Montana Drawing Statistics Data Question

[BuzzH]

For sheep, certainly. Max points gets a guy 4% vs 1 point having less than 1/10 of a percent.

500 applicants maxed out, each with their name in the hat 289 times fighting for 25 tags is a joke.

Right, but you aren't just fighting the max point pool...you're fighting the entire pool clear down to first time applicants.

 

[Stone_Ice_1]

Right, but you aren't just fighting the max point pool...you're fighting the entire pool clear down to first time applicants.

Of course, everybody has a chance in the Montana system. The points give you a better chance to draw and squaring them does make a difference as compared to just a linear point system. However it doesn't make you have a "good" chance in the hard to draw districts. If you have max points your chance of drawing is much better than somebody with less points (about 400 times better than somebody with 0 points) but in a hard to draw district somebody with 0 points has something like a .0001% chance of drawing. Multiple that by 400 and you still only get .0400% chance of drawing. Is it better than the guy with 0 points, you bet. Is it good chances to draw, hell no.

I do have an advanced degree in statistics and have talked quite extensively with FWP about their draw system.

 

[LukeDuke]

Exactly . This is the point I was trying to make yesterday In the other thread about the draw. Some people just don’t comprehend. It’s still a random draw

The hunting wife in our party was the only one to draw a limited entry bull permit last yr and that lucky little crap drew it again this yr. Her husband hasn’t drawn it for 3 seasons now. At least we get to go chase bugles and for that we are grateful.

 

[Beignet]

Of course, everybody has a chance in the Montana system. The points give you a better chance to draw and squaring them does make a difference as compared to just a linear point system. However it doesn't make you have a "good" chance in the hard to draw districts. If you have max points your chance of drawing is much better than somebody with less points (about 400 times better than somebody with 0 points) but in a hard to draw district somebody with 0 points has something like a .0001% chance of drawing. Multiple that by 400 and you still only get .0400% chance of drawing. Is it better than the guy with 0 points, you bet. Is it good chances to draw, hell no.

I do have an advanced degree in statistics and have talked quite extensively with FWP about their draw system.

I was just about to ask if anyone out there knew what they were doing and wanted to run these squared numbers through R or whatever program is popular with the quant folks these days.

 

[Hawk Tuah]

Correct and over time the squared bonus point system give you no statistical improved odds.

More tags, less applicants gives you better odds...not squared points.

Bonus squared would give me a much better chance...but I haven't been successful in getting Montana to square my points and not everyone else's.

 

[BuzzH]

Of course, everybody has a chance in the Montana system. The points give you a better chance to draw and squaring them does make a difference as compared to just a linear point system. However it doesn't make you have a "good" chance in the hard to draw districts. If you have max points your chance of drawing is much better than somebody with less points (about 400 times better than somebody with 0 points) but in a hard to draw district somebody with 0 points has something like a .0001% chance of drawing. Multiple that by 400 and you still only get .0400% chance of drawing. Is it better than the guy with 0 points, you bet. Is it good chances to draw, hell no.

I do have an advanced degree in statistics and have talked quite extensively with FWP about their draw system.

Would this be correct statistically?....lets just say its one point per year...one guy has 17, 10 guys have 16...11 total applicants.

So, there are a total of 177 "chances".

The guy with 17 has a 17/177 chance that his number will be picked from that group correct...or a 9.6% chance.

Square points for the same 11 guys...17 point guy has 289 chances...the 10 16 point guys have a combined 2,560 chances. So 289/2,849 total chances...so 17 point guy has a 10.1% chance in a squared point system.

So, squaring points increases odds by roughly .5% in that scenario? However, the odds are still 89.9% in favor of the tag being drawn by the 10 guys in the 16 squared pool?

Would that be right?

 

[phutch30]

I love these discussions. You guys way overthink it.....which might be worth it, if even under the best scenario the draw odds didn't suck. Put in and u either draw or you dont...crunching the numbers leads to people getting butt hurt when they dont draw even though they think they should based on their math. One of my associates isnt currently talking to me because he's butthurt I drew another breaks tag and hes yet to draw one even with max points. ...which just makes me laugh..which makes him more butthurt..which is even more funny....vicious cycle we fall into. LOL

 

[Deleted member 28227]

The other factor to all this is time. If one of the guys greenhorn alluded to had 4% at 17pts and then proceeded to put in for another 20 years...

Assuming the square points keeps you close to 4% each year you have decent odds at eventually drawing.

 

[Walkalot]

Just taking your words out of context to my benifit. Added buzz

 

[Walkalot]

Phutch are u talking about me. Iam rooting for your boy. I hope he slays a giant.

 

[phutch30]

The other factor to all this is time. If one of the guys greenhorn alluded to had 4% at 17pts and then proceeded to put in for another 20 years...

Assuming the square points keeps you close to 4% each year you have decent odds at eventually drawing.

except soooo many others have max points and theres so few tags you basically just maintain the status quo..forget about all the new people putting in. Every yr people draw 0.0% something sheep or other tags with no points just because theres so many of them putting in

 

[8andcounting]

What you don't comprehend is that statistics only provide predictable results over a large number of runs and not 37 draws out of thousands of numbers. I each individual draw of a number the higher points do have a much better chance. If we drew more like one third of the applicants you would start to see much more of a gradient across the numbers.

I never mentioned stats . I’m saying how it is . 10 points in a given LE unit might have been 33/34 last year snd 2/17 this year ,

 

[SAJ-99]

Would this be correct statistically?....lets just say its one point per year...one guy has 17, 10 guys have 16...11 total applicants.

So, there are a total of 177 "chances".

The guy with 17 has a 17/177 chance that his number will be picked from that group correct...or a 9.6% chance.

Square points for the same 11 guys...17 point guy has 289 chances...the 10 16 point guys have a combined 2,560 chances. So 289/2,849 total chances...so 17 point guy has a 10.1% chance in a squared point system.

So, squaring points increases odds by roughly .5% in that scenario? However, the odds are still 89.9% in favor of the tag being drawn by the 10 guys in the 16 squared pool?

Would that be right?

correct by my math

 

[phutch30]

Phutch are u talking about me. Iam rooting for your boy. I hope he slays a giant.

No not you. lol

 

[SAJ-99]

I never mentioned stats . I’m saying how it is . 10 points in a given LE unit might have been 33/34 last year snd 2/17 this year ,

Maybe, but unlikely. Not saying you can't find an example of the odds changing dramatically, but I would feel comfortable saying you don't want to waste the amount of time it would take to look. Every draw is a unique, independent event. The outcome may not look like the statistical distribution says it should. The person with 0 pts might get drawn, but the odds are magnitudes better for someone with a lot of pts.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

except soooo many others have max points and theres so few tags you basically just maintain the status quo..forget about all the new people putting in. Every yr people draw 0.0% something sheep or other tags with no points just because theres so many of them putting in

That's not how statistics work.

 

[brocksw]

What you don't comprehend is that statistics only provide predictable results over a large number of runs and not 37 draws out of thousands of numbers. I each individual draw of a number the higher points do have a much better chance. If we drew more like one third of the applicants you would start to see much more of a gradient across the numbers.

THANK YOU! Statistics 101!!!

 

[mtmuley]

It's kind of mind blowing how many adults can't wrap their head around grade school level math.

And the number that worry about it. I apply and check my results. It's a Montana thing. mtmuley

 

[brocksw]

Exactly . This is the point I was trying to make yesterday In the other thread about the draw. Some people just don’t comprehend. It’s still a random draw

You just won't give it up huh?

 

[Walkalot]

Math doesnt lie does it.