New Mexico non-resident elk is is worth it?

[Deleted member 40315]

So I’m trying to break this down as a DIY elk hunter this year for 2020 in NM. Forget about archery and focus on rifle. If unsuccessful in the draw your application fee is about the only thing you don’t get back; it says on the website that the license (“hunting”) is refunded if no draw is rewarded.

My only concerns is that the draw odds are so low in most of these units (ie .3%-5%) that odds in drawing would be nothing short of a miracle. I guess I’m just missing it. Why are some of these online hunters pushing New Mexico for a no brainer application? The odds are super low as a nonresident and non-guided....I might have a better chance at lottery hunting tickets than spend the interest on my refundable tag. Please suggest to me a different way of looking at the odds so that the application makes sense to apply as a nonresident unguided elk hunter....thanks!

The hunting license is refundable; the only cost would be interest and the application fee (around @ most $30) maybe that would be worth rolling the dice. Thank you for any clarity. But for $30 the draw odds realistically on most of these units is <.01% with all the unguided nonresidents applying...just left scratching my head on why I shouldn’t focus elsewhere. Thanks for the clarity.

thanks for the suggestions and clarity, but please don’t say,”awesome, one less guy I don’t have to compete with....”. The odds are still super low regardless if I apply or not as a nonresident. It would take thousands of nonresident unguided hunters to make a % change to increase success. Let’s talk this through. Thanks.

 

[NMGuy]

The Hunting License is not refundable. From page 13 of the 20-21 Regs:

"When applying for draw licenses for Barbary sheep, bighorn sheep, deer, elk, ibex, javelina, oryx and pronghorn, hunters must purchase a nonrefundable 2020–21 game-hunting license or game-hunting & fishing license and HMAV if applicable."

So, that's $69 for the hunting license and HMAV, plus the $13 application fee. You're buying a $82 lottery ticket for rifle hunts. You can find other hunts where you might have better odds of drawing a tag, but obviously those hunts will have lower success odds. If you only want to hunt rifle and aren't willing to risk the money, focusing elsewhere might be your best bet.

People (myself included) love NM because everyone has the same odds. For a non-resident who only wants to hunt rifle, you all have the same crappy odds. Prior to the hunting license becoming non-refundable, NM was seen as a low risk state with potentially high reward. Now that we have the non-refundable hunting license, I'm wondering if more people will look to other states so at least they can get a point for future years.

 

[Alabama]

For some reason a record number of people applied last year when the license fee became non-refundable. I used to apply for elk, barbary sheep, antelope, and oryx for $52. The odds were bad but it was so cheap that it was a no-brainer to throw your name in the hat. Now it's getting expensive with the $69 non-refundable license and stamp plus $13 per species. I actually applied for more species last year than normal hoping to get something out of the non-refundable license, and I think others did as well. I haven't decided whether to apply this year or not because my odds for CO elk should be >99%. Now that NM won't round NR quotas up like they used to odds will get a little worse. Antelope will be almost impossible to draw for a DIY NR.

If you're just looking at rifle elk, I don't think it's worth it. If you were going to add deer, some of those odds aren't that bad. Whatever you decide: good luck!

 

[LCH]

It's all relative. A lot of guys that apply in NM are also applying in a half-dozen other states.

NM is still cheaper than most, and you have some chance of drawing each year.

NM would never be my "Plan A" to draw a tag, but for the cost of a tank of gas you're in the running for a really high quality experience.

