Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[SAJ-99]

Well yeah, and I don’t even get compensation for giving out this advice. We’ll just wait until mid-May and revisit to see how far I missed the mark.

Funny thing is I'm showing zero open interest in Tesla $275 May puts, so not even you are actually making the bet. Basically it supports my view that neither investors nor traders generally don't make these type of bets. There are better ways to structure them.

 

[Flatrock]

Well yeah, and I don’t even get compensation for giving out this advice. We’ll just wait until mid-May and revisit to see how far I missed the mark.

Haha. I have zero opinion on your Tesla trade. It was just a very unexpected turn after your "90 RSI" comment.

 

[Flatrock]

I have found RSI less useful on single stocks, particularly those with a market story built around them (AMZN, TSLA, Etc). The RSI on those can stay high for a while. S&P overbought on daily and weekly basis now, which is a very strong indicator of needing a correction. Just keep in mind it doesn’t take a big sell off to bring RSI down. Just a few % or one bad week and that is it. Next week is the window for this due to option expiration. Lots of data as well. Just warn it hard to fight this trend though.

Mostly agree but the market can stay overbought for a loooooooooooooooooooong time. I've damn near always done better if I just sit on my hands in times like these instead of trying to trade around it. 2 months sideways to down a few percent would be great right now.

 

[Redraider7]

Buy bitcoin everyone. Crypto in general will be much higher in the short to medium term than it is today

 

[Flatrock]

Buy bitcoin everyone. Crypto in general will be much higher in the short to medium term than it is today

@BigHornRam where you at?

 

[howl]

I just looked at my records. In single stock buying I have some amazing winners, but they are less than half. Which is to say my gambling is a net loss and may as well be blackjack. Glad it's all small time and probably worth the constant reminder that gambling is just for entertainment. Watching something go up 200% might lead to self delusion if one did not also get to watch something drop 70% and stay there. (I may have finally learned that value is irrelevant in REITs, but probably not.)

My mutual funds and bonds are doing well with only gains. I returned to monthly index buying last fall and have been pleased.Boring is alright.

 

[BigHornRam]

@BigHornRam where you at?

Standing as far away from the pending train wreck as humanly possible.

 

[SAJ-99]

Mostly agree but the market can stay overbought for a loooooooooooooooooooong time. I've damn near always done better if I just sit on my hands in times like these instead of trying to trade around it. 2 months sideways to down a few percent would be great right now.

Today you see why it can't stay overbought for a long time. The RSI math doesn't work. It just doesn't take much to knock it back down. Little over -1.2% and the weekly and daily both under 70 now.

You also see how the narrative follow...today is CPI and rates. Somehow stocks didn't care as the 10yr yield went from 3.85% on Feb 1 to 4.15% yesterday, but you get actual data and suddenly media uses it to build a case around why the market is expensive. It's kind of funny.

 

[Tradewind]

@Tradewind
View attachment 315432

That is one way to look at it

 

[Flatrock]

Standing as far away from the pending train wreck as humanly possible.

Lol. Love it.

But Saylor says it's still a loooooooong way from his million dollar target!

 

[antelopedundee]

Market not in a spot I invest. Rising wedges, terrible breadth etc etc. But that's just my system. I own a few names like $SMCI $NVDA and the ETF $SMH #SOXL in trading accounts, but I have been cutting heaps. My indicators are stretched to upside. As for investing, I dont need single stock risk and will ETF invest again on next $SPY --20%. I also buy on weekly RSI oversold, below weekly Keltners (if down more than 20%). I buy off 200W SMA. I'll buy a 10 30W SMA cross to upside as a last add. I've traded for a long time and still would never put a single name in my retirement port. I don't want to feel emotional at earnings calls, balance sheets, court cases, gov intervention, no thanks, I know I can't. JUST MY SYSTEM, there's tons of opinions and many of them lose money. Biggest mistake folks make is trading their investments, gotta stick to rules based system. Good Luck!!

The way it's going SMCI could top $1000/share by the end of February. Up over $900 in after hours today. It closed around $285 on 01/02/2024.

 

[SAJ-99]

The way it's going SMCI could top $1000/share by the end of February the week. Up over $900 in after hours today. It closed around $285 on 01/02/2024.

Sorry, had to fix it. LOL.

Hardest things in trading/investing…
1) stop trying to convince yourself you are right and the market is wrong on a loser
2) knowing when to sell a winner

 

[antelopedundee]

Sorry, had to fix it. LOL.

Hardest things in trading/investing…
1) stop trying to convince yourself you are right and the market is wrong on a loser
2) knowing when to sell a winner

I was going to put end of week, but decided to go easy. You are so so right on #2. Everybody hates leaving money on the table, but the first rule of investing is that you can't go wrong by taking a profit. I sold some META late last year and later I was pissed at myself for doing so. I bought back in and now I'm farther ahead than I was the first time.

 

[npaden]

I may have told this story before, maybe on this thread but since we are on the topic of knowing when to sell a winner I’ll tell it anyway.

Sometime in 2012 or 2013 I bought 2,000 shares of DXCM, a company that at the time was pioneering a glucose monitoring device. Working on FDA approvals and stuff like that. I paid $9 a share. Just over $18,000 invested but I felt like it was a very promising stock at the time.

