Do Nonresidents have a reasonable chance of drawing Bison, Moose, Sheep, or Goat tags

[Elkmagnet]

Not accurate. You can count up how many bull moose tags were awarded to NR. Or, if want a cow moose tag, count up how many cow moose tags were awarded to NR. Then look up how many NR applicants there were for bull. Or, cow. Now, divide species NR tags by species NR applicants. Those are your odds and in no year is that 30% much less 100%. GMU-level past results are simply no more relevant than using last month's lottery numbers for your ticket this week.

You can use some strategy on the GMU to select as your one and only choice. For example, a significant portion of NR sheep applicants chase a single sheep GMU. Apply for any other sheep GMU and your odds are higher than what would anticipate by dividing NR sheep tags awarded divided by all NR sheep applicants.

You can look directly at NR odds from Idaho fish and game I just counted 10 moose units with NR draw odds above 20%.
A few of these units have better odds for NR than R.
Admittedly the 100% NR odds in a unit was an anomaly (the only tag in the unit was drawn by NR)
If I recall Idaho only gave 3 or 4 cow elk tags in the whole state this year.

 

[Trial153]

In 2020 there was roughly 840 NR applications for ID moose, 40 tags awarded….. so your looking at about .0478, so about one half of one percent.

 

[Carnage2011]

If you aren’t chasing the best units your odds go up substantially. There are moose units in Idaho that non residents have drawn tags in almost every year for the last 5 years with better than 20% odds…

 

[BenInMT]

In 2020 there was roughly 840 NR applications for ID moose, 40 tags awarded….. so your looking at about .0478, so about one half of one percent.

Wouldn’t that be more like 5% odds?

I would really like to see a breakdown of the ages of applicants for these tags. It’s probably mostly boomers hanging on to a dream. They’ll be dead or too old to hunt soon, so maybe the odds go up in a decade?

 

[Elkmagnet]

In 2020 there was roughly 840 NR applications for ID moose, 40 tags awarded….. so your looking at about .0478, so about one half of one percent.

If you think about it nobody has it right.
They are drawing from the same pool but for individual units.
So if you put in for 10 tags in unit A, along with 100 other application you have a 10% chance. That is before the non resident quota has been met. After the quota has been met you now have 0% odds.
You cannot say that you have the same 5% odds regardless of the unit on the app.
Right? Wrong?

 

[Trial153]

If you think about it nobody has it right.
They are drawing from the same pool but for individual units.
So if you put in for 10 tags in unit A, along with 100 other application you have a 10% chance. That is before the non resident quota has been met. After the quota has been met you now have 0% odds.
You cannot say that you have the same 5% odds regardless of the unit on the app.
Right? Wrong?

Yes, My understanding is there is no separate drawing for each GMU.

All applications both R and NR go into one pool. Applications are awarded as drawn based on first choices. If the NR quota for that unit is full already then they look at your second pick, and so on. Keep in mind that if the total cap is full your dead in the water and drawing dead. There is no separate drawing for each unit.

 

[Elkmagnet]

My understanding was that Idaho drew unit by unit until the NR quota was met it then kicked out NR and continued with the draw.
Now I am curious with the way that IDF&G post non resident draw odds.

 

[dgc1963]

I know we all wish we could hunt these animals more often and a lot of the draw systems seem a bit goofed up but im not sure how else it could be to keep things fair or more fair . And grant it I only research the units and animals I apply for in the states I apply for
The numbers of animals is a resource we all share even with a non hunting person and it is very limited ,cant imagine what is was like when their was a million plus big horns all across the country

 

[MTGomer]

In 2020 there was roughly 840 NR applications for ID moose, 40 tags awarded….. so your looking at about .0478, so about one half of one percent.

You need to move your decimal over two places to the right to convert to percent. 4.78%.

Just to double check that logically…. 84 out of 840 would be 10%. 40 is roughly half of 84. Half of 84 would be half of 10% which would be 5%.

Either way, not the best odds but there is definitely worse odds it there.

 

[Trial153]

You need to move your decimal over two places to the right to convert to percent. 4.78%.

Just to double check that logically…. 84 out of 840 would be 10%. 40 is roughly half of 84. Half of 84 would be half of 10% which would be 5%.

Either way, not the best odds but there is definitely worse odds it there.

Agree, my math was fuzzy last night.

I also think we aren’t factoring into the equation that units cap as well for NR? So regardless of meeting the total cap if you first choice unit met it’s NR cap your done in as well.

So to get those 4.% total odds you application has to be live for the entire draw before your unit and the NR cap hits. Most likely I been drawing dead a time or two in Idaho after flushing that 200

 

[Elkmagnet]

The NR per unit cap does not apply to M,S,G. Due to the low tag numbers.
NR would be ineligible for any hunt with less than 10 tags (basically all M,S,G) so units with less than 10 tags will be exempt to the cap.

