Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[antelopedundee]

You may very well be right. This is purely a bitterness bet, and I'm 100% willing to lose my $400 out of spite lol.

I was just dartboarding it.

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

Yeah, I don't beat myself up for it too badly.

I think this also brings into play about the only way I think you can beat the S&P 500. Trading in stocks that you actually know a little bit about. At the time I had a friend with adult onset diabetes and he was using one of their first generation monitoring devices. He raved about it and said it was going to change things for the positive in a big way. Easy to see that our population is nearing a crisis in diabetes so that part is just going to get bigger and bigger. That's what helped me make a decent sized play on the stock.

I know there are plenty of stories of companies making good products that don't do well with their stock valuation, but I think if they make good products you most likely aren't going to get killed at least.

I've had a couple huge hits as well. XSNX hurt me for a couple thousand but it was when a couple thousand meant more to me than now and more recently GOPH (now GTCH - we refer to it as Gotcha) got me for a pretty good chunk after I tried to catch the infamous falling knife that ended up nearly cutting off my toes!

I enjoy watching and playing but in all reality it is tough to beat the indexes.

You know what, hearing your buddy worked out! I had a friend once back must’ve been 2009. He was raving about this bitcoin, going to be digital money. Told me I could buy like a billion bitcoin for the price of a pizza. Freakin nerds, so dumb, amiright? Oh yeah, I listen better nowadays.

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

I was just dartboarding it.

I wonder if anyone dartboarded some way OTM call last year when it was in the $90s.

 

[antelopedundee]

Supposedly some B of A financial wizard upgraded the stock to a $1040 buy price. It could hit that in after hours. Was at $1032.

 

[Irrelevant]

I may have told this story before, maybe on this thread but since we are on the topic of knowing when to sell a winner I’ll tell it anyway.

Sometime in 2012 or 2013 I bought 2,000 shares of DXCM, a company that at the time was pioneering a glucose monitoring device. Working on FDA approvals and stuff like that. I paid $9 a share. Just over $18,000 invested but I felt like it was a very promising stock at the time.

Some ups and downs and then it takes off. I sell half of it at $45 a share and then the other half at $60 or something like that in 2015. I was so proud of myself for actually selling and taking a profit. We had a pool built that summer and I joked that the pool was free, bought and paid for by DXCM.

The stock even dropped back down after I sold and I felt really smart.

Fast forward to 2021 and it was trading at over $600 a share. So now if I think it through, instead of getting a free pool in 2015, if I had held those 2,000 shares until 2021 they would have been worth $1.2 million. So did I get a free pool or did the pool cost me $1.2 million?

The stock has split since then and gone up and down a bit. I actually bought back in a bit in 2020 and still have it now. It’s down a bit from the peak but I’ve got a decent unrealized gain in it now but nothing like if I had held onto those 2,000 shares. It was a 1 to 4 split so that would be 8,000 shares today.

Woulda coulda shoulda….

Let me tell you how that story plays out for me.

Some guy I don't know mentions that he made a killing on a stock I've never heard of before. I'm jealous. Years later I'm scrolling through the daily highest movers and see this company and the triggers a memory. I spend all of 20 seconds review their trend, another 2 min scrolling through some news headlines and buy it. It then drops like a dead hooker off a bridge and I panic and sell at a 50% loss. Rinse and repeat.

follow me for more DIY investing tips.

 

[Flatrock]

Anybody have Nvidia? Could be a fireworks show after next Wednesday when they report. Either up or down. That's the only stock we own. Everything else is in ETFs. Thinking of selling a call on it before earnings but I'm still a believer in it 3-5 years out. Think I'll just hold it as is and if it drops $100-200, I might buy a little more.

 

[antelopedundee]

I don't understand the mentality of traders, investors or machines that bid up a stock one day and crap all over it the next. Can't be that much that happens overnight, but sometimes I wonder if the market is reacting to some news that Powell got his toto caught in his zipper.

 

[howl]

Touting stocks online and making profits on micro-swings, not to mention fees, is SOP for those big enough to influence. Most people should not directly invest in any stock they read about online. And by invest I mean gamble.

 

[Flatrock]

I don't understand the mentality of traders, investors or machines that bid up a stock one day and crap all over it the next. Can't be that much that happens overnight, but sometimes I wonder if the market is reacting to some news that Powell got his toto caught in his zipper.

It's estimated that 60-70%+ of the trading each day is algorithmic. And that scenario with Powell is probably is written into the algos. Haha.

