Im bowing out

[DouglasR]

201 W Church St, Savoy, IL 61874 | Zillow

201 W Church St, Savoy IL, is a Single Family home that contains 772 sq ft and was built in 1951.It contains 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom.This home last sold for $120,000 in April 2022. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $145,600, which has increased by $2,520 in the last 30 days.The Rent...

www.zillow.com

How many college kids you think I could squeeze into this one?
That Bozeman market is played.

 

[DouglasR]

They just need to work harder...its all it takes, ask Shrapnel.

(I hear you and everyone but the guy stuck in 1960 agrees).

They could just like, not live in a vacation destination.
Monkey’s out of the hat dudes.
Cell phones.
Onx.
Ig
The mountains aren’t scary anymore.
I mean, it sucks to see it change, but no one’s ever like
“This is blasphemy! My son can’t afford a house in Malibu!”
#keeptahoetruetho

 

[rogerthat]

a modest 2700 square foot home with attached 24x28 garage

Is 2700 ft^2 modest? I grew up in a trailer house with 4 siblings. I think that plays into all this as well. Although in Bozeman...not much haha

 

[Deleted member 28227]

My biggest concern is where my kids are going to live and how they are going to save enough for a down payment.

Suburbs of Des Moines… traffic is nuts in 2037, but you can still find an appartment for 1.2 which considering a Bozeman 1 bed 1 bath is 3.2 it’s a pretty good deal.

 

[DouglasR]

Suburbs of Des Moines… traffic is nuts in 2037, but you can still find an appartment for 1.2 which considering a Bozeman 1 bed 1 bath is 3.2 it’s a pretty good deal.

Des Moines and Iowa city are both really nice towns.

 

[Sytes]

Since Jan 21 to Jan 22 our inflation had the highest jump in history (since 1913). Roughly 10%... amazing, in one year. This, imo, is why I believe this is a new norm and not anticipating a major correction.

Source:

Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2024

The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) is provided by the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistic and is used to measure inflation. The CPI is calculated and released monthly and powers this site's always-current Inflation Calculator, among other things. The government agency last updated...

www.usinflationcalculator.com

 

[VikingsGuy]

Is 2700 ft^2 modest? I grew up in a trailer house with 4 siblings.

Yup - not much discussed, but heavily inflated expectations play a big role in the narrative that "the average guy can't make ends meet anymore like the good old days".

 

[Gerald Martin]

Is 2700 ft^2 modest? I grew up in a trailer house with 4 siblings. I think that plays into all this as well. Although in Bozeman...not much haha

The last trailer house in Bozeman that I saw for sale cost about 75% of what it cost me to build my house….

 

[DouglasR]

I got my piece of Bozeman dirt back in June of 20. At the time I couldn’t hardly stomach paying what I did for 2 1/2 acres. Now there aren’t any lots that size for triple the price.

My biggest concern is where my kids are going to live and how they are going to save enough for a down payment.

Materials prices for a modest 2700 square foot home with attached 24x28 garage came in @ $100 per foot in 2020. The year I took off work and built my own home with help from my wife and kids seems like a good investment to me.

#securedthebag

Congratulations!

 

[Trap]

Anyone can look up the. CPI I didn’t cite it as it’s readily available, I cited my sources for housing.

Cite your sources, don’t respond to facts with “well it’s probably”.

If I’m wrong prove it.

Housing out pacing inflation.
View attachment 214497

Here you go pardner I didn’t really want to look up again. I chose 1967 the year I was born and have witnessed 2 housing bubbles (probably 3) since I was old enough to care-where home prices rose 10-30 percent per year. There has always been a correction or reversion to the mean and housing has appreciated at a little over 4 percent for that 54 year period. I have been employed in the financial/ investment world for 29 years I have access to a mind numbing amount of historical return statistics. You can cherry pick time frames and get a statistic to support any narrative. I didn’t do that just chose my actual birth year till today. I got on here to talk about hunting not financial stuff ha ha. Have a good weekend

 

[Trap]

Since Jan 21 to Jan 22 our inflation had the highest jump in history (since 1913). Roughly 10%... amazing, in one year. This, imo, is why I believe this is a new norm and not anticipating a major correction.
View attachment 214736
Source:

Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2024

The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) is provided by the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistic and is used to measure inflation. The CPI is calculated and released monthly and powers this site's always-current Inflation Calculator, among other things. The government agency last updated...

www.usinflationcalculator.com

Inflation is at a 40 year high. But we have had higher inflation, quite a bit higher in the 70s. It will correct (housing prices) first interest rate increase this week. Cost of oil goes into the prices of everything. The old saying is the solution to high oil prices is high oil prices. Eventually we will get demand destruction in the energy area where people will just figure out how to use less. Or as a country we will actually drill more of our own oil. Even Bozeman real estate prices will go down. We have seen this movie before (outrageous real estate price increases) it always has the same ending.

