Covid-19 Data, Models, References - NO DISCUSSION

[JohnCushman]

China Supplied Faulty Coronavirus Test Kits to Spain, Czech Republic

The majority of rapid test coronavirus test kits supplied by China to Spain and the Czech Republic are faulty, local news outlets reported.Up to 80 percent of the 150,000 portable, quick coronavirus test kits China delivered to the Czech Republic earlier this month were faulty, according to...

news.yahoo.com

 

[LWC55]

I said I'd update if Dr. Frank's models changed significantly. Well they have with new data coming out and the latest projection I saw was about 6,000 US Deaths. As more data comes out this will likely change again. Not trying to hide anything. It is not totally unlike a weather forecast. Where on Sunday it shows a 80% chance of rain for Friday. Well by Wednesday the rain chance for Friday may have dropped to 20%. That is a big difference. The weather man isn't clueless. That is just the weather man using the most current data they have to try and forecast what will happen in the future. Much the same with Dr. Frank. His models are a forecast using the most current data. Not perfect and changing daily. I'm still looking for more models. If anyone has any different ones that are current and regularly updated, please post.

For perspective, The imperial College of London (who's model many governments used to set their corona policy) as late as March 17th estimated the US would have 1.1 Million Deaths, even if we used more ambitious mitigation (social distancing) measures. For the record, I don't think either one of the models is being produced by Quacks. I think they are likely both done by well meaning geniuses looking at different data to come up with vastly different conclusions. It is still yet to be seen which one will end up closer. For everyone's sake I sure hope it is the lower one.

U.S., U.K. Shift COVID-19 Responses In Light Of Imperial College Report Modeling Prevention Strategies' Impacts On Disease Spread | KFF

CNN: U.S., U.K. coronavirus strategies shifted following U.K. epidemiologists’ ominous report “A study by U.K. epidemiologists predicts that attempts to slow, or mitigate — rather than actively halt, or suppress — the novel coronavirus could overwhelm the number of intensive care hospital beds...

www.kff.org

If Britain and the United States pursued more-ambitious measures to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, to slow but not necessarily stop the epidemic over the coming few months, they could reduce mortality by half, to 260,000 people in the United Kingdom and 1.1 million in the United States…” (Booth, 3/17).

 

[kansasdad]

Henry Schein, one of the world’s largest dental/medical/veterinary suppliers sent out a memo, partially reproduced here:





A test to detect those who have already faced and overcome the virus will be a game changer for the denominator.

 

[SAJ-99]

I said I'd update if Dr. Frank's models changed significantly. Well they have with new data coming out and the latest projection I saw was about 6,000 US Deaths. As more data comes out this will likely change again. Not trying to hide anything. It is not totally unlike a weather forecast. Where on Sunday it shows a 80% chance of rain for Friday. Well by Wednesday the rain chance for Friday may have dropped to 20%. That is a big difference. The weather man isn't clueless. That is just the weather man using the most current data they have to try and forecast what will happen in the future. Much the same with Dr. Frank. His models are a forecast using the most current data. Not perfect and changing daily. I'm still looking for more models. If anyone has any different ones that are current and regularly updated, please post.

For perspective, The imperial College of London (who's model many governments used to set their corona policy) as late as March 17th estimated the US would have 1.1 Million Deaths, even if we used more ambitious mitigation (social distancing) measures. For the record, I don't think either one of the models is being produced by Quacks. I think they are likely both done by well meaning geniuses looking at different data to come up with vastly different conclusions. It is still yet to be seen which one will end up closer. For everyone's sake I sure hope it is the lower one.

U.S., U.K. Shift COVID-19 Responses In Light Of Imperial College Report Modeling Prevention Strategies' Impacts On Disease Spread | KFF

CNN: U.S., U.K. coronavirus strategies shifted following U.K. epidemiologists’ ominous report “A study by U.K. epidemiologists predicts that attempts to slow, or mitigate — rather than actively halt, or suppress — the novel coronavirus could overwhelm the number of intensive care hospital beds...

www.kff.org

If Britain and the United States pursued more-ambitious measures to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, to slow but not necessarily stop the epidemic over the coming few months, they could reduce mortality by half, to 260,000 people in the United Kingdom and 1.1 million in the United States…” (Booth, 3/17).

As has been pointed out, I think your description is accurate but also the problem with the model.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting

 

[Doublecluck]

Dr. Vladimir Zelenko has now treated 699 coronavirus patients with 100% success using Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate, Zinc and Z-Pak [UPDATES] - Tech Startups

April 11 Update: A new research study reveals that COVID-19 attacks hemoglobin in red blood cells, rendering it incapable of transporting oxygen. In the conclusion, researchers found that chloroquine could prevent the virus attacking the hemoglobin in the red blood cells. Last Wednesday, we...

techstartups.com

 

[CiK]

Fauci: U.S. Could Have 100k to 200k Deaths from Coronavirus

Sunday, during an interview on CNN's "State of the Union," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the coronavirus pandemic could cause "between 100,000 and 200,000" deaths in the United States. | Clips

www.breitbart.com

I have no idea anymore where they get the numbers. I quit caring because its pin the tail on the donkey, epidemiology-style. Dr Frank or Dr Fauci....they try but its just numbers. You can't model stupid, you can't model arrogance and you can't model fear.