 

[hank4elk]

Time has changed from 10 yrs ago.
200k extra applicants the last 2 years in NM,roughly ,and the Hunt lic. fee is not refundable now....like UT was 15 yrs ago etc., except there are no refunds in UT. You had to buy a lic just to keep points and that is when I quit UT....and OR,AZ and every other state. I have not applied in other states in 10 years because of this reason,terrible odds & cost of tags.
The drop from 10% NR to 6% did not help either. But it helped the poor outfitters...that and no NR cow tags really added to how folks applied.
Backwards state, terrible odds and pricey tags....they even talk different,I wouldn't bother either....lol

 

[Trial153]

I can think of worse things to spend money on..... NM dispite its terrible outfitter and landowner welfare programs is still worth applying to provided you can hunt a the tag if drawn.
I am really disapointed with the pronghorn changes however and will probably be for going tbose apps in the future unless they change back to something more reasonable

 

[Big Bore]

Last year was my first year to put in for NM draw. My hunting buddy and I put 16B as a first choice, thinking for sure there was no way. Guess what...we drew on our first try. In my opinion it's worth the non-refundable fee.

Didn't kill, but learned a lot and had a great time. Tough conditions all around.

The outfitter we used for a drop camp, however, was a borderline scam.

 

[Fisherkid1]

Last year was my first year to put in for NM draw. My hunting buddy and I put 16B as a first choice, thinking for sure there was no way. Guess what...we drew on our first try. In my opinion it's worth the non-refundable fee.

Didn't kill, but learned a lot and had a great time. Tough conditions all around.

The outfitter we used for a drop camp, however, was a borderline scam.

Also my first time applying, I drew my first choice and had a blast.
At 2.5%.and being one of 4 NR tags I believe.
I did it DIY, spike camped, in elk daily.
I will put in again if I don't draw AZ.
Worth the $

 

[Deleted member 40315]

The Hunting License is not refundable. From page 13 of the 20-21 Regs:

"When applying for draw licenses for Barbary sheep, bighorn sheep, deer, elk, ibex, javelina, oryx and pronghorn, hunters must purchase a nonrefundable 2020–21 game-hunting license or game-hunting & fishing license and HMAV if applicable."

So, that's $69 for the hunting license and HMAV, plus the $13 application fee. You're buying a $82 lottery ticket for rifle hunts. You can find other hunts where you might have better odds of drawing a tag, but obviously those hunts will have lower success odds. If you only want to hunt rifle and aren't willing to risk the money, focusing elsewhere might be your best bet.

People (myself included) love NM because everyone has the same odds. For a non-resident who only wants to hunt rifle, you all have the same crappy odds. Prior to the hunting license becoming non-refundable, NM was seen as a low risk state with potentially high reward. Now that we have the non-refundable hunting license, I'm wondering if more people will look to other states so at least they can get a point for future years.

Thanks for the reply. I was confused myself on the possibility of a refundable hunting license but you’ve cleared that up nicely Yeah you have a good perspective. I’m doing the calculations and “to each each their own” but I think your right. I’m probably going to take that money and think about some monthly lottery draws (mathematically, waaayyyy better odds). And again, everyone has their own perspective. Archery doesn’t fit into my season this year so rifle is my only option and % numbers they are super bad. Thanks for the reply and shedding some light on this topic of conversation.

 

[ImBillT]

I live near the NM border, and there are some easy to draw deer units nearby with very low success rates, and some hard to draw units with high success rates. Being close to home its an easy trip, and the terrain is familiar. I wouldn’t know how to hunt a mountain mule deer. Without that, I might back out. When I started applying I applied for quite a bit, and was only out application fees. When I finally decided to try elk, there were three or four hunt codes with 100% draw odds. Almost no public land in the units, half was inaccessible. Last year those hunt codes had around 10% odds, and on top of that, with the new rounding, there won’t even be a tag for a NR. It was a state with opportunity, plus the chance at some serious quality. The perfect blend. I still like the random draw. Point make you choose between hunting the crappy place now or the amazing place later....if you live long enough, pay enough money, and don’t hunt in the meantime. With NM’s draw system, you can apply for the amazing place and the crappy place, and you’re not punished for hunting the crappy place by loosing points. Still...with the crappy place getting a lot harder to draw and the license no longer being refundable, it’s not the value state that it once was. Hunting the crappy place is only worth the tag cost, time, and fuel if you can hunt it again soon with the knowledge you gained. When even the crappy place becomes a once in a decade hunt, it’s not worth it. You’re better off not drawing it.

