COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

[LWC55]

Median age of Italy is like 48yrs, which is 10yrs older than US. It might be the oldest population in the World (you will have to check me on that). You are still correct that the oldest are most vulnerable, but we knew that. You solution would be fine except those in the higher age brackets are not the only ones vulnerable. So for the 40yr old that gets it and dies do we just call it collateral damage? In the end, solutions for a democracy are different than solutions under an autocracy.

I'm not saying it is right, but that is what we have been doing for the flu for hundreds of years. 20,000 to 80,000 in the US die annually from the flu. I have seen a handful of schools shut down for less than a week to do extra cleaning because of a bad flu outbreak. But that is as severe as I've seen.
I can't ever remember one major event that was shut down for the flu. Heck Michael Jordan had probably his most famous game in the "flu game" in game 5 of the '97 finals. Nobody blinked an eye and he was praised for getting out there and battling with the flu. What about all those people that die every year?

 

[Trial153]

Small government types are quick to jump off their narratives about self sufficiency and and personal responsibility, when it suits them. For example lamenting about school closings and how the children will now suffer, all the while insinuating while it was unnecessary.
luckily there are some that are some people looking at this as an opportunity to take greater charge in their children’s education. we don’t often have events that can be life defining, and maybe making the most of it and capitalizing on the upside is great opportunity.

here is good information

Home-Schooling Tweens and Teens During Coronavirus Closings (Published 2020)

Advice from experts and home-schoolers on what do with your children if their schools are closed.

www.nytimes.com

 

[rmauch20]

Small government types are quick to jump off their narratives about self sufficiency and and personal responsibility, when it suits them. For example lamenting about school closings and how the children will now suffer, all the while insinuating while it was unnecessary.
luckily there are some that are some people looking at this as an opportunity to take greater charge in their children’s education. we don’t often have events that can be life defining, and maybe making the most of it and capitalizing on the upside is great opportunity.

here is good information

Home-Schooling Tweens and Teens During Coronavirus Closings (Published 2020)

Advice from experts and home-schoolers on what do with your children if their schools are closed.

www.nytimes.com

Since this thread is turned back to a discussion. I will ask how this is going to work if both parents work?

 

[huronmtns]

I repeatedly see people making the comparison between average ages and CFR between Italy, China, US, and trying to make the argument that it can’t really be that bad because of how it spread in X country. It’s more complicated than that. First, you are failing to take into account population demographics. The average age of the population is much higher in Italy, so yes you would expect there to be more mortalities there and the average age of mortalities to be higher. You can not simply extrapolate that to all populations where the demographics are different. There are different health factors, lifestyle differences, genetic differences that can manifest in differential mortality in populations.

When looking at disease curves, you also have to consider cultural differences. In many other countries, including Italy, it is extremely common to have three or even four generations living together in close quarters under one roof. That is going to result in a much different transmission pattern than in places where that is not a common living situation. Conversely, having a population of people who are resistant to social distancing practices will also alter the transmission curve, and not in a good way. It is not as simple as comparing X country to Y country and saying “See? They are different (or the same).”

As for why this virus is different than past viruses that have been in the news... it takes a special combination of a susceptible naive population, infectivity and transmissibility. Those depend on the specific little bits of genetic material unique to each virus. There is some evidence that a virus very similar to the H1N1 virus had circulated decades earlier, so there was some level of immunity present in the segments of the population that were alive and exposed to that earlier event. The others (SARS for example) just didn’t transmit super efficiently through the population, which made it relatively easy to stop. This one happens to have the right combination of characteristics to make it bad...highly transmissible, has not previously circulated in humans so the human “herd” in general has no immunity, and it happens to cause relatively significant respiratory disease in a higher than usual proportion of the population. So why is this virus different from those others? Because it has different mutations that give it different characteristics than those other viruses had. This is normal...more dramatic but no different than having different flu strains every year. Some are worse than others...depends on the mutations each virus possesses and whether the population has previous exposure or not.

Yes, there are many global variations that will have an impact on data. People on this thread shouldn't argue about the differences in the area data numbers. Data will not line up and will continually evolve as it is collected due to interaction/reaction differences geographically.

 

[SAJ-99]

I'm not saying it is right, but that is what we have been doing for the flu for hundreds of years. 20,000 to 80,000 in the US die annually from the flu. I have seen a handful of schools shut down for less than a week to do extra cleaning because of a bad flu outbreak. But that is as severe as I've seen.
I can't ever remember one major event that was shut down for the flu. Heck Michael Jordan had probably his most famous game in the "flu game" in game 5 of the '97 finals. Nobody blinked an eye and he was praised for getting out there and battling with the flu. What about all those people that die every year?

