Montana Drawing Statistics Data Question

[brocksw]

Imaginary elk unit
Bonus points /5 yr average chances of drawing with said bonus points
0 = 10%
1 = 25%
2 = 45%
3 =72%
4 = 89%
5 = 99%


In year 202X you might have 5 out of 10 people with 1 bonus point draw.

But no one in their God damn right mind would choose 1 point over say...4 points for the following years draw.

Those success percentages might fluctuate up 5% one year and down 7% the next year... But assuming no world record bull is shot out of that unit, or randy doesn't go a shoot a 400" bull and share his location with everyone...and available tags stay about the same....those numbers will prove to be a very predictable year in and year out.


Now...like in the OPs example...like with bighorn sheep in MT...like with some of the Nevada units where they only give out like 5 tags....having more points still increases your odds but...its such a small sample size (so few tags drawn out of such a large pool) that statistical trends don't get a chance to develop as they would lead you to believe. But, the more tags you draw out of that pool the stronger your statistical predictions will become.

 

[Walkalot]

I disagree that it fluctuates that much on the top tier units. Fairly steady since they destroyed the actual gardiner hunt from what i can c.

 

[SAJ-99]

Maybe a dumb question, but I don't know the dumb answer either way.

When I look over past detailed bonus point drawing statistics for Montana there's always a row in both the R and NR data that has an empty "number of points" cell, but still lists the number of applicants in the next cell over.

What's going on with the points for these applicants? There seems to be a lot of them in some units.

Attaching a screenshot example from 2020 results for the most top secret honey hole mule deer unit in the state. The rows I'm asking about are highlighted in yellow.

The most interesting thing to me is the NR pool. Only one permit was given out to a NR that wasn't a landowner. Even with double digit points odds are you will be dead before you get that tag. Buy land in that zone and your odds jump dramatically.

 

[Seeleylakehunter]

I'm over here not putting in for any tags anywhere. Just buying the general deer elk bear upland and waterfowl every year . Everyone stressin out bout numbers and whatnot.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I'm over here not putting in for any tags anywhere. Just buying the general deer elk bear upland and waterfowl every year . Everyone stressin out bout numbers and whatnot.

I can tell you one mathematical certainty, you sir will not draw a sheep tag this year.

 

[Beignet]

The most interesting thing to me is the NR pool. Only one permit was given out to a NR that wasn't a landowner. Even with double digit points odds are you will be dead before you get that tag. Buy land in that zone and your odds jump dramatically.

I’ve been seeing that NR landowner draw for a few years now. I tried messing around in the cadastral to figure out who has that sweet deal.

More intriguing to me is the resident landowner who finally decided to burn 17 points on the unit last year.

Mathematically though, I probably have a better chance of drawing the lone NR tag than ever having enough money to buy that kind of acreage down there.

 

[Walkalot]

The residental landowner that burned 17, married in. Smart man.

 

[Beignet]

The residental landowner that burned 17, married in. Smart man.

That’s it, I’m spending my summer trying to talk up ladies at the Sula Country Store.

 

[8andcounting]

You just won't give it up huh?

I’m right . It’s unpredictable. Just admit it and move on

 

[8andcounting]

Imaginary elk unit
Bonus points /5 yr average chances of drawing with said bonus points
0 = 10%
1 = 25%
2 = 45%
3 =72%
4 = 89%
5 = 99%


In year 202X you might have 5 out of 10 people with 1 bonus point draw.

But no one in their God damn right mind would choose 1 point over say...4 points for the following years draw.

Those success percentages might fluctuate up 5% one year and down 7% the next year... But assuming no world record bull is shot out of that unit, or randy doesn't go a shoot a 400" bull and share his location with everyone...and available tags stay about the same....those numbers will prove to be a very predictable year in and year out.


Now...like in the OPs example...like with bighorn sheep in MT...like with some of the Nevada units where they only give out like 5 tags....having more points still increases your odds but...its such a small sample size (so few tags drawn out of such a large pool) that statistical trends don't get a chance to develop as they would lead you to believe. But, the more tags you draw out of that pool the stronger your statistical predictions will become.

Imaginary unit might be 89% with 4 points one year and 0% next is what u don’t get .

 

[8andcounting]

So u can’t count on it being 89% when u apply . Jesus Christ man give it up

 

[Edwin]

Imaginary unit might be 89% with 4 points one year and 0% next is what u don’t get .

