Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[ismith]

How is it different than 1950-1992?

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

How is it different than 1950-1992?

Whelp, so far Russia has failed to take back shitass Ukraine and the overwhelming support from NATO won’t ever end for this proxy. We’ve previously seen this play and soon there’ll be perestroika, komarades. Because M.A.D. is just a terrible and completely avoidable option.

 

[Sytes]

Any fears contemplating safe harbors in case?

A 32-year market vet shares 4 employment indicators that show the labor market is falling apart — and warns a recession will sink stocks by as much as 70%

In addition to the Sahm Rule, other labor market indicators show concerning trends as well.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Rie Bread]

Any fears contemplating safe harbors in case?

A 32-year market vet shares 4 employment indicators that show the labor market is falling apart — and warns a recession will sink stocks by as much as 70%

In addition to the Sahm Rule, other labor market indicators show concerning trends as well.

www.businessinsider.com

Iv raised a little cash off everything I own. Took one loss and one big gain. Bought a little qqq. Watching and waiting now

 

[BigHornRam]

Any fears contemplating safe harbors in case?

A 32-year market vet shares 4 employment indicators that show the labor market is falling apart — and warns a recession will sink stocks by as much as 70%

In addition to the Sahm Rule, other labor market indicators show concerning trends as well.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Sytes]

Thoughts?

A recession indicator with a perfect track record has started flashing this week

Since 1976, every recession has been preceded by a disinversion of the yield curve, according to Interactive Brokers.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[Sytes]

4 years from retirement. TSP is not something I want to have docked in the safe G fund If the market is going to continue on an upward trend.
At the same time, it gives me a bit of concern considering the near future of losing money in the S&P etc without enough time to recoup from a decent recession-based dip.

 

[Rie Bread]

as goldmember said in time of recession “ I loooovvuh golllduh”

 

[Bonasababy]

Thoughts?

A recession indicator with a perfect track record has started flashing this week

Since 1976, every recession has been preceded by a disinversion of the yield curve, according to Interactive Brokers.

markets.businessinsider.com

What is it? 18 months seems like....since this warning was trotted out. Made a LOT of money in the market since then and sure am not alone. I do think being positioned in a more mixed position is wise for short timers, but more for the growing potential in bonds than fear of an equity slump.

Always someone pointing to the past as a prediction, better to have a plan you stick too with occasional re-balancing in the long run

 

[LopeHunter]

What is it? 18 months seems like....since this warning was trotted out. Made a LOT of money in the market since then and sure am not alone. I do think being positioned in a more mixed position is wise for short timers, but more for the growing potential in bonds than fear of an equity slump.

Always someone pointing to the past as a prediction, better to have a plan you stick too with occasional re-balancing in the long run

And, in 1966 a recession did not follow in the next few months. Odds are we will go into a recession next year. China is having some serious issues with their economy and they not only ship a lot of stuff to us as imports but they also buy a lot of our products and services. China will be buying less and less for a year or two. Our tech sector likely gets a haircut and a growing rotation is underway out of tech. Nothing is certain though as wars erupt, important people are no longer in control and sometimes an illness sweeps around the globe. Might result in a deep recession or a raging inflation or be just right for steady growth for several years.

Is difficult to get an edge on Wall Street though you can play when lots of individual investors who are casual investors mainly through company-sponsored 401Ks and IRAs panic if you sell your 401K or IRA holdings fast then wait for a fall of 5% or more before buy. Harder to make the juice worth the squeeze if selling appreciated holdings in a taxable account.

I tend to buy, reinvest dividends and hold. I am not doing anything different now though if my barber, the guy at the grocery check-out lane and my neighbor are all talking about being nervous about the Market then I start to watch for panic selling that spreads to more and more casual investors. Might be an opportunity.

 

[ismith]

And, in 1966 a recession did not follow in the next few months. Odds are we will go into a recession next year. China is having some serious issues with their economy and they not only ship a lot of stuff to us as imports but they also buy a lot of our products and services. China will be buying less and less for a year or two. Our tech sector likely gets a haircut and a growing rotation is underway out of tech. Nothing is certain though as wars erupt, important people are no longer in control and sometimes an illness sweeps around the globe. Might result in a deep recession or a raging inflation or be just right for steady growth for several years.

Is difficult to get an edge on Wall Street though you can play when lots of individual investors who are casual investors mainly through company-sponsored 401Ks and IRAs panic if you sell your 401K or IRA holdings fast then wait for a fall of 5% or more before buy. Harder to make the juice worth the squeeze if selling appreciated holdings in a taxable account.

I tend to buy, reinvest dividends and hold. I am not doing anything different now though if my barber, the guy at the grocery check-out lane and my neighbor are all talking about being nervous about the Market then I start to watch for panic selling that spreads to more and more casual investors. Might be an opportunity.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

 

[Bonasababy]

The likelihood of the US defaulting on its debt is extremely low. Even models continuing the current policies show it would have to grow greatly from its current level to get concerning.

Not to suggest current policy is sustainable it's not, but the folks most pushing a false imminent crisis would do well to focus more on the negative impact of tax cuts than spending, which are much more a factor than government spending. Which itself is much harder to tackle than people think, unless they are willing to make big cuts in social security and Medicare, which dominate obligations in the federal budget.