Lets summarize. The flu has a vaccine that is available to anyone who wants it for free, or $10 at worst. Tens of millions of people in the US get the flu. A small % die, like 0.1%. Many people get the flu even though they had a vaccine, but are helped in getting through it quicker because of the vaccine. Covid-19 is a similar virus to the flu, has no vaccine, is more than twice as contagious (I don't think that is the right word, but whatever) as the flu, and 10x to 20x more deadly. I agree that our social approach to the flu is different. We do nothing to stop the spread except tell people to practice good prevention/hygene and get the vaccine. We, as human beings on the same planet, have said that losses from the flu are just something we have to accept.

 

[Trial153]

Since this thread is turned back to a discussion. I will ask how this is going to work if both parents work?

Dude I am not discussing anything with you. You continue to prove you are so far off base that discussion is fruitless. Some juice isn’t worth the squeeze

 

[Trial153]

We need to understand that like in most things that have a degree of randomness that’s we are almost always regressing toward the Mean.

This is concept that we all should be familiar with in this discussion.

Regression toward the mean - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Hunting Wife]

We get it, a couple of you think it’s all much ado about nothing and would rather extoll uneducated opinions and argue. Not the purpose of this thread. Can you please stop before you ruin yet another one?

 

[Schism]

BACK TO INFORMATION:

The Governor of ND had a press conference this afternoon. 223 tests have been administered in ND with samples coming from 21 of 53 counties. Out of the 223 tests, 73 were performed today. We now have 3 positives within the state, up from 1. Both people testing positive have reported to recently have traveled internationally, one confirmed to have been to Germany. So far we are unable to determine if any local spread has occurred.

He reiterated the importance of social distancing to help slow the spread. No increased closures or restrictions at this time.

 

[rmauch20]

Dude I am not discussing anything with you. You continue to prove you are so far off base that discussion is fruitless. Some juice isn’t worth the squeeze

You the best

 

[SAJ-99]

I am hearing that apparently we have run out of tests in MT and getting works that other states are seeing the same problem with test availability. This is getting frustrating. In the press conference yesterday Dr Fauci said they can run thousands of tests now. It looks like he was a little off.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Two powerful charts:

 

[Jasher]

Is the average age of death in Italy still around 82?

The average age of death in Indiana right now is 63

 

[JLS]

MSN

 

[Gr8bawana]

I am hearing that apparently we have run out of tests in MT and getting works that other states are seeing the same problem with test availability. This is getting frustrating. In the press conference yesterday Dr Fauci said they can run thousands of tests now. It looks like he was a little off.

Almost everyday for the last 2 weeks in their press confrence the white house has said "tomorrow or the next day millions of tests will be available." Where are all those millions of tests they keep promising?

 

[SAJ-99]

Side note, or maybe not. It looks like US media is getting booted out of China.
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1757162.shtml

 

[onpoint]

Never thought I'd set internet feet back here ever again.
I will once, as I do and always have believed that social media shoulda' always been called social responsibility media.
My wife and I just submitted our MT antelope tags in hope of using 'em this fall.
I've been on the phone with old friends, set up plans to get supplies to some at risk people in my life if need be, and have been making things current with folks.

And will send a letter to some oblivious politicians (dems and gop's, sytes....) telling them to keep my $1000 and immediately put it towards - not the economy - but medical supplies, PPE's, hospitals, ventilators, tests, you get the picture. Order industries to quit making recreational drones and instead produce things to face this deal. And give $$ stimulus to the citizens who actually need it - not me. And telling the politicians to enact some RULES - not recommendations. I listen to the subject experts. What a $*)Q!#@$ concept.
The reasons - I really don't think a lot of folks get the picture. Not just politicians - all of us.

Hyperbole?
I'll let the respected faux scholars on here (Harley) make the call.
Bet he calls bullshit on me. If so, I will rejoice in his eventual "correctness", cuz then I'll be hunting lopes this October on Montana prairie.
If he agrees with me.........

Hope you and your's remain well - reality will decide.

 

[Gerald Martin]

Right now being a home-school family with a full time stay at home Mom and working as a self-employed contractor doesn’t seem as counter cultural as it did last month.

So far, our day to day hasn’t changed a bit. I do feel badly for all the people who are going to be struggling financially because of having to stay home from work.

Service and food industry workers are going to be hit hard and are probably in the worst position to ride this out.

 

[Hookedonelk]

Has anybody heard about if you get it and recover can you get it again? If you do is it less severe? Or is it a get it once and your are immune?

 

[Elkmagnet]

MSN

Thanks for the link.
It looks like the u.s. death toll went over 100 today if anyone cares.....yes I mean you.