Im bowing out

[TN_Rifle_Junkie]

To give you some insight out east Tennessee. This is backwoods Appalachia near a larger city.

We oringinally paid $160k for our 2000 sq ft D-log cabin on a mountain, on a lake in 2017 just after the big Great Smoky Mountain National Park Fire that burned 2500 cabins and thousands of businesses. Housing prices were elevated then due to demand vs. supply.

Today, my neighbor across the street sold his identical cabin for $959k sight unseen to an investor from California. most of the cabins for sale in my neighborhood are seeling for at least $650k and up without a lake view.

Things are absolutely out of control in our area and you have to drive an additional hour out into the mountains to get away from all the price gouging. We would sell in a heartbeat, but then where do we go? It is not like there are properties available within 20 miles of my house that are not a meth house, or a rat trap. Even those sell for $400k.

I could not imagine buying a 1985 single wide trailer on 0.25 acres for $200k.

 

[SAJ-99]

Yes I understand how the payment works I'm just saying at some point even if it was zero interest the payment will be too much.

Oh, sorry. Yeah. What you need is to make more money.

In all seriousness, there are localized issues (bubbles) but nationwide it is a hard case to make. Once the Californians live in some of these places for a couple of years they will realize why they are Californians.

 

[Nick87]

Oh, sorry. Yeah. What you need is to make more money.

I was referring more to the general public, those stacked with college debt etc.

 

[Trap]

Probably a dumb question but couldn't inflation in itself cause a drop in real estate? I know housing is a necessity but I would think if/when food prices are so inflated buying a new/bigger house would be last as compared to traveling to work, groceries etc?

Yes- first will be higher interest rates making payments on same price of house way bigger. The fed has one tool to fight inflation, it’s interest rates. Market is pricing in roughly 5 interest rate increases this year. Second is way less discretionary income as more monthly income is gobbled up through higher fuel and grocery costs. More income will be used just for basic living needs and housing prices will have to come down. Supply and demand. Big builders have to keep creating supply just to stay in business but demand will fall off when there’s little demand and most buyers can’t afford current prices. Inflation will lead to higher interest rates making current prices even less affordable. Second ,inflation will use even more income of the average American , further reducing the ability to afford a house. Supply will still increase but demand will fall and prices will fall

 

[SAJ-99]

I was referring more to the general public, those stacked with college debt etc.

Ok, what they need to do is to make more money.

I think(completely guessing now) what the issue is is that you see “average” prices, but most purchases are being done by top 20%, and maybe top 10%, of earners. They are buying bigger houses, can afford the mortgage and it is skewing average. First time home buyers are screwed without a windfall inheritance from death in the family. The middle continues to disappear and people move to the Winners category or Losers category.

 

[Nick87]

Ok, what they need to do is to make more money.

I think(completely guessing now) what the issue is is that you see “average” prices, but most purchases are being done by top 20%, and maybe top 10%, of earners. They are buying bigger houses, can afford the mortgage and it is skewing average. First time home buyers are screwed without a windfall inheritance from death in the family. The middle continues to disappear and people move to the Winners category or Losers category.

I'd agree.

 

[Trap]

100 years isn’t really applicable, you weren’t alive… I definitely wasn’t alive and that’s the tail of the curve, the acceleration has been more recent, which is the argument. Inflation v. Housing was closer now it’s not, income growth v. Inflation was closer now it’s not.

View attachment 215290
Time frame for a boomer v. a millennial, why, simply to show there are some “environmental” differences and folks in both just played the hand they were dealt.

I (think) I understand what you are saying and it makes sense in the short term. I posted the increase for my lifetime in prior post and the average increase is 4.17 and inflation averaged 3.96. Anytime you look at long term returns after a recent run up it skews the average return number up significantly. I agree real estate is way less affordable right now, my only point is these excesses correct themselves over time. There will be a reversion to the mean in the long term appreciation of real estate. It has been slightly higher than inflation with periodic crazy price escalation. It will adjust. Homes will be affordable for the next generation of home buyers they just aren’t right now. Read up on the tulip bulb mania. I don’t like the 6.5 cm or the prc I have always favored 30 calibers

