Are we haggling over the wrong things?

[OverlordBear]

Xi, is that you??? Pie in the sky nonsense…the only way to achieve this would be to force sterilization and/or abortion. The only compliance would be among the most affluent and most capable of providing. Maybe we should start with eliminating “undesirables” and entire ethnic/racial/political groups that whoever is in power doesn’t agree with. No one has ever tried that….

At some point how do you feed 8 billion people? With an ever growing rate, 70 years ago there was 2 billion people on Earth. The math doesn’t add up. We can try to curb ourselves or slam our head into carrying capacity and experience a mass extinction event. Putting our heads in the sand doesn’t change the math.

 

[BirdManMike]

This is really a wonderful topic, especially considering this is bulletin board about hunting.

 

[Caseknife]

Excellent article, thanks for sending it along, @Hunting Wife.

China did the "population control", one child thing, 40 or so years ago. IIRC that was a talking point in one of my college classes. Helped them for a while, but don't think that is still a policy there or not.

When the Covid pandemic was in full swing, a good friend of mine asked what I thought was causing; all the shortages/excessive spending and everything else that made no sense at the time? I thought for a minute and then said, "It's the "me first" attitude of the US population".
Everybody thinks that they deserve the spoils and to hell with everybody else. Seems the majority of the population has no care about others or consequences of their actions, and they will do what they want regardless of the outcome.

Can't remember which course it was in college, Ecology, Wildlife Management, Biology, regardless, it was the statement, "Extinction is the norm", has stuck with me for over 40 years. It was in reference to wildlife historically, but in the world we live in now, it speaks of the human population of the future.

 

[huntnpack]

Just a reminder, we're focusing on the most frustrating scale here (time, population, etc.) the scale just big enough for us to be frustrated by what's out of our control without acknowledging its a small piece of the inevitable.

The most recent book to essentially guilt me out of a cycle of fatalism was Punke's "Last Stand". The odds and buy-in for wildlife conservation seemed so dire then, and they achieved serious feats.

Will that matter in a few hundred thousand or million years? No. But it was worth it.

 

[rogerthat]

And we don't yet know the effect of Covid 19/Vax on birth rates.

We could only hope

 

[Hilljackoutlaw]

Ehh...we had a good run!

 

[WesternWyoming]

I don't how to say this without sounding trite, and a bit fruity, but I really feel it is a lack of spiritual development in humans, we focus so much on external crap (the stuff you mentioned), and not enough on improving ourselves. I genuinely feel that nearly every person wants to be a better human, but for most of us we only give it a few seconds of attention each day, and sadly for some they don't even know where to start.

(Yup, that came out just about as trite and fruity as I expected.)

Not at all. Thank you for saying it.

 

[3855WIN]

Not sure what y’all are worried about.

World population likely to shrink after mid-century, forecasting major shifts in global population and economic power

With widespread, sustained declines in fertility, the world population will likely peak in 2064 at around 9.7 billion, and then decline to about 8.8 billion by 2100 -- about 2 billion lower than some previous estimates, according to a new study.

www.sciencedaily.com

Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born

Nearly every country will see their populations fall as the world has fewer babies.

www.bbc.com

 

[Raisin Bran]

And we don't yet know the effect of Covid 19/Vax on birth rates.

True! However we’re starting to see a pattern and it isn’t good. www.thecovidblog.com

 

[Raisin Bran]

It is why I believe in child limits globally and any efforts to reduce reproduction of the human race. Globally we are only one dust bowl away from a massive starvation event. If people think wars are bad over oil wait til it is over fresh water and food. People should only reproduce at a replacement rate. Ie two children per couple.

Move to China and see how that works out for ya

 

[BrentD]

I've posted this graphic before, so forgive me if you've seen it before. However, it is relevant and something to ponder just how far out of whack this planet has become. But again, this is just a symptom of the real problem and we continue to focus on and stick bandaids over the symptoms. Like a game of whack-a-mole, we aren't getting ahead. Just falling further and further behind

Lots of interesting questions fall out of this though. At least interesting to me in a basic science/philosophy sort of way. Things like can capitalism persevere in the face of a falling population (I think not)? Can any economic system survive (China's experiment with the 1-child rule suggests not)? Can any form of life on any planet persist long enough to develop interstellar travel in a meaningful way before overconsuming their own planet and dying out (since the laws of evolution and physics (really the laws of math) are the same everywhere)? Is Soylent Green really where we are headed next (or is there a different dystopia that science fiction has yet to invent, waiting for us up ahead)?

One can go on and on with the speculation about the details, but the end result is the same.

