COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

[ImBillT]

Your point is valid, but we won’t know until all this is over. As Hunting Wife pointed out, it isn’t normal. I don’t think we should try to talk ourselves into this being normal.

I’m more than open to the idea that this is really bad, and definitely think we should take it seriously. I wanted travel shut down before a case got here. Ten days after it got here, when travel from China got shut down, a lot of the media was calling it xenophobic and racist. I thought it was just common sense.

I can’t seem to find deaths in Italy by month in other years to get a comparison. In comparison to the daily average, it‘s quite high, but again, I suspect that the daily numbers during the winter of a bad year are well in excess of 175...perhaps approaching 475. If that’s the case, this may not be as crazy as it’s being made out to be. I’m also having trouble finding total deaths in Italy instead of just covid-19 deaths. Point being, did we get 475 covid-19 deaths in addition to 175 other deaths, or is somewhat usual to mostly loose seniors to lower respiratory infections and although they had 475 deaths from covid-19, they only had 500 total, and thus covid-19 did not necessarily result in 475 deaths than would not usually have occurred. I just can’t find that info. Maybe it’s because this is obvious to medical professionals.

HuntingWife says they’re clearing out space usually used for very serious injuries to make room for covid-19 cases. While I hope that we don’t have that many covid-19 cases, I also hope that hospitals aren’t reducing attention to hurting people that are actually there in order to make room to treat patients they do not yet have, and may not get.

 

[VikingsGuy]

broken link

 

[Hunting Wife]

I’m more than open to the idea that this is really bad, and definitely think we should take it seriously. I wanted travel shut down before a case got here. Ten days after it got here, when travel from China got shut down, a lot of the media was calling it xenophobic and racist. I thought it was just common sense.

I can’t seem to find deaths in Italy by month in other years to get a comparison. In comparison to the daily average, it‘s quite high, but again, I suspect that the daily numbers during the winter of a bad year are well in excess of 175...perhaps approaching 475. If that’s the case, this may not be as crazy as it’s being made out to be. I’m also having trouble finding total deaths in Italy instead of just covid-19 deaths. Point being, did we get 475 covid-19 deaths in addition to 175 other deaths, or is somewhat usual to mostly loose seniors to lower respiratory infections and although they had 475 deaths from covid-19, they only had 500 total, and thus covid-19 did not necessarily result in 475 deaths than would not usually have occurred. I just can’t find that info. Maybe it’s because this is obvious to medical professionals.

HuntingWife says they’re clearing out space usually used for very serious injuries to make room for covid-19 cases. While I hope that we don’t have that many covid-19 cases, I also hope that hospitals aren’t reducing attention to hurting people that are actually there in order to make room to treat patients they do not yet have, and may not get.

This appendix is from a research paper looking at seasonal mortality in Europe that was published a few years ago.

https://www.cmaj.ca/content/cmaj/suppl/2009/09/22/cmaj.090694.DC2/appendix1_mediterranean.pdf

If 1700-ish deaths is average for the month in Italy due to ALL causes, 475 in a day (even if that was due to all causes combined) is very bad. And this is due to one virus.

Full article linked here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2761439/#!po=2.17391

The care of other patients is most certainly being and will continue to be impacted. Go try to schedule any kind of elective surgery right now. If you are in a Covid-19 area, and you aren’t in imminent danger of dying, you will not be admitted. And elective surgeries include things like cancer surgeries, kidney stones, gall bladders. Most surgeries fall into this category.

I don’t know how familiar people are with ICUs, but I get the feeling they think every hospital is equipped with 100 rooms or something. If your local hospital has an ICU, it likely has 10, maybe 20 critical care beds. And those need to serve all the critical patients, not just those with CV.

 

[ImBillT]

This appendix is from a research paper looking at seasonal mortality in Europe that was published a few years ago.

https://www.cmaj.ca/content/cmaj/suppl/2009/09/22/cmaj.090694.DC2/appendix1_mediterranean.pdf

If 1700-ish deaths is average for the month in Italy due to ALL causes, 475 in a day (even if that was due to all causes combined) is very bad. And this is due to one virus.