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I (think) I understand what you are saying and it makes sense in the short term. I posted the increase for my lifetime in prior post and the average increase is 4.17 and inflation averaged 3.96. Anytime you look at long term returns after a recent run up it skews the average return number up significantly. I agree real estate is way less affordable right now, my only point is these excesses correct themselves over time. There will be a reversion to the mean in the long term appreciation of real estate. It has been slightly higher than inflation with periodic crazy price escalation. It will adjust. Homes will be affordable for the next generation of home buyers they just aren’t right now. Read up on the tulip bulb mania. I don’t like the 6.5 cm or the prc I have always favored 30 calibers

I agree, generally, I think the caveat being some markets with low inventory. A lot of the small mountain towns our members live in are never going down. I remember the 08' drop, a ton of the spec 'golf course' houses took a massive hit... but those were like top 10% of inventory back in the day, i.e. if you're making 50k and a house drops from 1.8MM to 1.1MM does it really matter to you lol.

My parents house was an average affordable single family home and didn't lose value, didn't gain any, but that segment of the market has supply constraints. I do think the kids of a lot of our posters will have a real tough time trying to buy into their home towns.

I have a .300 win mag... I like it, but the .264 win mag is IMHO an amazing one rifle caliber, I think in it's day the 6.5 Swede was amazing. If you mostly wanted to hunt whitetails, but then wanted to take a Moose every once in a while... wouldn't be a bad choice

 

[SAJ-99]

Take predictions with a grain of salt, including mine, but the numbers are bad.

https://fortune.com/2022/03/14/housing-market-key-metric-inventory-zillow-bad-for-buyers/

 

[hank4elk]

So material prices never dropped after the mark up reasons.
Now I hear 300% increase of pretty much everything with the new made up reasons for currant inflation.

Glad I have materials & hardware lined up. Nailgun nails & screws were stupid high but I have them now for my projects. One box cost what I used to pay for 50lbs.

Glad I'm not looking to move or buy.

 

[JLS]

So material prices never dropped after the mark up reasons.
Now I hear 300% increase of pretty much everything with the new made up reasons for currant inflation.

Glad I have materials & hardware lined up. Nailgun nails & screws were stupid high but I have them now for my projects. One box cost what I used to pay for 50lbs.

Glad I'm not looking to move or buy.

7/16” OSB is still 48 bucks a sheet here.

 

[westbranch]

Looking at some real estate websites this morning. When I see a manufactured home on 2 acres for $650k and my first thought is that is appears somewhat reasonable I know that it is time to close the browser and step away from the computer.

 

[MarvB]

7/16” OSB is still 48 bucks a sheet here.

IF they have any in stock…

 

[hank4elk]

IF they have any in stock…

I have some under tarps for sheer from last year,$40 per sheet 7/16's.
I did not even look when I paid $400 for 4 boxes of nail gun nails. The last boxes cost $10 a box 6 years ago.
Have enough hardware for my porches & the shop now.

 

[SAJ-99]

Looking at some real estate websites this morning. When I see a manufactured home on 2 acres for $650k and my first thought is that is appears somewhat reasonable I know that it is time to close the browser and step away from the computer.

Double wide?

 

[TN2shot07]

Yep, with the crappy tin under pinning. They couldn’t even splurge on the fake brick…

 

[SwaggyD]

Looking at some real estate websites this morning. When I see a manufactured home on 2 acres for $650k and my first thought is that is appears somewhat reasonable I know that it is time to close the browser and step away from the computer.

Where at? Sounds like a steal!

 

[nontyp]

I saw childcare prices discussed a couple pages back. I’ll give you guys a real time cost on childcare since I’m working on my taxes. I paid a little over $30k in childcare last year for my 2 youngest kids. Prices keep climbing due to staffing issues and demand. Had to put deposits down at 2 different places just to try to get a spot when my youngest was born. You basically need to get on a waiting list as soon as you get pregnant.
Housing may be getting expensive, but you can always rent until prices correct. Childcare prices are getting crazy and are likely going to force a lot of young parents to stay home and/or limit themselves to 1 or 2 kids.

 

[TN2shot07]

Childcare prices are getting crazy and are likely going to force a lot of young parents to stay home and/or limit themselves to 1 or 2 kids.

Based on the way we are continuing to use resources, watching land disappear to development, and where the world in general is headed limiting how many children you have may not be the worst thought ever.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Based on the way we are continuing to use resources, watching land disappear to development, and where the world in general is headed limiting how many children you have may not be the worst thought ever.

The "we are running out of resources" angle to population was pushed in the 70's and none of the predictions have come true. In fact, most projections have the human population dropping in the future - something that is likely to create significant economic, social and political challenges we haven't faced in centuries.