To the stupid, they will continue thinking this is just a run of the mill virus and do what they want to do. To the arrogant, they won't believe they can be infected and they will do what they want to do. To the fearful, they will just run from places like NYC and infect their new destination. They are the reasons we will have rolling numbers.

In the end, I am just trying to do my best to be a good human being to my pregnant wife, to my mom and dad, to my grandmother and to my elderly neighbor. If that means I have to lock my family down and wash my hands until the skin comes off....so be it.

Stay safe!

 

[np307]

Well here's some small-scale data. One elderly family member with health problems has tested positive and another has been admitted to the hospital with symptoms though not tested yet.

Both had contact with someone who knew they were exposed but didn't think it was a big deal.

Though still awaiting confirmation from a test, my grandpa passed away today as a presumed positive case. It seems consistent with descriptions I've seen in the way it progressed with him.

 

[Dave N]

Though still awaiting confirmation from a test, my grandpa passed away today as a presumed positive case. It seems consistent with descriptions I've seen in the way it progressed with him.

Sorry for your loss.

 

[406dn]

Though still awaiting confirmation from a test, my grandpa passed away today as a presumed positive case. It seems consistent with descriptions I've seen in the way it progressed with him.

Please accept my condolences. May he rest in peace.

 

[np307]

Sorry for your loss.

Please accept my condolences. May he rest in peace.

Thank you.

 

[Trial153]

Very sorry for your loss

 

[VikingsGuy]

Though still awaiting confirmation from a test, my grandpa passed away today as a presumed positive case. It seems consistent with descriptions I've seen in the way it progressed with him.

So sorry to hear of your loss.

 

[Trial153]

I am back into work for the next 48 hours.

We have had four medics come up positive over the last week, the original two are being traced back to contact with patinet that had a cardiac arrest.
All four are in good health and between there late 20s and early 40s, as of now three of the four been hospitalized. We have few more people out waiting tests and some like myself cleared to work but on a watch list.

 

[onpoint]

I am back into work for the next 48 hours.

We have had four medics come up positive over the last week, the original two are being traced back to contact with patinet that had a cardiac arrest.
All four are good health and between there late 30 and early 40s as of now three of the four been hospitalized. We have few more out waiting tests and some like myself cleared to work but on a watch list.

...... no discussion.
You stay well, and your co-workers, and your's and their's .
Thanks for reality, wish it was a different one........................................................

 

[Jim/Wa]

Dr. Vladimir Zelenko has now treated 699 coronavirus patients with 100% success using Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate, Zinc and Z-Pak [UPDATES] - Tech Startups

April 11 Update: A new research study reveals that COVID-19 attacks hemoglobin in red blood cells, rendering it incapable of transporting oxygen. In the conclusion, researchers found that chloroquine could prevent the virus attacking the hemoglobin in the red blood cells. Last Wednesday, we...

techstartups.com

This is attributed to him as well: "Since the start of the coronavirus outbreak, Zelenko, 46, has shared material on Facebook suggesting that the virus may have been deliberately developed by China as a population control device and that its threat was exaggerated by Democrats."

I'm seriously doubtful about his legitimacy. Most states have shut down prescribing of Hydroxychloroquine after providers started to wipe out the supply writing prescriptions for themselves, family, friends, etc. New York did it on March 7, I believe. No hydroxychloroquine without a positive test result unless you're enrolled in a formal, state approved drug study. The limited number of formal studies, at this time, are looking at hospitalized patients. For this guys "study" to be true, he would have had to have seen 699 COVID-19 positive patients prior to that date. Perhaps he's legit but I'm skeptical. The use of Hydroxychloroquine for treating viruses is not new, by the way. It's been studied in Dengue fever, for example, with marginal results.

 

[Trial153]

Amazing

auspice

nextstrain.org

 

[BuzzH]

I am back into work for the next 48 hours.

We have had four medics come up positive over the last week, the original two are being traced back to contact with patinet that had a cardiac arrest.
All four are in good health and between there late 20s and early 40s, as of now three of the four been hospitalized. We have few more people out waiting tests and some like myself cleared to work but on a watch list.

Stay safe...and thank you for what you do.

 

[LWC55]

No projections here. Just the numbers posted on a graph. World o meters has 525 deaths on 3/28 and 264 on 3/29. Such a big drop that it could be bad data. But that is what has been posted. Hopefully it is accurate and a continuing trend. Could be just an anomaly though.

 

[----]

Amazing

auspice

nextstrain.org

This is incredible. I had to forward to my work email so I could look at it on the big screen. Wow. I really I wish I was smart enough to understand the mutation/strains issue better. It's fascinating to me.

Here's a couple links that I've appreciated the last couple days-

Empowering and Protecting Your Family During COVID-19 with Dr. Dave Price

Dr. Price has treated thousands of patients at the Weill Cornell Medical Center in New York. It’s critically important for American families to heed his four steps and advice.

www.wesmoss.com

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

Due to my health issues, I have borderline OCD when it comes to hygiene. It causes issues, but the plus side is I haven't had a cold in almost 3 years, despite not making my own antibodies. These links are reassuring in that these practices will likely translate to this virus.

 

[Nameless Range]

A Solution if We Act - Marginal REVOLUTION

Many simulations have been run in recent weeks using standard epidemiological models and the emerging consensus, as I read it, is that test, trace and isolate can be very effective. Paul Romer’s simulations are here and he notes that a COVID-19 test does not have to be especially accurate for...

marginalrevolution.com