Can you out live point creep?

[Carl 9.3x62]

My dad started buying me points when I was 11. I am 34 now. Drew a moose tag 11 years ago and have about 23 or 24 sheep points.

 

[elkantlers]

I have 23 desert sheep points for Utah. I'm 46 and expect to draw before I'm 50

 

[MTLabrador]

Yeah I imagine that folks that start from birth MT, and 11 Wy are huge outliers. Interesting to see what the poll shows esp, as HTers tend to be 1% hunters.

Aside, I signed up my nephew for his MT ALS number the day he was born and got #2... some dad or grandpa must have been in the freaking delivery room doing it lol

My ALS number is #3. I think I’m giving up on my Montana points. Nonresident odds are downright depressing. I’ll hang my MSG hopes on Wyoming.

 

[Forney]

I hope this doesn't hijack the thread, but I'm curious what HT'ers think the hunting population will be in 15-20 years? I guess I thought less and less people my age (29) would apply for points and my age would have less point creep than older demographics. Maybe I'm delusional.

If you could have the point creep by each age group compiled and on my desk by noon that would be great. thanks Peter

 

[TOGIE]

I hope this doesn't hijack the thread, but I'm curious what HT'ers think the hunting population will be in 15-20 years? I guess I thought less and less people my age (29) would apply for points and my age would have less point creep than older demographics. Maybe I'm delusional.

If you could have the point creep by each age group compiled and on my desk by noon that would be great. thanks Peter

i have no hard science or data to back this up

but, my assumption right now is that hard numbers of hunters in the united states will slightly increase or stay about the same. the total as a percentage of population will slightly drop over that time frame

 

[Irrelevant]

I hope this doesn't hijack the thread, but I'm curious what HT'ers think the hunting population will be in 15-20 years? I guess I thought less and less people my age (29) would apply for points and my age would have less point creep than older demographics. Maybe I'm delusional.

If you could have the point creep by each age group compiled and on my desk by noon that would be great. thanks Peter

I would take that bet. We are making more and more money and hunters are finding more and more resources to both go out of state and buy points. Point creep will only get worse.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I hope this doesn't hijack the thread, but I'm curious what HT'ers think the hunting population will be in 15-20 years? I guess I thought less and less people my age (29) would apply for points and my age would have less point creep than older demographics. Maybe I'm delusional.

If you could have the point creep by each age group compiled and on my desk by noon that would be great. thanks Peter

Point creep is a problem1 for a few species/hunt codes in each state.

It's all part of the larger demographic conversation we have been having. The us population is growing, the percentage of hunters nation wide is decreasing, but the net number of hunters much of the west is increasing (just not keeping up with population growth)

Further not many people apply for MSG + Quality Elk/Deer/Pronghorn in the context of US hunters, or even hunters of a given state. I would surmise that most folks who apply for MSG in 1 state do so in multiple.

There were ~31,000 sheep application is CO for 312 tags.

There were 213,000 elk applications in CO.

There were ~15,000,000 licensed hunters in the US total.
Per Field and stream


So there are 6.3 Million hunters in that peak "first point" buying demographic.

Of that 6.3 million only ~3,000 need to jump in each year to keep point creep going for CO sheep. That's 1 hunter in 2,000 nation wide.

I hope this doesn't hijack the thread, but I'm curious what HT'ers think the hunting population will be in 15-20 years?

Something like this... just a WAG based on reported trends of the average age continuing to get older. (I drew in the red)



1 Required points increasing every year to the point that one can never actually draw. If a 0 point tag is now 2 points but you can still draw and then goes to 4 but kinda holds that's not the specific problem I'm referring to.