The volatility of obtaining a combo is going to make this even worse. You could have all the bonus points in the world but if you can't get your hands on a combo before the permit drawing you have zero chance. I know several folks that got returned combos which means they missed out on the permit draw and of course losing PP making it near impossible to get in on permit draw the following year. Best odds of drawing a permit are to sit on the sidelines and banking PP and BP and donating the $250 every year. Lose, lose

 

[BuzzH]

The volatility of obtaining a combo is going to make this even worse. You could have all the bonus points in the world but if you can't get your hands on a combo before the permit drawing you have zero chance. I know several folks that got returned combos which means they missed out on the permit draw and of course losing PP making it near impossible to get in on permit draw the following year. Best odds of drawing a permit are to sit on the sidelines and banking PP and BP and donating the $250 every year. Lose, lose

Native OT NR license has its advantages...for half price. Win-win.

 

[Edwin]

Native OT NR license has its advantages...for half price. Win-win.

Touché. I keep forgetting that because I wasn't born in MT and am currently not a resident of Wyoming that I can't have an elk tag or an opinion. Sooorry

 

[brownbear932008]

The volatility of obtaining a combo is going to make this even worse. You could have all the bonus points in the world but if you can't get your hands on a combo before the permit drawing you have zero chance. I know several folks that got returned combos which means they missed out on the permit draw and of course losing PP making it near impossible to get in on permit draw the following year. Best odds of drawing a permit are to sit on the sidelines and banking PP and BP and donating the $250 every year. Lose, lose

I think this is what some folks are actually missing here it isn't just black and white. I am familiar with some of the folks situation here and they had 0% chance with what would have been most likely the highest points in the unit this year. Gotta draw that combo first before your name is even in the hat. Shitty system that I hope to be out of soon.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Imaginary unit might be 89% with 4 points one year and 0% next is what u don’t get .

That’s not mathematically possible.

 

[LousyResident]

I feel like @8andcounting is talking about actual results while the rest of the group is talking statistical odds. . . .

 

[brocksw]

I feel like @8andcounting is talking about actual results while the rest of the group is talking statistical odds. . . .

Results can still be statistical anomalies.

If you apply for a unit with 70% odds for your given points and it's been 70% odds year in and year out for those points then it's safe to assume 7 out 10 times you will pull the tag. The 30% that doesn't draw didn't have 0% odds they simply fell victim to the 30% share that unsuccessful.

Just because someone with 1 point drew and they didn't doesn't mean they were better off having 1 point. It was just a statistical anomaly.

He's right that there is a minor level of randomness compared to a straight pref point draw. But the statistical trends of who draws a tag and who doesn't still favors, by an order of magnitude, those with the most points. The only time that can appear to be untrue is when there lots of applicants and very few tags. Those statistical trends dont get a chance to develop when you're only sampling .5% or in some cases less, of the pool.

I would also add that there's enough applicants to level out the wildcard of the general draw. As we know In the last 3 years the general draw has become increasingly difficult to draw. Yet look at the breaks tags, the 900 tag, their draw odds are unchanged. You'd never even know there was another variable in play. Their draw odds remain consistent.

Just because one year a few people draw with 1 point means nothing. And no one...I mean No One would chose 1 point and say 10% success over 5 points and 99% success.

 

[brocksw]

I feel like @8andcounting is talking about actual results while the rest of the group is talking statistical odds. . . .

What's funny about what you're saying is the results are what give us data to calculate statistical odds. We base our entire application strategies on the results of previous draws. That's how we have have such solid evidence about when we can expect to draw.

 

[LousyResident]

Results can still be statistical anomalies.

If you apply for a unit with 70% odds for your given points and it's been 70% odds year in and year out for those points then it's safe to assume 7 out 10 times you will pull the tag. The 30% that doesn't draw didn't have 0% odds they simply fell victim to the 30% share that unsuccessful.

Just because someone with 1 point drew and they didn't doesn't mean they were better off having 1 point. It was just a statistical anomaly.

He's right that there is a minor level of randomness compared to a straight pref point draw. But the statistical trends of who draws a tag and who doesn't still favors, by an order of magnitude, those with the most points. The only time that can appear to be untrue is when there lots of applicants and very few tags. Those statistical trends dont get a chance to develop when you're only sampling .5% or in some cases less, of the pool.

I would also add that there's enough applicants to level out the wildcard of the general draw. As we know In the last 3 years the general draw has become increasingly difficult to draw. Yet look at the breaks tags, the 900 tag, their draw odds are unchanged. You'd never even know there was another variable in play. Their draw odds remain consistent.

Just because one year a few people draw with 1 point means nothing. And no one...I mean No One would chose 1 point and say 10% success over 5 points and 99% success.

I understand all that. I'm just guessing his phrasing is wrong.

Meaning that, he's looking at a group where only 1 our 10 drew and saying, "This year they only had 10% draw odds" but meaning, "10% of them drew this year".