 

[Deleted member 40315]

Also my first time applying, I drew my first choice and had a blast.
At 2.5%.and being one of 4 NR tags I believe.
I did it DIY, spike camped, in elk daily.
I will put in again if I don't draw AZ.
Worth the $

A few of the other posts on here included “camps or spike camps”. I’m specifically referring to diy non-resident with no outfitter. These specific %s are almost 3% at best. If you go with an outfitter yes, %s go up to 40+%. I don’t want to confuse anyone but I'm only talking about nonresident diy with no outfitter. The odds are really low; <3%. And for those that drew, To you. Luck was on your side, but it sounds like you applied and drew with an outfitter; odds are completely different there. I’m probably going to stick to Colorado, Montana, Arizona, and Wyoming specifically nonresident diy. Accruing points with a no refundable license is better in my opinion; and it’s only an opinion. Some people are right but luck does occur and To you but it doesn’t happen to everyone. In today’s systems a budget hunter is looking for the best odds tat fit their budget. Th is to everyone that contributes to this thread. I’m interested in seeing what the “YouTube” hunters have to say about this issue this year before application in NM.

 

[Matt R]

Now that NM won't round NR quotas up like they used to odds will get a little worse.

So I received a message before submitting my pronghorn application this year that said it was extremely unlikely that I would draw in a particular unit I applied for due to a very real possibility that no tags would be left for non-residents; it was a unit that had 10 tags I believe last year but a non-resident has received a license the past several years even though there was a 6% cap in place previously. I mulled calling their g&f to discuss but Did something change in how they apply the 6% cap this year from how it was applied in previous years so that unit license quotas featuring 10 tags (or 15) won’t produce a NR tag this year?

 

[ImBillT]

So I received a message before submitting my pronghorn application this year that said it was extremely unlikely that I would draw in a particular unit I applied for due to a very real possibility that no tags would be left for non-residents; it was a unit that had 10 tags I believe last year but a non-resident has received a license the past several years even though there was a 6% cap in place previously. I mulled calling their g&f to discuss but Did something change in how they apply the 6% cap this year from how it was applied in previous years so that unit license quotas featuring 10 tags (or 15) won’t produce a NR tag this year?

A) Prior to last year, there were only a few pronghorn hunt codes with 10 tags or fewer. Due to splitting up the hunt codes there are now a lot of codes with fewer than ten tags.

B) Prior to THIS YEAR, the tag rounding situation was such that hunt codes with 9 or more tags guaranteed a non-resident at least one tag because they would round up. This year, with the new rounding, only hunt codes with 13 or more tags guarantee a non-resident a tag. Under the old rounding, hunt codes with 10 tags would issue 11 if 8 or more residents applied, and at least one non-resident and outfitted applicant applied. That pushed resident tags below 84% of actual tags, even though they were receiving their allotted NUMBER of tags, so residents got upset. I doubt you’ll draw a lope tag on a hunt code with fewer than 13 tags.

I didn’t catch that change till someone in the NM pronghorn thread pointed it out, and explained the details of the old and new rounding better. The take away is this, the old rounding insured tags for NRs in codes with 9 or more tags. The new rounding only does that for codes with 13 or more tags.

 

[CForest]

Couple things I like about NM, everyone has the same chance (in the specific draw) and you get 3 choices. It is more expensive then it used to be but its no worse than any other state.

 

[2rocky]

I think everyone early in the points accumulation in other states would be well served to apply in states with no point system.

I was a blind squirrel in NM, and I found a nice nut...i'm not a fan of the 2 day antelope season though...

Can't bank on it but can't pass it up either.