Full article linked here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2761439/#!po=2.17391

The care of other patients is most certainly being and will continue to be impacted. Go try to schedule any kind of elective surgery right now. If you are in a Covid-19 area, and you aren’t in imminent danger of dying, you will not be admitted. And elective surgeries include things like cancer surgeries, kidney stones, gall bladders. Most surgeries fall into this category.

I don’t know how familiar people are with ICUs, but I get the feeling they think every hospital is equipped with 100 rooms or something. If your local hospital has an ICU, it likely has 10, maybe 20 critical care beds. And those need to serve all the critical patients, not just those with CV.

Those are the kinds of numbers I was looking for, and it doesn’t look good.

I’d be surprised if we don’t have 150+ ICU beds here, but our hospitals probably service 400k-500k.

 

[BigHornRam]

Hopefully this will help with non infected patient care in hotspots like New York.

Trump deploying hospital ships to coronavirus hot zones

Defense Secretary Mark Esper said deploying the hospital ships could "take the pressure off of civilian hospitals when it comes to trauma cases to open up civilian hospital rooms for infectious diseases."

www.politico.com

 

[bushman13]

Understood, but that curve hasn't played itself out yet. In a normal year in the US we lose up to 60k people to the flu. The Washington case shows it is really dangerous for the already sick and easy to spread in that environment. Will that same condition exist outside of nursing homes, allowing that same transmission and death rate? Brass tacks is we are under 100 deaths in the US currently.


This is what Ron Paul was warning about. At what point is the response more dangerous than the condition?

Coronavirus: San Jose orders gun store to close in one of first enforcement against businesses open under shelter order

Willow Glen gun shop stayed open, then ordered closed, with modest fanfare; police say they focused on warnings and education for suspected violations of stay-at-home order.

www.mercurynews.com

But during a “normal” year, we don’t see exponential growth in disease curves. We don’t see 26 patients die at a nursing home in Washington in a matter of a few days. You don’t see developed countries triaging which patients get ventilators because there aren’t enough for everyone.

COVID-19: Italy doctors 'forced to choose which patients get ICU care'

A nurse in Lombardy tells Euronews that medical staff are being forced to decide who gets crucial treatment and who does not.

www.euronews.com

There have been multiple flu strains circulating since late summer/fall and it was business as usual. Then Covid-19 started spreading all over, and suddenly critical care units are overrun with patients. There is nothing “normal” about this. And when the healthcare professionals in the US say that we are heading toward the same train wreck that Italy is in, I’m inclined to believe them.
My mom is an RN at a regional hospital in the Pacific NW. Normally her floor is dedicated to head/spinal injuries. They have moved those patients out to make more room for COVID-19 patients. That’s something that has never happened, even in “abnormal” flu years. She’s been a nurse for 35 years and she’s never seen anything remotely like this. I’m not excited about the prospect of my 60-something mom being at ground zero of this.

If you still think this all just seems like business as usual, you aren’t grasping the situation.

 

[ImBillT]

This appendix is from a research paper looking at seasonal mortality in Europe that was published a few years ago.

https://www.cmaj.ca/content/cmaj/suppl/2009/09/22/cmaj.090694.DC2/appendix1_mediterranean.pdf

If 1700-ish deaths is average for the month in Italy due to ALL causes, 475 in a day (even if that was due to all causes combined) is very bad. And this is due to one virus.

Full article linked here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2761439/#!po=2.17391

The care of other patients is most certainly being and will continue to be impacted. Go try to schedule any kind of elective surgery right now. If you are in a Covid-19 area, and you aren’t in imminent danger of dying, you will not be admitted. And elective surgeries include things like cancer surgeries, kidney stones, gall bladders. Most surgeries fall into this category.

