Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Rie Bread]

Sell in may and go away, some say

 

[noharleyyet]

 

[SAJ-99]

View attachment 328416

You pay taxes?

 

[popeyoung12]

I will jump back in when the sp hits 4750. My guess is Oct. Until then I will take 5.2% in my mm acct. With dry powder.

 

[MTGomer]

SP 500 is up 59.3% without dividend reinvesting and not adjusted for inflation since this thread was started.

Ignore the noise and buy

S&P 500 Return Calculator, with Dividend Reinvestment

Estimate historical investment performance with the S&P 500 calculator. Show both inflation-adjusted and nominal returns, plus dividends.

dqydj.com

 

[popeyoung12]

still in the game but i have 19 etfs, and stocks i will jump on after the correction happens.

 

[Rie Bread]

if may rolls around and I have profits I take at minimum cost basis off the table…

 

[popeyoung12]

Ok, just bought 4 stocks for the Ai play. Kitty sleeps now till a correction.

 

[Rie Bread]

Nvda up 200% ytd

 

[antelopedundee]

Nvda up 200% ytd

UP UP AND AWAYYYYYYYYYYY

 

[Rie Bread]

UP UP AND AWAYYYYYYYYYYY

Hard to eject from this rocket!

 

[antelopedundee]

Hard to eject from this rocket!

Unless you're Cathie Woods.

 

[Sytes]

Sell in may and go away, some say

For over a year, economists and investors have been fearful that elevated interest rates and tight monetary policies could tip the U.S. economy into a recession. U.S. consumers seem healthy for now, but the Fed is reaching a critical point in its battle against inflation.

The next couple of months could determine whether the FOMC can navigate a so-called soft landing for the U.S. economy without tipping it into a recession.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverted since mid-2022, a historically strong recession indicator. The New York Fed’s recession probability model suggests there is still a 50% chance of a U.S. recession sometime within the next 12 months.

Forbes:

November 2024 Stock Market Forecast

The S&P 500 has resumed its march higher as strong first quarter earnings numbers have helped ease investor fears about inflation and a potentially delayed Federal Reserve pivot to interest rate cuts. In May, the S&P 500 gained 4.2% despite concerns over slowing economic growth, weakening

www.forbes.com

Also found this an interesting statistic from a CNN Business article:

“The total [of public companies] should have grown dramatically, not shrunk,” wrote Dimon in his annual shareholder letter earlier this spring.

The number of private companies in the US backed by private equity firms, meanwhile, has grown from 1,900 to 11,200 over the last two decades, according to JPMorgan data.

Dimon’s company, of course, makes a huge amount of money from taking companies public, so he’s not exactly an impartial observer. But Dimon said his concerns are broader than JPMorgan’s bottom line: If this trend continues, our understanding of the US economy could become hazier, he argued.

“This trend is serious,” warned Dimon on Monday. “We really need to consider: Is this the outcome we want?”

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/05/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

 

[Rie Bread]

Unless you're Cathie Woods.

Yeah chasing a bottom or the band wagon has proven great for her lol

 

[noharleyyet]

You pay taxes?

Wish I paid more...

 

[antelopedundee]

Wish I paid more...

Paying taxes means than you made money. It's possible to avoid/defer some taxes, but I doubt one can do it for all income/profit, esp. if you want to enjoy/spend it. Just my opinion man.

 

[SAJ-99]

Forbes:

November 2024 Stock Market Forecast

The S&P 500 has resumed its march higher as strong first quarter earnings numbers have helped ease investor fears about inflation and a potentially delayed Federal Reserve pivot to interest rate cuts. In May, the S&P 500 gained 4.2% despite concerns over slowing economic growth, weakening

www.forbes.com

Also found this an interesting statistic from a CNN Business article:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/05/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

Interesting article.It is a little hard to measure, but last time I did it about 5yrs ago there were pretty obvious new outflows out of stocks for almost a decade (yep, Boomers). That doesn't necessarily mean stocks go down, as is obvious with hindsight but was hard to explain at the time.

We are living in interesting times, which is good I guess. Bonds and oil are pricing in a significant slowdown, Equities at all-time highs (driven by a very few names) while central banks look to cut borrowing rates. Wall Street excels at selling stuff. On the institutional side it is/was private equity and now private debt. On the retail side it was Dot Com and now AI stocks and short-dated options. Buyer beware. Nvida CEO pushes the next gen chips before the current generation of chips even shipped. Great salesman, but if I was a customer I would a little annoyed. I invest with the view that good things happen to cheap assets, so energy stocks seem really attractive, but don't ask me how oil goes one direction and nat gas the other every day.

I agree with Dimon, this is a weird economy. Seems to be mostly based on getting peoples attention rather than providing useful products and services. It highlights the disconnect between the stock market and the economy.

 

[noharleyyet]

Good take SAJ...

 

[Rie Bread]

AI certainly is a useful product and service. The insatiable demand for these chips is a very good problem to have, especially in an ever advancing tech. Nvda is almost like Amazon of the fang era, the Tesla of pre pandemic. Hard to tell when that rocket is gonna reach orbit and just float around. I’m waiting for a stock split, might be a good indicator

 

[ismith]