Common Sense From Connell

[TrickyTross]

I agree with the science issue. The problem is policy. For instance, the science can show you need to do A if you want B; but if you want X then you have to do Y. What do we want? You want an emphasis on wildlife. I understand that. It' a desire much more in accord with my personal desires than, say, condos or mining or logging. I would just like to see wildlife of certain species and numbers and locations that emulate, as closely as possible, that palette we started with.

I don't trust locals to know better than outsiders, precisely because locals all have different policy points. Randy, Buzz and I differ, and so do those mountain bikers you have do deal with and a thousand other constituencies. I see the federal land managers as buffer between all the competing interests. They are not perfect by any stretch of the imagination though. I used to sue them all the time because me or my clients didn't perceive them as acting in accord with their mandate. Their scientists often helped us sue them because they knew the agency was not following the science or the regulations. And litigation was not a cash cow. I didn't make squat, even on cases won, until I started wearing a black hat (working for industry). Then I started making money. That's when I quit because I couldn't sleep at night.

In the end, though, my policy preferences leave what everyone wants intact, or endeavors to return it to what it was that we liked so much in the first place. "Management" can play a roll in that, but a lot of it is "managing" people and their demands on the land; not simply the land itself. In other words, my policy preferences endeavor to leave to the next generation what was left to us. It's not like my policy preferences irreversibly alter the biome. If the next generation wants to change it or ruin it, that's their call. But if they don't have it to go into and develop a relationship with, I doubt they will care about it. And they will get further and further from ever knowing what it was; further even than we are. And we aren't even sure what it was any more. And that, to me, is one of the saddest things I know.

I personally have not attempted anything with the litigation, but I have witnessed a few groups do very well off of it. One if them is a "Environmental law Center" with a "Southern" exposure....

Yea. the 7 generations mantra was taught to us from studying about the Cherokee. That's the common goal. Leave it better than we found it, but also, maybe make improvements upon it that set the next generation up for better opportunities of restoration, less interference, who knows?

Obviously people are not going to agree on everything. Beauty of being a human, and especially of being in this country. But, I don't think locals are the plague. I think the source must be considered. If it is a local movement based off of timber interest for public school funding, then that's got to be taken into consideration when you look at what they want. Obviously, I want whatever increases my chances of pursuing organic free-range food with my bow and/or gun. And the fact I like the pursuit. So that's taken into account. But too many times it comes to a standstill and then the same old same old continues. Compromise is a bad worked apparently. Somethings got to give, somethings got to change.

Reckon we will see.

 

[BigHornRam]

So Paul, which mills do you think will bid on this and based on the current lumber market what will the logs have to go for to be profitable for the mill?

You're the lumber broker Tony, you tell me. The p pine will probably have a hard time finding a home. The fir won't. Any bets on when the trees start tipping over?

 

[BigHornRam]

All what resistance? Sounds like a bunch of locals to me. Don't you want local input? Don't locals know best?

Yep, locals. Locals that bought a house on a Forest Service Access road and then object when logging trucks are allowed to drive on it. Same locals that were on a stage 1 evacuation notice 2 weeks ago. Locals that signed the anti-trapping initiative. Those locals!:W:

 

[tjones]

You're the lumber broker Tony, you tell me. The p pine will probably have a hard time finding a home. The fir won't. Any bets on when the trees start tipping over?

I know what I think, I am asking you what you think. Finding a home is one thing, profitable and marketable is another. Do tell Paul what do you think?

 

[James Riley]

Yep, locals. Locals that bought a house on a Forest Service Access road and then object when logging trucks are allowed to drive on it. Same locals that were on a stage 1 evacuation notice 2 weeks ago. Locals that signed the anti-trapping initiative. Those locals!:W:

So then, do we want to let locals have more input than outsiders when it comes to federal lands? Or are we going to start parsing "good" locals from "bad" locals, and only let the good locals make the calls? Anyway, if that country has never been cut then they should all get the hell out as far as I'm concerned. If it has been cut, then let the locals/loggers/pilgrims pick over the carcass.

 

[shoots-straight]

Paul, do you support the subsidizing of special interest groups in this nation, even if that industry is headed down a no win path? Are you OK with paying for public land treatment so the people moving into the forest are safe? If your good with this wouldn't that be sort of liberal?

 

[BigHornRam]

Paul, do you support the subsidizing of special interest groups in this nation, even if that industry is headed down a no win path? Are you OK with paying for public land treatment so the people moving into the forest are safe? If your good with this wouldn't that be sort of liberal?

Our country is headed down a no win path, Shoot's, not just the timber industry.

I'm for letting the people moving into the forest be responsible for their own safety. I'm for returning the "old whore" forest back into a healthy resilient forest. I'm for leaving the Wilderness and large roadless areas to mother nature to manage. I'm for sportsmen's groups like WSF and Elk Foundation raising funds to help the public land managers do habitat restoration. I'm for the USFS providing a sustainable supply of forest products from their lands.

If this makes me sort of liberal, guilty as charged.

 

[BigHornRam]

I know what I think, I am asking you what you think. Finding a home is one thing, profitable and marketable is another. Do tell Paul what do you think?

The "high bid" in the forest work south of Darby a few years ago actually got a check. There was a lot of restoration required as part of the bid.

I think Julie is going to be giving away a 6.5 million bdft of free wood.

Want to start up a small local sawmill?