I don’t know how familiar people are with ICUs, but I get the feeling they think every hospital is equipped with 100 rooms or something. If your local hospital has an ICU, it likely has 10, maybe 20 critical care beds. And those need to serve all the critical patients, not just those with CV.

Actually...1700/month can’t be their all cause mortality. They loose close to 60k/year. That’s 5250/month. Something doesn’t add up.

 

[BigHornRam]

Montana Coronavirus And COVID-19 News

05/24/21How Montana's New Laws Limit Public Health PowersMontana’s Republican majority this legislative session took aim at public health officials’…

www.mtpr.org

News this morning said 12 confirmed cases with 700 tests reporting. Cases are in Yellowstone (Billings), Gallatin (Bozeman), and Missoula Counties. The 3 biggest population centers with the 3 busiest airports. Makes sense to me. Knock on wood but I think this is positive news that at least in Montana, it is containable.

 

[----]

Montana Coronavirus And COVID-19 News

05/24/21How Montana's New Laws Limit Public Health PowersMontana’s Republican majority this legislative session took aim at public health officials’…

www.mtpr.org

News this morning said 12 confirmed cases with 700 tests reporting. Cases are in Yellowstone (Billings), Gallatin (Bozeman), and Missoula Counties. The 3 biggest population centers with the 3 busiest airports. Makes sense to me. Knock on wood but I think this is positive news that at least in Montana, it is containable.

I wonder what the potential is to close interstate travel to places like us that seem to have somehow slid by without it.

Way out of my wheelhouse, but it seems like creating "safe zones" where after a mandatory 14 day lockdown, we can go back to work and start injecting some life in to the economy, or even manufacturing medical supplies.

Obviously I have a selfish slant on this one, and theres probably a thousand reasons why it wouldn't work.

 

[Hunting Wife]

Actually...1700/month can’t be their all cause mortality. They loose close to 60k/year. That’s 5250/month. Something doesn’t add up.

I don’t have time or inclination to do any more deep diving for people just to argue. I don’t know where exactly your numbers are coming from so don’t know what exactly they are describing, but let’s go with them for arguments sake. If 5250 is the norm in 30 days, it would take 11 days to reach that given 475 deaths per day. Seems significantly worse to me.

 

[Deleted member 16014]

Actually...1700/month can’t be their all cause mortality. They loose close to 60k/year. That’s 5250/month. Something doesn’t add up.

The preponderance of evidence is clear, and that is the point. You would argue with yourself about your own name if you ran out of internet forums.

 

[LWC55]

Actually...1700/month can’t be their all cause mortality. They loose close to 60k/year. That’s 5250/month. Something doesn’t add up.

Italy Crude death rate, 1950-2023 - knoema.com

In 2020, crude death rate for Italy was 2.8 deaths per thousand population. Crude death rate of Italy fell gradually from 31.24 deaths per thousand population in 1971 to 2.8 deaths per thousand population in 2020. Number of deaths over a given period divided by the person-years lived by the...

knoema.com

I'll use some roundish numbers and somebody can correct me if I'm wrong. Italy has a normal death rate of 10 deaths per 1,000 or .01 per year. Italy has a population of 60 million. .01 x 60,000,000 = 600,000 deaths per year. 600,000/365 = 1643 deaths per day. That is a average deaths per day in Italy. I bet during cold and flu season months of a normal year would account for considerably more than average.

 

[VikingsGuy]

The preponderance of evidence is clear, and that is the point. You would argue with yourself about your own name if you ran out of internet forums.

Nothing about this situation is clear. I agree we each have to filter the back and forth sometimes, but I have found most of ImBillT's questions straight forward and not laced with the snarky crap a few keep bringing. Let's stop with the personal shots every time we don't like somebody's post.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Italy Crude death rate, 1950-2023 - knoema.com

In 2020, crude death rate for Italy was 2.8 deaths per thousand population. Crude death rate of Italy fell gradually from 31.24 deaths per thousand population in 1971 to 2.8 deaths per thousand population in 2020. Number of deaths over a given period divided by the person-years lived by the...

knoema.com

I bet during cold and flu season months of a normal year would account for considerably more than average.

