ismith
Well-known member
Gun market is super soft right now.
Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
- Thread starter NEWHunter
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Southern Elk
Well-known member
What do you guys think about this?
www.foxbusiness.com
Economist Harry Dent predicts stock market crash worse than 2008 crisis: The ‘bubble of all bubbles’
While now predicting a market bottom in early to mid-2025, U.S. economist and author Harry Dent says it will be a "bigger crash than we got in 2008 to '09."
Bonasababy
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What do you guys think about this?
Economist Harry Dent predicts stock market crash worse than 2008 crisis: The ‘bubble of all bubbles’
While now predicting a market bottom in early to mid-2025, U.S. economist and author Harry Dent says it will be a "bigger crash than we got in 2008 to '09."
Gotta be extra carefull where you pull your info from in an election year!
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Dent is telling Fox viewers what they want to hear. He's aWhat do you guys think about this?
Economist Harry Dent predicts stock market crash worse than 2008 crisis: The ‘bubble of all bubbles’
While now predicting a market bottom in early to mid-2025, U.S. economist and author Harry Dent says it will be a "bigger crash than we got in 2008 to '09."
.The embedded video of Gundlach at least has some data to back up his view. I'm not saying he is right or wrong, just his analysis is a little more objective. This is the difference between a guy who writes a newsletter and a guy who invests other peoples money.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Absolutely! This "Nobel laureate" economist is the worst.
Remember, the U.S. doesn't have to pay off all its debt, and there's an easy way to fix it, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman says
The economics of easing U.S. debt concerns are relatively straight forward, so the main obstacle to stabilizing the debt is politics, he wrote.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
It's not hard to find someone exactly the opposite of Krugman. Friedman was one, may he RIP. The whole things is a clown show. Conservative think-tanks are a dime a dozen and will gladly pay an economist to tell them what they believe is correct. Billionaires hiring someone to tell them lower taxes will grow the economy is always popular. I have said they should hire speakers that tell them what they don't want to hear and then hash out the differences and see where they end up. Regardless, economists suck at forecasting anything.Absolutely! This "Nobel laureate" economist is the worst.
Remember, the U.S. doesn't have to pay off all its debt, and there's an easy way to fix it, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman says
The economics of easing U.S. debt concerns are relatively straight forward, so the main obstacle to stabilizing the debt is politics, he wrote.fortune.com
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Definitely a game, and the Bernie Sanders/Liz Warren retreads are somewhat popular too, at least on the East coast.
So what have you been buying lately with your monopoly money? Boardwalk or Baltic Avenue?
SAJ-99
Well-known member
More Baltic. I like the cheap stuff. EM, mostly China and India, and good ole O&G in US. Don't get too excited though, I have some solar stocks too. They are in my basket of things that should pop on first Fed rate cut.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Looking like a Fed rate cut is just a wishful election year prediction by the Ivy League economist class.
Bonasababy
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Moving all my bond and safer less risk money into CD's that I am allowed. Bought one at 5.45% this morning! Money markets are actually hanging in with inflation but CD's are the best buy now IMO.
Equities almost all in very low cost high morningstar rated funds with the exception of few in the core in the retirement plans. I play with a small portion of our money in something more risky, for most of the last two years FSELX has been doing pretty well for us.
Individual stocks are for experts willing to risk a lot more than I am.
Bonasababy
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Firewall protected.Absolutely! This "Nobel laureate" economist is the worst.
Remember, the U.S. doesn't have to pay off all its debt, and there's an easy way to fix it, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman says
The economics of easing U.S. debt concerns are relatively straight forward, so the main obstacle to stabilizing the debt is politics, he wrote.
I'd guess he suggests that returning to taxation rates we used to have--say in the Reagan days--would be a good first step!
In my experience that sounds good to a lot of people. Even those who are fortunate to make a lot more money than me don't seem to know that means raising their taxes.
Kinda basic checkbook balancing to a point--can't focus on just one side of the ledger to fix a shortfall!
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Raise taxes or reduce spending by 2.1% of GDP will fix the problem according to the Center for American Progress.
Meanwhile Trump wants to eliminate taxes on tips,
and Biden wants to wave student loan repayments.
