Montana Mule Deer Mismanagement

[TheJason]

So what are the solutions? @SAJ-99 brought up some good points. If you can’t counter those, how do you expect to convince anyone FWP needs to manage differently?

Think some valid questions are:

1) based upon the rose petal theory, why are does harvested on public land?
2) is any work done to evaluate population distribution during the late summer and into hunting season? Is it troublesome from a management perspective to have so few animals distributed on public land?
3) transect areas are heavily slanted towards private land (probably because of wintering areas originally), has any thought been given to adding public land transects?
4) how do transect numbers compare to 10 years ago? 20? 30?
5) are pre and postseason counts done to establish buck to doe ratios? Do these correspond to estimates harvest?

@antlerradar nailed it. The intense focus on opportunity has completely eliminated quality hunting on public land. Doe tags will never hit zero because of depredation complaints. Ever.

But FWP can abandon the long failed paradigm of allowing hunters to self distribute where the deer are. The “macro management” has pretty well shown itself a failure.

Maybe a fair question to ask is, why not adopt the same strategy for managing sheep? Issue x number of tags and let the hunters self distribute. We all know the answer is a hard no, as it should be.

Mule deer hunting has changed drastically and needs to deviate much more towards the sheep paradigm than the existing mule deer paradigm. Smaller districts. More intense pre and post hunt counts. Better harvest data. Better defined management goals that account for hunter access to animals.

 

[rogerthat]

People don't like population surveys or the resulting numbers.

I don’t think it has anything to do with not liking population surveys. People are very skeptical of the survey results. What @DougStickney aka dougfuckinsticky is saying is that the population counts show a recovery but when you’re out on the landscape it doesn’t seem like the numbers have recovered sometimes not even close. I will give you my personal knowledge of one of the flight areas. In the 90s the area burned, I hunted it solidly in 2003. I couldn’t believe the number of deer I saw. It was insane. 400 or more in a couple days. I continued to hunt that area intermittently. Fast forward to 2019, talk to the bio. Record counts going back the 80s. 93 deer. Wtf. I can’t find 60 deer in that entire area that year which would be 2/3s of the ones counted. Now maybe 20 this year. So what gives? Honest question. Did they fly real fast in the late 90s early 2000s? That’s where some of the skepticism comes from.

Keep in mind you have guys on here such as myself that have hunted areas for 30 years. We have seen the changes. A lot of these bios might be 30 years old…might be

 

[BuzzH]

I don't dismiss the themes. I actually agree with them in principle. People don't like population surveys or the resulting numbers. Most views have ranged from FWP is incompetent to it being totally corrupt. Anyone suggest how to better way to measure wildlife over the various terrain of 145,000 sq miles of Montana? That is the problem. I bring that up and suddenly i'm the problem. LOL.

I don't think this thread represents the broader group of Res hunters in Montana. It seems like an echo chamber. I sure hope I'm wrong, but I know where I would place my bet. Most just want to get theirs why they can.

Making excuses...you have a solid resume to apply for a position with FWP.

 

[TheJason]

Wtf. I can’t find 60 deer in that entire area that year which would be 2/3s of the ones counted. Now maybe 20 this year. So what gives? Honest question. Did they fly real fast in the late 90s early 2000s? That’s where some of the skepticism comes from.

Fair questions. But how do you disprove their data?

 

[BuzzH]

Fair questions. But how do you disprove their data?

For Christ sake...it's already been pointed out:

Population estimate of a max of 70 bulls. Harvest estimate 86 bulls.

How in the actual hell do you kill more bulls than you have?

You can't eat a dozen apples if you only have 6... Good grief.

 

[brockel]

Keep in mind you have guys on here such as myself that have hunted areas for 30 years. We have seen the changes. A lot of these bios might be 30 years old…might be

It’s a kick in the junk to see what the mule deer numbers have become where I grew up. And it’s just not the public.

 

[SAJ-99]

Making excuses...you have a solid resume to apply for a position with FWP.

I try to think of counter arguments. Increasing the number of transects to include more public land is a great suggestion. FWP excuse is plane time and fuel costs money. So we end up at increasing tag fees to compensate. Im for that too.
It’s how you prep for a debate so you don’t get your ass handed to you. Carry on with your complaining…

 

[DFS]

Fair questions. But how do you disprove their data?

Just a Little Slow.

 

[SAJ-99]

For Christ sake...it's already been pointed out:

Population estimate of a max of 70 bulls. Harvest estimate 86 bulls.

How in the actual hell do you kill more bulls than you have?

You can't eat a dozen apples if you only have 6... Good grief.

No one is arguing against your point. But it raises questions on if the harvest model is a problem or the population model. I can say for sure the pop mode has a larger confidence range, because a dead elk is a dead elk. Can’t argue that. But regardless, it’s a statistics problem and doesn’t necessarily refute the methodology.

Part of the issue most have is FWP publishes a single number. Population, harvest, whatever. The number is 100% wrong, but they don’t tell you how wrong it could be.

 

[TheJason]

For Christ sake...it's already been pointed out:

Population estimate of a max of 70 bulls. Harvest estimate 86 bulls.