 

[Bowhuntrben]

The NR per unit cap does not apply to M,S,G. Due to the low tag numbers.
NR would be ineligible for any hunt with less than 10 tags (basically all M,S,G)

NR are still eligible for units with less than 10 tags. They can get up to 1 tag in those units

 

[Elkmagnet]

Either way, not the best odds but there is definitely worse odds it there.

Better than resident deer, antelope and elk odds in the unit I live in. Our September rifle elk hunt has 809 applications for 5 tags .6% odds.

 

[Elkmagnet]

NR are still eligible for units with less than 10 tags. They can get up to 1 tag in those units

Correct after reading again I think he meant that if the unit he had applied in had drawn a tag already you would be at 0% odds. That would be true.

 

[Trial153]

NR are still eligible for units with less than 10 tags. They can get up to 1 tag in those units

Regardless, that’s still a cap at one tag in units with 10 or less total tags. You can still be capped out before the total NR cap is met.

 

[Elkmagnet]

Regardless, that’s still a cap at one tag in units with 10 or less total tags. You can still be capped out before the total NR cap is met.

I've never had to look at the system from a non resident perspective so I hadn't given it the depth of thought.
Its not as good as I thought but not bad as far as moose go. Sheep is, well, sheep.

 

[Trial153]

I've never had to look at the system from a non resident perspective so I hadn't given it the depth of thought.
Its not as good as I thought but not bad as far as moose go. Sheep is, well, sheep.

Run that 200$ NR fee though the mill 95x times and your looking at a 19k tag.
Thats three good fly in NF hunts, or a hunt and half in BC or Alberta, or two DIY Alaska trips or your are like 5K short for a guided AK or Yukon hunt.

 

[LopeHunter]

You can look directly at NR odds from Idaho fish and game I just counted 10 moose units with NR draw odds above 20%.
A few of these units have better odds for NR than R.
Admittedly the 100% NR odds in a unit was an anomaly (the only tag in the unit was drawn by NR)
If I recall Idaho only gave 3 or 4 cow elk tags in the whole state this year.

What were the odds in that same bull moose GMU the prior two years for those really good odds units you discovered? Please share with us how those GMUs are getting NR tags year after year after year.

Ignore the NR species cap at your own peril. I can explain it different but I can't make you understand. That is up to you. I could take you to Vegas and as the roulette wheel has the ball fall into the 32 slot tell you with confidence that 32 had 100% odds that spin and you can rely on that as go to bet your life savings on the next spin. You might question my confidence and try to explain the nuances but I can tell you 32 had 100% odds. Now, if you ask what about the two prior spins then I lose my confidence. No bull moose GMUs in Idaho have guaranteed NR tags. None. The reason the odds look so good is one of the first applications drawn had that GMU and was a NR application. He got a "32" and that GMU likely now exceeds 10% of tags to NRs so any other NR is drawing dead. If enough NRs drew bull moose tags then will not matter if that GMU had not hit the 10% cap as the species is now out of tags for NRs so even if you are the only NR applicant for that GMU you will not get a tag even if no R applied for that GMU.

 

[Elkmagnet]

What were the odds in that same bull moose GMU the prior two years for those really good odds units you discovered? Please share with us how those GMUs are getting NR tags year after year after year.

Ignore the NR species cap at your own peril. I can explain it different but I can't make you understand. That is up to you. I could take you to Vegas and as the roulette wheel has the ball fall into the 32 slot tell you with confidence that 32 had 100% odds that spin and you can rely on that as go to bet your life savings on the next spin. You might question my confidence and try to explain the nuances but I can tell you 32 had 100% odds. Now, if you ask what about the two prior spins then I lose my confidence. No bull moose GMUs in Idaho have guaranteed NR tags. None. The reason the odds look so good is one of the first applications drawn had that GMU and was a NR application. He got a "32" and that GMU likely now exceeds 10% of tags to NRs so any other NR is drawing dead. If enough NRs drew bull moose tags then will not matter if that GMU had not hit the 10% cap as the species is now out of tags for NRs so even if you are the only NR applicant for that GMU you will not get a tag even if no R applied for that GMU.

Pretty sure we cleared that all up 5 or 10 post ago but feel free to be an @$$ about it anyway I can take it.
I honestly can't believe you guys are complaining about even 5% non resident drawing odds for bull moose in a state that gives out less than 600 total permits.
We both know that if you pick the right units you will undoubtedly have better than 5% odds.
Can you show me what state a non resident hunter can get a better chance?

 

[nick_3401]

saving the money and just going north and guided hunt can be just as cheap and you can do it right away. if you applying everywhere is a lot money.