Student loan update: Federal judge hands Joe Biden's plan a legal win
After 11 states filed a lawsuit against Biden's student loan debt forgiveness plan, a judge ruled that only three states can proceed with their case.
www.newsweek.com
Both giveaways will lead us closer to insolvency.
Big question is which strategy will buy more votes?
Bonasababy
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OK thought I would dive in. US GDP in 23 was 27.36 trillion according to the governments Bureau of Economic Analysis.Raise taxes or reduce spending by 2.1% of GDP will fix the problem according to the Center for American Progress.
Meanwhile Trump wants to eliminate taxes on tips,
and Biden wants to wave student loan repayments.
Student loan update: Federal judge hands Joe Biden's plan a legal win
After 11 states filed a lawsuit against Biden's student loan debt forgiveness plan, a judge ruled that only three states can proceed with their case.
Both giveaways will lead us closer to insolvency.
Big question is which strategy will buy more votes?
The congressional budget office said our expenditures in 23 were 6.1 trillion. Of that, 3.8 trillion was spent on things that can't be cut without major action, mostly social security and medicare benefits. 1.7 Trillion was what they called "discretionary" spending that could be more simply cut.
Now back to the Center for American Progress (FAR from a non-partisan group by the way).
2.1 percent of GDP is around 574 billion. Which in turn is about a third of ALL government spending on things other than social security, medicare etc.
That amount of cutting is just not reasonable or even feasible, UNLESS you substantially cut social security and medicare benefits too. Pick most any spending program some might call wastefull/not needed--you could cut most all of them and still not make much of a dent.
On the other hand, the Brookings Insitute--about as centrist as a think tank can get--said if we don't repeal the large 2017 tax cuts we will add another 3,8 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, and take the federal debt--which is at 100 percent of the GDP now--to 211 percent in 30 years.
It's a numbers game. Social Security and Medicare represent such a huge portion of our expenditures that its impossible to cut our way to reversing the debt--but on the other hand, restoring former tax rates would have a much bigger impact.
LopeHunter
Well-known member
OK thought I would dive in. US GDP in 23 was 27.36 trillion according to the governments Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The congressional budget office said our expenditures in 23 were 6.1 trillion. Of that, 3.8 trillion was spent on things that can't be cut without major action, mostly social security and medicare benefits. 1.7 Trillion was what they called "discretionary" spending that could be more simply cut.
Now back to the Center for American Progress (FAR from a non-partisan group by the way).
2.1 percent of GDP is around 574 billion. Which in turn is about a third of ALL government spending on things other than social security, medicare etc.
That amount of cutting is just not reasonable or even feasible, UNLESS you substantially cut social security and medicare benefits too. Pick most any spending program some might call wastefull/not needed--you could cut most all of them and still not make much of a dent.
On the other hand, the Brookings Insitute--about as centrist as a think tank can get--said if we don't repeal the large 2017 tax cuts we will add another 3,8 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, and take the federal debt--which is at 100 percent of the GDP now--to 211 percent in 30 years.
It's a numbers game. Social Security and Medicare represent such a huge portion of our expenditures that its impossible to cut our way to reversing the debt--but on the other hand, restoring former tax rates would have a much bigger impact.
This is the painful truth and China knows we lack the cojones to tighten our belts as raise taxes so will end up doing neither and the train wreck continues until we are Argentina with runaway inflation and no way to cover old debt except to print more money thus devaluing that debt PLUS devalues all those fixed dollar pensions and annuities which do not inflation-adjust.
China will just wait until we can no longer fund foreign wars and new technology-based offensive weapons. This is what America did to the Soviet Union under Ronnie.
China can build 30x the volume of ships as we can now. That is similar to WWII when we had a similar advantage in ship-building over Japan and we just wore down the Japanese fleet carrier by carrier and transport by transport.
China has infrastructure issues and population issues yet barring a collapse of the one-party autocratic system, China merely needs to wait another 50 years. They have a long history so 50 years is not very long to them.
ismith
Well-known member
Are there no socialist think tanks or would you rather not mention them?
Yes. Exactly. If has a 3 or 5 handle, it sure as hell will matter.
So what is option expiration telling you this month?
Socialists aren’t very good with money
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