How in the actual hell do you kill more bulls than you have?

You can't eat a dozen apples if you only have 6... Good grief.

That’s one district. And which number is false? Harvest or population? You can’t use one district to disprove many.

I knew a biologist in an area I won’t name. He was so incompetent the pilot of the plane had better counts than he did. But, the neighboring biologists had excellent and accurate data.

I also knew a biologist who refused to fly and count elk in the area. Said it was a waste of time so he just didn’t do it.

 

[TheJason]

Just a Little Slow.

No I’m not Doug. I probably have a little more understanding than you think. I’m certainly not saying I’m right on anything or everything. I’ll bow out and let geniuses like you carry the torch.

Good luck.

 

[Hunting Wife]

View attachment 254257
Here’s where the counts are done. The majority are private land strong holds. You think they are counting every deer or you think they are making a few assumptions. This is where your “data” is coming from @SAJ-99. Along with a record count from 2019 on one of the public land areas that to say nicely simply isn’t possible.

Typically they select wintering areas to survey, since it happens in the winter. Can you point to some public ground wintering areas that they should be surveying?

One possibility for some discrepancies that everyone seems to ignore is that winter population estimates tell you absolutely nothing about distribution during hunting season. Without knowing the difference, it’s very difficult to make any meaningful guesses at potential solutions.

 

[TheJason]

Typically they select wintering areas to survey, since it happens in the winter. Can you point to some public ground wintering areas that they should be surveying?

One possibility for some discrepancies that everyone seems to ignore is that winter population estimates tell you absolutely nothing about distribution during hunting season. Without knowing the difference, it’s very difficult to make any meaningful guesses at potential solutions.

You must be slow too.

 

[Hunting Wife]

You must be slow too.

It’s the wine.

Just curious if the most vocal complainers have any suggestions, or just more complaints? Railing just to rail gets old.

 

[brocksw]

Just as an FYI, MT appears to do their aerial survey between Dec 1 and Jan 15. Then the spring survey is conducted between March 15 and April 30.

For whatever it's worth, by comparison ND does their fall count in October, and their spring count in May.

However, I'd recommend reading the attached pdf. That may address some of the questions being posed here about FWP methods and perspective. They talk directly about their survey areas, public vs private land, telemetry data, etc.

 

[DFS]

It’s the wine.

Just curious if the most vocal complainers have any suggestions, or just more complaints? Railing just to rail gets old.

View attachment 254290

You could do anything but the current management and help things. I have not suggested ideas because I know how far from reality it is. I’m not sure I’ve disagreed with an idea that’s been pitched. Just don’t shoot more deer or add on any seasons. Anything else is a win.

 

[rogerthat]

It’s the wine.

Just curious if the most vocal complainers have any suggestions, or just more complaints? Railing just to rail gets old.

View attachment 254290

Not sure that I’m a vocal complainer but if I am I will take that to mean I know my crap when it comes to mule deer, but I laid out my suggestions. I definitely would like to see fwp acquire more and better data. So that would mean more flight transects to tighten up those confidence intervals or whatever. Paid for by resident license increases.

I will freely admit I have never counted deer from a plane. My grandma always said flying is like poison, one drop will kill you.

 

[BuzzH]

I try to think of counter arguments. Increasing the number of transects to include more public land is a great suggestion. FWP excuse is plane time and fuel costs money. So we end up at increasing tag fees to compensate. Im for that too.
It’s how you prep for a debate so you don’t get your ass handed to you. Carry on with your complaining…

Gee...I don't know, maybe throw your shit population model in the dumpster where it belongs and manage based on observed animals.

Maybe quit flying the same routes for "consistency"....and fly where animals actually exist?

I don't know maybe used peer reviewed science to manage native goat populations instead of wiping then out of the bitterroot.

Stop lying about shoulder seasons.

Stop killing mule deer does, like 20 years ago.

Manage pronghorn in a way other than 1/3 of the state being one unit.

Change season dates to something other than the same as seasons in 1957.

Montana management is a joke.

 

[BuzzH]

That’s one district. And which number is false? Harvest or population? You can’t use one district to disprove many.

I knew a biologist in an area I won’t name. He was so incompetent the pilot of the plane had better counts than he did. But, the neighboring biologists had excellent and accurate data.

I also knew a biologist who refused to fly and count elk in the area. Said it was a waste of time so he just didn’t do it.

You're the expert, you tell me which is dogshit...I suspect both.

Another question I asked the biologist was how likely it was to fly and find the exact same number of elk, 2 consecutive years in a row. He said just about impossible and then I emailed him his own flight "counts" that did just that.

There's more but I'd be giving away where I hunt if I posted it.

The

 

[TheJason]

You're the expert, you tell me which is dogshit...I suspect both.

No, I’m not the expert. Not sure why you’re taking this approach.

The point I was trying to make was just because data from one district is a mess doesn’t necessarily extrapolate to neighboring districts. Which, then confounds everything even more.

I have little faith in Montana’s harvest data. I do have faith in SOME of the population data. I have zero faith in Helena’s directives.