 

[tjones]

The "high bid" in the forest work south of Darby a few years ago actually got a check. There was a lot of restoration required as part of the bid.

I think Julie is going to be giving away a 6.5 million bdft of free wood.

Want to start up a small local sawmill?

With 2x4 DF 2&btr printing at $375 and 2x6-9' DF studs printing at $390, how far do you figure a mill can truck those west side logs? Sustainable lumber supply needs a sustainable lumber market. Basic stuff.

 

[Ben Lamb]

Our country is headed down a no win path, Shoot's, not just the timber industry.

I'm for letting the people moving into the forest be responsible for their own safety. I'm for returning the "old whore" forest back into a healthy resilient forest. I'm for leaving the Wilderness and large roadless areas to mother nature to manage. I'm for sportsmen's groups like WSF and Elk Foundation raising funds to help the public land managers do habitat restoration. I'm for the USFS providing a sustainable supply of forest products from their lands.

If this makes me sort of liberal, guilty as charged.

Hippy.

 

[BigHornRam]

With 2x4 DF 2&btr printing at $375 and 2x6-9' DF studs printing at $390, how far do you figure a mill can truck those west side logs? Sustainable lumber supply needs a sustainable lumber market. Basic stuff.

I put up some p pine t&g 2 x 6 this morning at one of those Westside next to forest homes that was running $800. Got to think value added Tony. I'm putting it up on a doug fir post and beam structure that cost the home owner 10k.

Want to start up a small local mill?

 

[tjones]

I put up some p pine t&g 2 x 6 this morning at one of those Westside next to forest homes that was running $800. Got to think value added Tony. I'm putting it up on a doug fir post and beam structure that cost the home owner 10k.

Want to start up a small local mill?

Dude, what you pay and what a mill gets are two different things. Couple hundred BF doesn't make a market. BF in millions do. I can get you a truck of 2x6 pp T&G for a lot less then that. 26,000 BF, where would you like it delivered? Swing by the office sometime and I can show you how it works. Do you thinks a local sawmill would make it?

 

[BigHornRam]

Dude, a local mill might be able to make it if they cut out the lumber broker.

So you don't want to startup a local mill. How about selling those 6.5 million bdft of free logs to an existing mill?

http://www.thenmiway.com/log-market-report/

Area 4

Western Montana
(Counties west of Interstate 15)
DF, WL 335-425 350-480
GF, WH 320-420 320-400
PP 300-375 325-450
SP 350-375 350-430
LP 350-375 350-430

Explain this to everyone lumber broker

 

[tjones]

Paul, what you still aren't grasping is the market end of the lumber business. A mill needs more then just a good log supply.

Let's go back and look at your 2x6 T&G product. Here is probably what happened to that lumber before you touched it. The mill ran the PP 2x6, depending on the run size they would have ended up with some down grade, #3 and economy. The #3 probably sold for $200, maybe less, the Econ $150. Not all the #2 got ran to pattern. It probably sold for mid $300. Some mills can run their own T&G, most can't . So a broker buys a random length truck load of 2x6 and books a truck to take to to a reman and To have the pattern ran. There is a cost here. After the T&G is ran the load gets moved and probably sold again to a distribution yard. Then specified lengths get sold to the local lumber yard. Moved yet again. It then gets sold to your home owner.

Now back out all the transportation charges the cost of running the pattern and the sellers in between you and the mill. Factor in the log cost and the hit the mill took selling the down grade and tell me how well the mill did on this run. Get the end cost up to $1000 and maybe you have something, but your home owner wouldn't like that.

This is a very basic example on one load of lumber. There could be lots of variations, but maybe this will help you understand Paul.

Swing by the office sometime I can show you how the market works on studs, dimension,boards, and low grade from mill to end user.

 

[BigHornRam]

Tony,

I have a better grasp on the market than you might think. Montana mills need to leave stud and 2 x 4 production to places with fast growing, poor quality trees. Montana mills need to focus on using our slow growing (tight grain), dense, strong trees to their best use and premium pricing. Need to start promoting certified sustainable marketing. Just like Marks Lumber and this Missoula based business is doing.......

http://www.sustainablelumberco.com/

 

[BigHornRam]

Tony'

You still didn't answer how a mill can pay 335 to 425 / 1000 for delivered fir logs and sell 2 x 4s for 375 and still make a profit.

Answer is log scale.

http://westcoastlands.net/SawmillLogScale.html

Modern mills are getting up to 150% production on scaled logs. Plus extras like bark, chips and sawdust. Still a tough way to make a living but it's possible with a positive attitude. Won't happen with a negative attitude however.

 

[johnp]

This is especially true on smaller diameter logs. I've been told that the extra time it takes to mill up small logs is why the log scale is so much less than the actual bf of lumber that can be produced.

 

[BigHornRam]

Time to get back out of the weeds discussing lumber and log pricing and back to the original topic

Tony,

Do you agree with some, none, or all of Pat's comments in the OP. Be specific with your agreement or disagreement.

 

[BigHornRam]

Good current article on topic

http://www.kxlf.com/story/32474100/bullock-signs-timber-management-agreement-w-forest-service

 

[BuzzH]

Nothing new in that article, people on this board have been saying the same thing for a long time.

Management costs money, when Congress strips funding from land management agencies for 2 decades, in a shock to absolutely nobody, management stops happening. When precious few management dollars are diverted to fight fire, management doesn't happen either.

Imagine that?