 

[Trap]

Anyone can look up the. CPI I didn’t cite it as it’s readily available, I cited my sources for housing.

Cite your sources, don’t respond to facts with “well it’s probably”.

If I’m wrong prove it.

Housing out pacing inflation.
View attachment 214497

Here is 100 years 3.1 vs 3. So I guess it probably is just slightly more than inflation . just using my Google fu as I refuse to spend any significant time researching so I can cite my sources on a hunting site. Everyone should agree it’s very difficult for young people to afford housing right now (at this moment). Prices will change.

 

[TheJason]

Soooo, 6.5 CM or PRC?

 

[SAJ-99]

Here is 100 years 3.1 vs 3. So I guess it probably is just slightly more than inflation . just using my Google fu as I refuse to spend any significant time researching so I can cite my sources on a hunting site. Everyone should agree it’s very difficult for young people to afford housing right now (at this moment). Prices will change.

The sales prices don’t really matter, Affordability does. Only way housing prices fall on a nationwide basis is inflation causes rate spike which leads to recession and equity market tanks another 25% from here. Housing markets are always the last place to feel the pain.

 

[Nick87]

The sales prices don’t really matter, Affordability does. Only way housing prices fall on a nationwide basis is inflation causes rate spike which leads to recession and equity market tanks another 25% from here. Housing markets are always the last place to feel the pain.

Probably a dumb question but couldn't inflation in itself cause a drop in real estate? I know housing is a necessity but I would think if/when food prices are so inflated buying a new/bigger house would be last as compared to traveling to work, groceries etc?

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Here is 100 years 3.1 vs 3. So I guess it probably is just slightly more than inflation . just using my Google fu as I refuse to spend any significant time researching so I can cite my sources on a hunting site. Everyone should agree it’s very difficult for young people to afford housing right now (at this moment). Prices will change.

100 years isn’t really applicable, you weren’t alive… I definitely wasn’t alive and that’s the tail of the curve, the acceleration has been more recent, which is the argument. Inflation v. Housing was closer now it’s not, income growth v. Inflation was closer now it’s not.


Time frame for a boomer v. a millennial, why, simply to show there are some “environmental” differences and folks in both just played the hand they were dealt.

 

[SAJ-99]

Probably a dumb question but couldn't inflation in itself cause a drop in real estate? I know housing is a necessity but I would think if/when food prices are so inflated buying a new/bigger house would be last as compared to traveling to work, groceries etc?

Yes and no. Only if Inflation causes a rise in borrow cost. Again, it’s affordability that matters, not price. Higher rates mean buyer with stable income either buys less house (lower sq ft) or has a larger down payment to keep mortgage payment the same.

In the more-than-you-wanted-to-know category, The housing component of inflation is owners equivalent rent, which tries to take into account all the variables like sq ft, high end furnishings, etc. It tends to lag housing prices, so when housing prices jump 8%, it might not flow through directly to CPI immediately.
See chart below for visual over time.

Also to note, direct comparisons of todays inflation to the 1970s are tough. We measure CPI differently today than we did in the 1970s. I saw and article that said if we measured it today the same way we did then it would be higher than then. I didn’t check the math but sounds possible.

 

[Nick87]

Makes some sense as I have no idea how people are paying what they are but I guess with interest rates so low its cheaper to just borrow more. Wish those rates would climb some I could put a substantial amount more down which would separate me from other buyers. I guess what I was getting at I regardless of interest rate a payment still has to be made, doesn't that affect affordability whether it's principal or its interest? I mean they still have to come up with it every month right?

 

[SAJ-99]

Makes some sense as I have no idea how people are paying what they are but I guess with interest rates so low its cheaper to just borrow more. Wish those rates would climb some I could put a substantial amount more down which would separate me from other buyers. I guess what I was getting at I regardless of interest rate a payment still has to be made, doesn't that affect affordability whether it's principal or its interest? I mean they still have to come up with it every month right?

Right. The payment has two pieces, principal and interest. If rates are low, the interest portion is less so the buyer buys more house, making the principal portion higher. Same payment, breakdown is different. The result is why housing prices jump.

 

[Nick87]

Right. The payment has two pieces, principal and interest. If rates are low, the interest portion is less so the buyer buys more house, making the principal portion higher. Same payment, breakdown is different. The result is why housing prices jump.

Yes I understand how the payment works I'm just saying at some point even if it was zero interest the payment will be too much.