BigHornRam
Well-known member
So have you installed solar yet?
Housing Appreciation and Inflation: Future Outlook?
- Thread starter Sytes
- Start date
SAJ-99
Well-known member
No. We have discussed. Hydro Electricity prices here low enough to make my break even too long. I continue to consider it, but I didn't see the sun for all but about 8 days this winter (El Nino strikes again). However, I did put in 4 more inches of insulation.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
When you said I can make the grid more robust by putting solar on my roof, I decided to get a quote. This is what I found out.
6% return on my investment.
No electric bill from Northwest energy with net metering.
Get to starve the beast out of $4,300.
Made in America Silfab panels.
What do you think?
SAJ-99
Well-known member
I thought your bill was pretty low but that seems pretty attractive. If I remember correctly, you probably still have to pay Northwest for the privilege of having an account. It was like $30 per month when I was there. You add the risk of the sun not shining and reduce the risk from prolonged power outage for some disaster reason.
lifesupport4u
Well-known member
- Joined
- Aug 14, 2016
- Messages
- 388
Don’t get sucked in. Don’t get sucked in. Don’t…. get… sucked back in.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
$4 a month meter rent fee is all. I still would have a natural gas bill from Northwest for furnace and water heater. $14,400 still sounds steep for a 4.5kw grid tied solar package installed. The company, Freedom Energy, is only 10 days out to install, and eager to get started. Maybe they can sharpen their pencil, if they want the job?
The only way this makes sense is if it raises the value of my house when I go to sell it next spring. Zero dollar electric bill could be a great selling feature. Could even spark a bidding war amongst half a dozen California refugees!
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Silfab is now manufacturing in your gloomy neck of the woods, @SAJ-99 . Can't believe you won't crack open your wallet and install some of these cutting edge panels.
silfabsolar.com
Silfab Solar to Execute First Phase of USA Cell Manufacturing
Silfab Solar Inc. to open first phase of USA Cell manufacturing facility, including a 2nd investment from ARC Financial
silfabsolar.com
BigHornRam
Well-known member
I could always DIY the install and hire an electrician to do the grid tie.
$2,500 for 11 panels plus shipping.
$2,500 for 11 panels plus shipping.
Silfab Solar Prime Series SIL-410-HCPLUS 410Watt 132 1/2 Cells BoB Monocrystalline 35mm Black Frame Solar Panel
Shop Silfab Solar Prime Series SIL-410-HCPLUS 410Watt 132 1/2 Cells BoB Monocrystalline 35mm Black Frame Solar Panel online or call us, Solarflexion, at 800-942-2424 for your solar needs.
www.solarflexion.com
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Panels seem to be on par with the competition, although maybe a little more (5%) more expensive. I don't mind paying the extra for American made. The installation cost is the problem I am having. I ran the numbers through Avista calculator and it still shows I don't break even. It doesn't have anything to do with the panels or efficiency. It is all in the installation cost. If I assume the inflation on electricity is closer to 3% rather than the 2%, then the numbers put me in the black. If you could DIY any part of it, the numbers change dramatically. This goes back to my belief that we have a labor problem in this country and it will make inflation very sticky, but a topic for another thread.
If you installed a $14,000 system with a positive/neutral breakeven, the value of your house should increase by $14,000. Unfortunately, there is no way to know what the value of the home was before you start so it all gets mixed together in the purchase price.
Revisiting thoughts on this topic.
"It's possible we'll see a 50% [correction] in some spots, but I would say somewhere around a 30% correction in real estate," Vermeulen said of real estate investments.
Property prices could drop by around 30% across the entire residential and commercial property market, he added.
Those losses could take seven to 10 years to recover from, he said, due to the long nature of real estate cycles.
****
Still, most real estate veterans don't expect the residential housing market to crash. The US housing market is so short on inventory it could take at least three or four years for supply and demand to balance out, the National Association of Realtors previously said, and low supply will keep a floor underneath home prices for the foreseeable future.
Real-estate crash: Correction looms for US property market, strategist says
Residential and commercial property prices could fall as much as 30% over the next few years, one strategist said.
www.businessinsider.com
"It's possible we'll see a 50% [correction] in some spots, but I would say somewhere around a 30% correction in real estate," Vermeulen said of real estate investments.
Property prices could drop by around 30% across the entire residential and commercial property market, he added.
Those losses could take seven to 10 years to recover from, he said, due to the long nature of real estate cycles.
****
Still, most real estate veterans don't expect the residential housing market to crash. The US housing market is so short on inventory it could take at least three or four years for supply and demand to balance out, the National Association of Realtors previously said, and low supply will keep a floor underneath home prices for the foreseeable future.
Nick87
Well-known member
You can read whatever version of that you like all day. If I had a dollar for every article on a strategist bullshit opinion I'd never have to worry about what the market will do ever again.Revisiting thoughts on this topic.
Real-estate crash: Correction looms for US property market, strategist says
Residential and commercial property prices could fall as much as 30% over the next few years, one strategist said.www.businessinsider.com
"It's possible we'll see a 50% [correction] in some spots, but I would say somewhere around a 30% correction in real estate," Vermeulen said of real estate investments.