 

[ImBillT]

I was a little down on NM earlier. That’s because their odds are dropping. I used to think I’d hunt a crap tag every couple years and love it cause id learn it. Their odds have dropped enough that you really can’t do that anymore. All that said, they have some great hunts with FAR BETTER odds than similar hunts for PROPLE ENTERING the system. Point systems are only good to the first entrants, and that won’t even be the case if NM or ID turns to points. Being the last two hold outs, EVERYONE will enter if they go to points, and they’ll be so bad so fast it’s not even funny. NM had the perfect system. Shoot for the moon, shoot for the middle, and go for any hunt you’d be happy with, and you won’t be punished for drawing. With point systems, if you apply for an easy unit, you’ll never draw the top end. In NM you can put the lowest end hunt you would accept as a third choice and not be harmed(lose points) by drawing it. It’s not what it once was. The non-refundable license and two consecutive years of record apps has really put a damper on NM, but BY NO MEANS do I want them to change their system.

 

[Deleted member 40315]

I was a little down on NM earlier. That’s because their odds are dropping. I used to think I’d hunt a crap tag every couple years and love it cause id learn it. Their odds have dropped enough that you really can’t do that anymore. All that said, they have some great hunts with FAR BETTER odds than similar hunts for PROPLE ENTERING the system. Point systems are only good to the first entrants, and that won’t even be the case if NM or ID turns to points. Being the last two hold outs, EVERYONE will enter if they go to points, and they’ll be so bad so fast it’s not even funny. NM had the perfect system. Shoot for the moon, shoot for the middle, and go for any hunt you’d be happy with, and you won’t be punished for drawing. With point systems, if you apply for an easy unit, you’ll never draw the top end. In NM you can put the lowest end hunt you would accept as a third choice and not be harmed(lose points) by drawing it. It’s not what it once was. The non-refundable license and two consecutive years of record apps has really put a damper on NM, but BY NO MEANS do I want them to change their system.

Thank you for the response. I appreciate your honesty and perspective on different states. Maybe your right about the odds being so low these day because everyone is applying. Again, it’s just debilitating to read these results in the odds records for non-residents with no guide and see .01% or at best 3%. I’ve considered looking at other options for hunts when looking into my budget. But then again, I keep hearing that 1% that drew and you can’t win if you don’t participate. Thanks for the invite and good luck this coming season.

 

[Matt R]

Thank you for the response. I appreciate your honesty and perspective on different states. Maybe your right about the odds being so low these day because everyone is applying. Again, it’s just debilitating to read these results in the odds records for non-residents with no guide and see .01% or at best 3%. I’ve considered looking at other options for hunts when looking into my budget. But then again, I keep hearing that 1% that drew and you can’t win if you don’t participate. Thanks for the invite and good luck this coming season.

As Randy has said many times, the best way to increase odds in all of the states is to put more animals on the ground to hunt. I feel like if we all spent just a fraction of all the time we (me certainly included) spend splitting draw odds every which way, going over which states are better than others and on and on and put a little extra money (aside from our license fees) and, even better, our time into conservation efforts, we would get much closer to the opportunity all of us want. We all need to ask ourselves what extra thing can we do to put more hooves on the ground.

 

[shb]

cant you just buy a landowner tag?

 

[Bigjav]

As Randy has said many times, the best way to increase odds in all of the states is to put more animals on the ground to hunt. I feel like if we all spent just a fraction of all the time we (me certainly included) spend splitting draw odds every which way, going over which states are better than others and on and on and put a little extra money (aside from our license fees) and, even better, our time into conservation efforts, we would get much closer to the opportunity all of us want. We all need to ask ourselves what extra thing can we do to put more hooves on the ground.

I agree with half your statement that more animals mean more tags.. however I don’t think the fish and game agencies want more animals on the mountain because it cuts into their bottom line, which I think is apparent by the recent changes. So in the meantime the hunting public will continue to fight each other over the crumbs that fish and game agencies allow us and they’ll continue to laugh all the way to the bank