It would be more helpful not to "guess" and leave the hanging implication that the data supports your minority view. Go get the data, make your case.

 

[ImBillT]

I don’t have time or inclination to do any more deep diving for people just to argue. I don’t know where exactly your numbers are coming from so don’t know what exactly they are describing, but let’s go with them for arguments sake. If 5250 is the norm in 30 days, it would take 11 days to reach that given 475 deaths per day. Seems significantly worse to me.

But how would that work out seasonally? We both know that mortality is not the same in the summer. We’re turning our economy into a dumpster fire. We might as well be certain that more people are dying than normal. Imagine if China did nothing more than catch new type of common cold virus at its genesis,scare the world into panic, and bought everyone’s stock market.

I’m not saying we should all go mingle and pretend covid-19 doesn’t exist. I’m saying that we should all remain skeptical and open minded and that we should seek data that justifies our actions.

How many covid-19 patients are at the hospital your friend or relative works at and what is their condition?

Cancer surgery is elective? I hope no one in my community is missing out on a cancer surgery as we prepare for covid-19...we have three cases, and I’m pretty sure they’re all at home, not in the hospital.

 

[ImBillT]

The preponderance of evidence is clear, and that is the point. You would argue with yourself about your own name if you ran out of internet forums.

There is a lot of space between 1700 and 5250. Nothing about that is clear.

 

[BigHornRam]

I wonder what the potential is to close interstate travel to places like us that seem to have somehow slid by without it.

Way out of my wheelhouse, but it seems like creating "safe zones" where after a mandatory 14 day lockdown, we can go back to work and start injecting some life in to the economy, or even manufacturing medical supplies.

Obviously I have a selfish slant on this one, and theres probably a thousand reasons why it wouldn't work.

Canadian border has been closed to all non essential back and forth travel, so restricting interstate travel for awhile could be a possibility.

 

[beginnerhunter]

Comparing Italy to the US doesn't seem useful. Comparing Italy to the Northeast would be more analogous in terms of population density and urban hospital systems, right? For example, Arkansas (my state) has a similar population and density to Bosnia. We also have similar case numbers so far. Although I'd imagine travel is much more restricted there than it is here, which may hurt us.

Just saying the situation in NY is going to be a lot different than a mountain west state (aside from urban settings or travel hot spots like Colorado). What rural states lack in hospital capacity might be made up for in natural social distancing. The opposite in urban centers.

 

[ImBillT]

Italy Crude death rate, 1950-2023 - knoema.com

In 2020, crude death rate for Italy was 2.8 deaths per thousand population. Crude death rate of Italy fell gradually from 31.24 deaths per thousand population in 1971 to 2.8 deaths per thousand population in 2020. Number of deaths over a given period divided by the person-years lived by the...

knoema.com

I'll use some roundish numbers and somebody can correct me if I'm wrong. Italy has a normal death rate of 10 deaths per 1,000 or .01 per year. Italy has a population of 60 million. .01 x 60,000,000 = 600,000 deaths per year. 600,000/365 = 1643 deaths per day. That is a average deaths per day in Italy. I bet during cold and flu season months of a normal year would account for considerably more than average.

I missed a zero again and 475 still had me wondering! If they average 1643 deaths/day, you can bet that’s a lot higher during cold/flu season. Are we all 100% that the 475 deaths from covid-19 would not have been 475 deaths from a different cold virus? We should be really really sure that this isn’t just a new common cold before we destroy ourselves.

Stay inside, don’t mingle, I’m not suggesting that we do things differently. I’m suggesting that we seek good data instead of falling prey to mass hysteria.

 

[LWC55]

It would be more helpful not to "guess" and leave the hanging implication that the data supports your minority view. Go get the data, make your case.

Do you disagree that average of 1643 people die in Italy every day? I can't find the data per month but one can easily infer that this number would be the higher than average during cold and flu season in an elderly population. Agree?