Property prices could drop by around 30% across the entire residential and commercial property market, he added.
Those losses could take seven to 10 years to recover from, he said, due to the long nature of real estate cycles.
****
Still, most real estate veterans don't expect the residential housing market to crash. The US housing market is so short on inventory it could take at least three or four years for supply and demand to balance out, the National Association of Realtors previously said, and low supply will keep a floor underneath home prices for the foreseeable future.
I quoted both sides of the spectrum.
One of the average American highest $ staked, sole investments. Portfolios are based on various sectors to offset if/when one sector drops, etc.
This is not a variety of ETFs nor shares within one of many companies - this is a mass sum of $ in a single investment. That said, people will read whatever version they like all day though information is king.
One of the average American highest $ staked, sole investments. Portfolios are based on various sectors to offset if/when one sector drops, etc.
This is not a variety of ETFs nor shares within one of many companies - this is a mass sum of $ in a single investment. That said, people will read whatever version they like all day though information is king.
SilentBirdHunter
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 5, 2024
- Messages
- 252
The inventory of single family homes is about half of prepandemic levels and unlikely to increase substantially until construction costs and interest rates change. Low supply = high prices. As an example, when mortgage rates went from 3 to 8 percent, the price of houses remained high.Revisiting thoughts on this topic.
Real-estate crash: Correction looms for US property market, strategist says
Residential and commercial property prices could fall as much as 30% over the next few years, one strategist said.www.businessinsider.com
"It's possible we'll see a 50% [correction] in some spots, but I would say somewhere around a 30% correction in real estate," Vermeulen said of real estate investments.
Property prices could drop by around 30% across the entire residential and commercial property market, he added.
Those losses could take seven to 10 years to recover from, he said, due to the long nature of real estate cycles.
****
Still, most real estate veterans don't expect the residential housing market to crash. The US housing market is so short on inventory it could take at least three or four years for supply and demand to balance out, the National Association of Realtors previously said, and low supply will keep a floor underneath home prices for the foreseeable future.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Interesting article on current and future lumber prices.
fortune.com
Lumber prices are plunging. Blame the record drop in U.S. housing affordability and a post-pandemic double bubble ‘hangover’
“It’s an ugly scenario” for the lumber market, Sitka Forest Products' Ashley Boeckholt told Fortune. “We’re kind of having a hangover from a great three years.”
SAJ-99
Well-known member
"We start to see a trickle-effect… People are starting to get laid off as unemployment rises. People have burned through their savings and inflation is crazy higher," he said. "Eventually, people aren't going to be able to pay their mortgages."
I knew it was just a matter of time before we get "the sky is falling!" when unemployment hit 4%.
Housing continues to be "weird"?. Just read Basmajian's (https://epbresearch.substack.com/p/...e&r=521y8&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email) research note on housing. The money charts are below. Builders are starting to get back to normal levels on finished homes and are way above normal on "new" homes (which includes built, in-process, and ordered). At the same time, existing homes are still near lows in terms of inventory. This explains why home builders stocks (ITB, XHB) have turned over the last few weeks. We need to keep an eye on unemployment in construction sector. I'm not sure any of this supports the lumber price article, because new homes are being built at a pretty good clip. Just a lot of conflicting data.
I knew it was just a matter of time before we get "the sky is falling!" when unemployment hit 4%.
Housing continues to be "weird"?. Just read Basmajian's (https://epbresearch.substack.com/p/...e&r=521y8&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email) research note on housing. The money charts are below. Builders are starting to get back to normal levels on finished homes and are way above normal on "new" homes (which includes built, in-process, and ordered). At the same time, existing homes are still near lows in terms of inventory. This explains why home builders stocks (ITB, XHB) have turned over the last few weeks. We need to keep an eye on unemployment in construction sector. I'm not sure any of this supports the lumber price article, because new homes are being built at a pretty good clip. Just a lot of conflicting data.
ismith
Well-known member
BigHornRam
Well-known member
SilentBirdHunter
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 5, 2024
- Messages
- 252
The supply of single family homes is low. New home construcion would have to triple to close the 7.2 million home gap in 4 to 5 years.
www.realtor.com
US Housing Supply Gap Grows in 2023; Growth Outpaces Permits in Fast-Growing Sunbelt Metros
US housing markets continue to struggle with a growing shortage of new homes, the result of more than a decade of under-building relative to population growth. In 2023, the U.S. saw 1.67 million household formations, resulting in 17.2 million household formations between 2012 and 2023. In this...
ismith
Well-known member
Add the pending Fed rate drop to the equation, could get interesting.The supply of single family homes is low. New home construcion would have to triple to close the 7.2 million home gap in 4 to 5 years.
US Housing Supply Gap Grows in 2023; Growth Outpaces Permits in Fast-Growing Sunbelt Metros
US housing markets continue to struggle with a growing shortage of new homes, the result of more than a decade of under-building relative to population growth. In 2023, the U.S. saw 1.67 million household formations, resulting in 17.2 million household formations between 2012 and 2023. In this...
Mountain Man
Well-known member
I agree. When the rates drop, a lot of people are going to jump off the sidelines and prices will rise.