 

[Hunting Wife]

I've posted this graphic before, so forgive me if you've seen it before. However, it is relevant and something to ponder just how far out of whack this planet has become. But again, this is just a symptom of the real problem and we continue to focus on and stick bandaids over the symptoms. Like a game of whack-a-mole, we aren't getting ahead. Just falling further and further behind

Lots of interesting questions fall out of this though. At least interesting to me in a basic science/philosophy sort of way. Things like can capitalism persevere in the face of a falling population (I think not)? Can any economic system survive (China's experiment with the 1-child rule suggests not)? Can any form of life on any planet persist long enough to develop interstellar travel in a meaningful way before overconsuming their own planet and dying out (since the laws of evolution and physics (really the laws of math) are the same everywhere)? Is Soylent Green really where we are headed next (or is there a different dystopia that science fiction has yet to invent, waiting for us up ahead)?

One can go on and on with the speculation about the details, but the end result is the same.

I’ve seen that graphic before somewhere. It’s pretty stark. I don’t think most of us realize just how little “wild” actually remains on the planet.

 

[325 WSM]

I tried reading the article & made it as far as "under Obama" & that was enough for me fricken idiot

 

[BirdManMike]

I tried reading the article & made it as far as "under Obama" & that was enough for me fricken idiot

Thanks for letting us know.

 

[BirdManMike]

I've posted this graphic before, so forgive me if you've seen it before. However, it is relevant and something to ponder just how far out of whack this planet has become. But again, this is just a symptom of the real problem and we continue to focus on and stick bandaids over the symptoms. Like a game of whack-a-mole, we aren't getting ahead. Just falling further and further behind

Lots of interesting questions fall out of this though. At least interesting to me in a basic science/philosophy sort of way. Things like can capitalism persevere in the face of a falling population (I think not)? Can any economic system survive (China's experiment with the 1-child rule suggests not)? Can any form of life on any planet persist long enough to develop interstellar travel in a meaningful way before overconsuming their own planet and dying out (since the laws of evolution and physics (really the laws of math) are the same everywhere)? Is Soylent Green really where we are headed next (or is there a different dystopia that science fiction has yet to invent, waiting for us up ahead)?

One can go on and on with the speculation about the details, but the end result is the same.

That graphic is mind boggling.

 

[longbow51]

True! However we’re starting to see a pattern and it isn’t good. www.thecovidblog.com

I may wait a bit on the data.

 

[Flatbrimmer]

Kind of like getting our oil from countries with far less stringent environmental laws…things that make you go hmmm

Or recycling…. And then we wonder why our garbage piles up on many different shores..

 

[rogerthat]

Great article. This article is the first time I have seen this concept in writing. I have always thought about this since I was a teenager and it has framed my political views - very lonely anti-economy, anti-reproduction, anti-development view basically a view you keep to yourself. The current worlds economic models are all based on growth. If we don’t switch off those to sustainable models then we will populate the earth to carrying capacity and in the process wipe earths humanly resources clean just like an an animal population gone wild. Seems like a creature like us with a very large brain should be able to plan for this eventuality but so far no indication of that happening. Most would rather argue about which parties senile old guy is more fit for office.

 

[BirdManMike]

Great article. This article is the first time I have seen this concept in writing. I have always thought about this since I was a teenager and it has framed my political views - very lonely anti-economy, anti-reproduction, anti-development view basically a view you keep to yourself. The current worlds economic models are all based on growth. If we don’t switch off those to sustainable models then we will populate the earth to carrying capacity and in the process wipe earths humanly resources clean just like an an animal population gone wild. Seems like a creature like us with a very large brain should be able to plan for this eventuality but so far no indication of that happening. Most would rather argue about which parties senile old guy is more fit for office.

We are a species that is instinctively cooperative yet seeks this cooperation with strongly selfish motivation. This idea is the best for me, this economic model is the best me, this political party is the best for me. Its a tribal mindset that permeates nearly every aspect of our lives.

I am as guilty as anyone of western excess. I realize it and think about it regularly, but quite frequently I end up at the conclusion that my changing or forgoing this one thing is just a drop in the bucket, a drop that will not have any real effect in the long term.

I am glad I didnt spawn any spawns. Not because of the - oft cited, even here - tribalistic outrage that 'this country is going is being ruined by the liberals/republicans!' (take your pick) and similar such garbage, but because there is little hope for humanity and this earth at the rate we are moving.

Maybe we are just nihilists.

 

[jakenbake]

Reminds me of a conversation I had, long ago, driving to a work site with a woman who had 2 kids, about world resources, and whether we should have kids (me, recently married, and my close friend, ultimately the Godmother of our daughter (and though she went to Stanford, she pointed out she wasn't a fairy Godmother; couldn't even make that joke now).

She said, are you kidding? People having this much thought should have 10 kids. It's the ones who give it no thought who should have none.

For the record, we had one, the Godmother none.

But if productive parents stop having children, exactly what problem does that solve?

Who will solve the problems?

I had this exact conversation with my dad about ten years ago. Since then, I got married and had two kids; my batshit crazy cousin just had her seventh. The future is going to be ugly.