 

[ismith]

The likelihood of the US defaulting on its debt is extremely low. Even models continuing the current policies show it would have to grow greatly from its current level to get concerning.

Not to suggest current policy is sustainable it's not, but the folks most pushing a false imminent crisis would do well to focus more on the negative impact of tax cuts than spending, which are much more a factor than government spending. Which itself is much harder to tackle than people think, unless they are willing to make big cuts in social security and Medicare, which dominate obligations in the federal budget.

LOL, ok sure.

 

[Elky Welky]

LOL, ok sure.

Nice Hemingway pic, @ismith.

 

[Bonasababy]

And, in 1966 a recession did not follow in the next few months. Odds are we will go into a recession next year. China is having some serious issues with their economy and they not only ship a lot of stuff to us as imports but they also buy a lot of our products and services. China will be buying less and less for a year or two. Our tech sector likely gets a haircut and a growing rotation is underway out of tech. Nothing is certain though as wars erupt, important people are no longer in control and sometimes an illness sweeps around the globe. Might result in a deep recession or a raging inflation or be just right for steady growth for several years.

Is difficult to get an edge on Wall Street though you can play when lots of individual investors who are casual investors mainly through company-sponsored 401Ks and IRAs panic if you sell your 401K or IRA holdings fast then wait for a fall of 5% or more before buy. Harder to make the juice worth the squeeze if selling appreciated holdings in a taxable account.

I tend to buy, reinvest dividends and hold. I am not doing anything different now though if my barber, the guy at the grocery check-out lane and my neighbor are all talking about being nervous about the Market then I start to watch for panic selling that spreads to more and more casual investors. Might be an opportunity.

I see people making dire warnings endlessly. Even with the cheating and insider action that goes on playing wall street is easy.

Buy good investments--or better yet good long term growth mutual funds or index funds--and hold them. As you get closer to needing the money you might want to steer your mix towards a higher component of bonds.

The turtle wins that race every time over the person who frequently has money in cash on the relatively few good market days--or chases yesterdays top performer.

I don't see strong growth market soon but people have short memories--if bonds come back--they haven't done much in a long time--you can do well with a mixed portfolio. At retirement we are close to set if our portfolio returns just 4 percent and I expect we can do a bit better than that.

The biggest position by far in our retirement funds now are what they call balanced funds--usually try to maintain a 60/40 split of equities to bonds--in low fee funds from Fidelity, T Rowe and Vanguard. I don't need sky high returns at this point in life and know chasing them is a fools errand.

Good example of what I am talking about. I haven't much in small cap funds in years, they haven't compared well with other styles or index funds. That is projected to change and we moved some into them to the tune of maybe 10 percent of our mix. Lost money in them but slowly been creeping back, if market close today is where it's at now they will all be in the black poised for even more growth as the rate cut impacts get rolling soon.

Someone chasing immediate performance would have dumped them shortly after buying into them.

Not sure what to think about the rate cut or cuts. Many want a bigger one right away, but others claim that might actually have a reverse impact on the market--a 1/4 now followed by a quarter later this year or more would be a smoother path I think, curious to see what the fed does.

 

[Bonasababy]

LOL, ok sure.

If you are talking about the chance of Congress not getting it's act together and starting that kind of default, I might agree with you--except in an election year even they aren't that stupid--well maybe they are, but one thing you can count on, they want their side to win elections. One side won't go for it and if the other side tries it's handing the election to their opponent.

The Wharton School at Penn and numerous other prestigious economic/business experts all have implications leading to default on debt being extremely low and the debt would have to grow multiple times from where it is now before we get there.

We could move there a lot faster if some of the tax cuts aren't allowed to sunset and even faster if more tax cuts are planned by whoever takes over--if they aren't balanced by increased revenue--and I am not talking the long debunked "trickle down" revenue boost from tax cuts--to balance cuts out.

 

[BuzzH]

4 years from retirement. TSP is not something I want to have docked in the safe G fund If the market is going to continue on an upward trend.
At the same time, it gives me a bit of concern considering the near future of losing money in the S&P etc without enough time to recoup from a decent recession-based dip.

With a federal pension and SS both, why can't you ride out a year or two dip?

Have max carryover AL when you retire for lump sum to supplement pension and SS. Withdraw some from TSP if it's on the upswing to skim and further supplement, and let the rest ride the S&P.

Its one thing if all you have is the TSP/ 401 without a pension, whole different strategy if you have a pension.

 

[Rie Bread]

Double top coming?

 

[ismith]

With a federal pension and SS both, why can't you ride out a year or two dip?

Have max carryover AL when you retire for lump sum to supplement pension and SS. Withdraw some from TSP if it's on the upswing to skim and further supplement, and let the rest ride the S&P.

Its one thing if all you have is the TSP/ 401 without a pension, whole different strategy if you have a pension.

 

[ismith]

With a federal pension and SS both, why can't you ride out a year or two dip?

Have max carryover AL when you retire for lump sum to supplement pension and SS. Withdraw some from TSP if it's on the upswing to skim and further supplement, and let the rest ride the S&P.

Its one thing if all you have is the TSP/ 401 without a pension, whole different strategy if you have a pension.