ID nonres sheep/Moose/Goat apps?

IdahoNick said:
That's not really how it works statistically. The odds weren't 8%. They just seem that way, but a NR had way less than 8% chance of pulling that tag.

All the numbers are basically in one big hat. They start pulling. When 10% is met for NR, they are supposed to stop counting those. Except last year they never stopped and informed an extra dozen NRs they had a sheep tag....oops.

This is why our unit 11 tag almost always goes to a NR....so many NRs put in it often one gets picked before a resident.
Click to expand...
Residents are in luck this year - two tags in 11.
 
Sheep here this year.

Not 11.

My theory over the years is to apply for the hunts with better draw odds.

Sing it - Anticipation...
 
Which odds do you guys believe are more correct, hunting fool or gohunt? Gohunt has a unit around 2.5% hunting fool around 0.5-0.6% for almost all of them. Reading the comments at gohunt, it looks like they may have a better idea of the odds. They also seem likely to be more accurate since they vary by hunt codes. Since it's capped at a hunt code level and combined total level, hunting codes with fewer apps should have better odds(since a hunt code is done once a single nr tag is pulled from that pool)
I was planning on putting in, but think I'll hold off now. The kids drew a few tags in NM, including F/IM Barbary, so at least we'll be hunting sheep this season.
 
CMF said:
Which odds do you guys believe are more correct, hunting fool or gohunt? Gohunt has a unit around 2.5% hunting fool around 0.5-0.6% for almost all of them. Reading the comments at gohunt, it looks like they may have a better idea of the odds. They also seem likely to be more accurate since they vary by hunt codes. Since it's capped at a hunt code level and combined total level, hunting codes with fewer apps should have better odds(since a hunt code is done once a single nr tag is pulled from that pool)
I was planning on putting in, but think I'll hold off now. The kids drew a few tags in NM, including F/IM Barbary, so at least we'll be hunting sheep this season.
Click to expand...
NR Ram? If GoHunt is showing a 2.5% NR Ram unit in Idaho, you should ask for your money back for your insider subscription.
 
CMF said:
Which odds do you guys believe are more correct, hunting fool or gohunt? Gohunt has a unit around 2.5% hunting fool around 0.5-0.6% for almost all of them. Reading the comments at gohunt, it looks like they may have a better idea of the odds. They also seem likely to be more accurate since they vary by hunt codes. Since it's capped at a hunt code level and combined total level, hunting codes with fewer apps should have better odds(since a hunt code is done once a single nr tag is pulled from that pool)
I was planning on putting in, but think I'll hold off now. The kids drew a few tags in NM, including F/IM Barbary, so at least we'll be hunting sheep this season.
Click to expand...
GoHunt just regurgitates the draw offs from IDF&G, and there’s been plenty of discussion about how there’s not a good way to mathematically model the ID NR system.
 
I am in for Moose. Expensive for the application but… after 20 years applying for moose in Utah and 10 in Colorado…my ID odds first year are better. Good luck everybody!
 
CMF said:
Which odds do you guys believe are more correct, hunting fool or gohunt? Gohunt has a unit around 2.5% hunting fool around 0.5-0.6% for almost all of them.
Click to expand...
You are correct. I just reviewed all NR Idaho ram odds in GoHunt and Toprut, side by side. Gohunt is consistently showing 2-3x better NR ram odds than Toprut. Several units showing as high as 1.4%, 1.7%, 1.9%, 2.4%, 2.8% at GoHunt. But all NR ram hunt codes are 0.2-0.7% at Toprut.

The guy that heads GoHunt data & analytics only has a 2 year business degree from a community college (not joking). But his resume does say he focused on math/stats while obtaining that associates degree.

The Toprut guy also lacks a formal statistics education, but I'm inclined to believe that Toprut has more of the Idaho NR nuances modeled out correctly. I believe GoHunt is only handling this mildly better than the 3rd grade statistician putting together the charts at Idaho F&G showing 8%+ draw odds for many units.

Another possibility is that Idaho F&G (learning from AZ GFD) has a promotional contract with GoHunt. GoHunt NR ram draw odds of up to 2.8% are going to lead to many more $330 transactions than truth would dictate.

I have not reviewed GoHunt odds for NR moose and NR mt goat, but my guess is that you should divide all of those by 2-3 also.
 
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