Some ups and downs and then it takes off. I sell half of it at $45 a share and then the other half at $60 or something like that in 2015. I was so proud of myself for actually selling and taking a profit. We had a pool built that summer and I joked that the pool was free, bought and paid for by DXCM.

The stock even dropped back down after I sold and I felt really smart.

Fast forward to 2021 and it was trading at over $600 a share. So now if I think it through, instead of getting a free pool in 2015, if I had held those 2,000 shares until 2021 they would have been worth $1.2 million. So did I get a free pool or did the pool cost me $1.2 million?

The stock has split since then and gone up and down a bit. I actually bought back in a bit in 2020 and still have it now. It’s down a bit from the peak but I’ve got a decent unrealized gain in it now but nothing like if I had held onto those 2,000 shares. It was a 1 to 4 split so that would be 8,000 shares today.

Woulda coulda shoulda….

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

I may have told this story before, maybe on this thread but since we are on the topic of knowing when to sell a winner I’ll tell it anyway.

Sometime in 2012 or 2013 I bought 2,000 shares of DXCM, a company that at the time was pioneering a glucose monitoring device. Working on FDA approvals and stuff like that. I paid $9 a share. Just over $18,000 invested but I felt like it was a very promising stock at the time.

Some ups and downs and then it takes off. I sell half of it at $45 a share and then the other half at $60 or something like that in 2015. I was so proud of myself for actually selling and taking a profit. We had a pool built that summer and I joked that the pool was free, bought and paid for by DXCM.

The stock even dropped back down after I sold and I felt really smart.

Fast forward to 2021 and it was trading at over $600 a share. So now if I think it through, instead of getting a free pool in 2015, if I had held those 2,000 shares until 2021 they would have been worth $1.2 million. So did I get a free pool or did the pool cost me $1.2 million?

The stock has split since then and gone up and down a bit. I actually bought back in a bit in 2020 and still have it now. It’s down a bit from the peak but I’ve got a decent unrealized gain in it now but nothing like if I had held onto those 2,000 shares. It was a 1 to 4 split so that would be 8,000 shares today.

Woulda coulda shoulda….

You’re a winner and here’s why: You put $18k down on a company that had otherwise been largely in the pennys since 2005. Then you held onto this significant gamble to sell half at 500% and half at 667%. That would have been really reckless for me, but maybe $18k is fun money to you. Instead of financing a pool and paying some thousands extra in interest you paid in cash like a boss.
We all can play the shouldawoulacoulda. But there’s no legal way to predict the market. You have a pool fair and square and that’s worth more than infinite unrealized gains.

 

[ignorethefringes]

Sorry, had to fix it. LOL.

Hardest things in trading/investing…
1) stop trying to convince yourself you are right and the market is wrong on a loser
2) knowing when to sell a winner

I bought some cheap puts for May (after earnings) on SMCI because I'm still a little disappointed on missing out lol. Funny thing, the strike price is still higher than what I sold it at just a few weeks ago. . .

 

[SAJ-99]

Really wanted to short Yeti yesterday after it ran up into earnings and am kicking myself that I didn't. Earnings report was exactly what I expected given the environment. 24 Guidance was lowered and growth will slow. Now start to look for similar names- DKS maybe?

Note that Yeti said they purchased Mystery Ranch and Butter Pat for a total of $48m. Seem to have plenty of cash on hand, so shouldn't have to tap debt market.

 

[npaden]

You’re a winner and here’s why: You put $18k down on a company that had otherwise been largely in the pennys since 2005. Then you held onto this significant gamble to sell half at 500% and half at 667%. That would have been really reckless for me, but maybe $18k is fun money to you. Instead of financing a pool and paying some thousands extra in interest you paid in cash like a boss.
We all can play the shouldawoulacoulda. But there’s no legal way to predict the market. You have a pool fair and square and that’s worth more than infinite unrealized gains.

Yeah, I don't beat myself up for it too badly.

I think this also brings into play about the only way I think you can beat the S&P 500. Trading in stocks that you actually know a little bit about. At the time I had a friend with adult onset diabetes and he was using one of their first generation monitoring devices. He raved about it and said it was going to change things for the positive in a big way. Easy to see that our population is nearing a crisis in diabetes so that part is just going to get bigger and bigger. That's what helped me make a decent sized play on the stock.

I know there are plenty of stories of companies making good products that don't do well with their stock valuation, but I think if they make good products you most likely aren't going to get killed at least.

I've had a couple huge hits as well. XSNX hurt me for a couple thousand but it was when a couple thousand meant more to me than now and more recently GOPH (now GTCH - we refer to it as Gotcha) got me for a pretty good chunk after I tried to catch the infamous falling knife that ended up nearly cutting off my toes!

I enjoy watching and playing but in all reality it is tough to beat the indexes.

 

[antelopedundee]

I bought some cheap puts for May (after earnings) on SMCI because I'm still a little disappointed on missing out lol. Funny thing, the strike price is still higher than what I sold it at just a few weeks ago. . .

I'll go out on a limb and predict that SMCI will hit $1300 by the end of April. Could top $1000 today.

 

[ignorethefringes]

I'll go out on a limb and predict that SMCI will hit $1300 by the end of April. Could top $1000 today.

You may very well be right. This is purely a bitterness bet, and I'm 100% willing to lose my $400 out of spite lol.