 

[Forney]

Wow, thanks for the analysis. That really does paint the picture. I'm glad I didn't see this BEFORE I started buying Montana points for the big three... Or maybe I could've saved myself some $ and broken hopes and dreams

 

[Jape]

As baby boomers continue to age the hunting population’s average age will continue to increase. However, that will not solve point creep because social media, availability of information, the organic farm to table movement, and greater prosperity equals fewer tags even if we have fewer hunters. The ONLY thing that will help solve this problem will be conservation efforts to increase access, habitat, and herds. IMO.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

As baby boomers continue to age the hunting population’s average age will continue to increase. However, that will not solve point creep because social media, availability of information, the organic farm to table movement, and greater prosperity equals fewer tags even if we have fewer hunters. The ONLY thing that will help solve this problem will be conservation efforts to increase access, habitat, and herds. IMO.

Buy early and often

Build your own!

Speaking of inadequate...... My google-fu is weak today. Does this fella have a website that I can't find? I have been dipping my toes into the world of a custom hunting rifle and have been snooping around looking for a builder. I couldn’t find it either, looks like only Facebook, but it...

www.hunttalk.com

 

[npaden]

No. I cannot out live point creep.

Wyoming still makes me buy them for bighorn sheep though.

 

[Jwill]

I'm sitting on 15 elk points in CO @ 40yo. I'm not expecting I'll ever draw one of the glory tags there...

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I'm sitting on 15 elk points in CO @ 40yo. I'm not expecting I'll ever draw one of the glory tags there...

I think you have a far better chance at a breaks rifle tag than a CO 2,201, or 10 tag.

 

[Carl 9.3x62]

As bad as point creep is, at least in Wyoming you have a small chance of drawing a tag in the random draw.

 

[Irrelevant]

We have the answer floating the air right now. It only affects old hunters.... #stopwearingyourfacemask

I mean it in jest... sort of.

 

[JAG]

As baby boomers continue to age the hunting population’s average age will continue to increase. However, that will not solve point creep because social media, availability of information, the organic farm to table movement, and greater prosperity equals fewer tags even if we have fewer hunters. The ONLY thing that will help solve this problem will be conservation efforts to increase access, habitat, and herds. IMO.

It appears the point creep does have a solution, but unfortunately its as the baby boomers age out. The ones that are in great health may be able to reap the benefit of their points and glory tags when they turn 71.

In the second statement, you reference social media, availability of information. (Can we call this the 'Newberg effect'?) In reading the graph, it seems the internet age reached its highest benefit in 2012 since the percent seems stable (red rectangle) at about 1.8%. The graph shows that 2012 was about 1.8% participants at age 45. Then eight years later in 2020 the age distribution remained at 1.8% for age 53.

Another interesting trend observed in this graph is the starting age spiked at age 23 in 1992, younger at 21 in 2012, and older at 25 in 2020. This could be because hunting is getting much more costly and requires more time for people to establish their careers.

Another trend on the opposite end of the graph, the boomer drop-off happens a year later for every 10 (1992-2012) to 8 (2012-2020) years; this matches what we know about people who continue to live healthier and longer lives.

 

[BrentD]

Even if you can outlive point creep, what are you going to do in the intervening 10 to 30 yrs?

Take up golf?

 

[SaskHunter]

I'm only buying points for deer, pronghorn and elk in 7 or so states and will be happy with lower to medium end tags when it comes to trophy quality.

The one fancy tag I intend on applying for starting next year is Wyoming Bison but there's no point creep there. That 4,402 USD non-res tag is 5,763.06 CAD at the current exchange rate, maybe I'm retarded but I really want to give it a try and think it's my best chance at free range bison. I'm also fine with 5%-ish draw odds.

 

[SaskHunter]

Even if you can outlive point creep, what are you going to do in the intervening 10 to 30 yrs?

Take up golf?

Hunt other species in other states?!?

If I were American with my current salary I'd be ALL OVER Canadian hunts...

 

[MTLabrador]

Hunt other species in other states?!?

If I were American with my current salary I'd be ALL OVER Canadian hunts...

^This.
I’m spoiled as a Wyoming resident with more big game opportunities than I could hunt in a lifetime, but even for someone who doesn’t live out west there’s still tons of opportunity. Wait for 20 years to beat the point creep for primo tags if you want, but you can still hunt bull elk, cow elk, deer, bears, and antelope every single year in several states.

Anyone who isn’t hunting bull elk every year is doing so by choice.