 

[SAJ-99]

It's estimated that 60-70%+ of the trading each day is algorithmic. And that scenario with Powell is probably is written into the algos. Haha.

JPow and the other voting members are absolutely written into the algos. I'm sure the language AI models get better at reading them by the day. But honestly, that isn't want is driving the trading. It is delta hedging from market makers. We now even have daily options that have to be delta hedged for 6hours each day (the first 30min is just trying to let the gamblers get their game on). Today is monthly options expiration so it can swing wildly with little logic or reason.

Anybody have Nvidia? Could be a fireworks show after next Wednesday when they report. Either up or down. That's the only stock we own. Everything else is in ETFs. Thinking of selling a call on it before earnings but I'm still a believer in it 3-5 years out. Think I'll just hold it as is and if it drops $100-200, I might buy a little more.

I am nervous going into next week. This year has been all about AI. If NVDA doesn't give some positive news the whole thing could fall apart quickly. So far in 2024, the returns are in stocks that look to benefit from AI Meta +33%, NVDA +49%, MSFT +8%, while those that are viewed to be behind are dead money GOOG +1%, AAPL -5%.

SMCI is showing an outside day = Bad news.

SoundHound AI doubled this week on being listed in NVDA holdings. I don't like that whole ecosystem is tied to one name. This happened a lot in the DotCom bubble with server and storage. Cisco ended up having investments in its own customers. Not a very stable structure.

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

I don't understand the mentality of traders, investors or machines that bid up a stock one day and crap all over it the next. Can't be that much that happens overnight, but sometimes I wonder if the market is reacting to some news that Powell got his toto caught in his zipper.

That’s why I’m attuned to RSI now as it’s an indicator more often than not. Of course there’s also EPS, PE and ER. Powell is a convenient punching bag on which we take out our frustration.

 

[howl]

Who's gambling on RGTI? It's on a tear on a Friday.

 

[antelopedundee]

That’s why I’m attuned to RSI now as it’s an indicator more often than not. Of course there’s also EPS, PE and ER. Powell is a convenient punching bag on which we take out our frustration.

Oh, I'm not blaming Powell. It's just a comment about how some sort of no news moves the market. I said the same about Mr. Greenjeans. Why does META go up $12 one day and pull back by $12 the next day when there is no apparent negative news about META?

 

[SAJ-99]

Oh, I'm not blaming Powell. It's just a comment about how some sort of no news moves the market. I said the same about Mr. Greenjeans. Why does META go up $12 one day and pull back by $12 the next day when there is no apparent negative news about META?

Maybe it didn't deserve that $12 to start with?

 

[Flatrock]

JPow and the other voting members are absolutely written into the algos.

Well yes, obviously. I was talking about antelopedundee's joke that markets react to Powell's wiener getting stuck in his zipper.

I am nervous going into next week. This year has been all about AI. If NVDA doesn't give some positive news the whole thing could fall apart quickly.

I agree. I think a rough week for AI would be a good thing.

I'm sure Nvidia will have a huge beat and raise but even that might not be enough to prevent it going down $50+. I'm not too nervous about it although my lack of nervousness also makes me nervous. Haha. If it pulls back 10% next Thursday and Friday, I'll be fine with that. I'd be a lot more nervous holding the other AI names.

 

[LousyResident]

I bought some cheap puts for May (after earnings) on SMCI because I'm still a little disappointed on missing out lol. Funny thing, the strike price is still higher than what I sold it at just a few weeks ago. . .

Not hating this decision right now lol.

 

[SAJ-99]

I agree. I think a rough week for AI would be a good thing.

I'm sure Nvidia will have a huge beat and raise but even that might not be enough to prevent it going down $50+. I'm not too nervous about it although my lack of nervousness also makes me nervous. Haha. If it pulls back 10% next Thursday and Friday, I'll be fine with that. I'd be a lot more nervous holding the other AI names.

Today just increased my anxiety about next week. SMCI lost 20% on a single analyst "Hold" report and showed zero ability to find a bid all day. S&P fell on the inflation news, fought back to be positive only to stall and fall and finish near lows for the day. No significant news or data next week and I see no Fed speakers on calendar. The market will be left to its own devices.

 

[antelopedundee]

Maybe it didn't deserve that $12 to start with?

Maybe or maybe not, but that doesn't seem like a reason to beat it down.

 

[SAJ-99]

Maybe or maybe not, but that doesn't seem like a reason to beat it down.

You might be missing the point a little. What was the reason it got that $12 to begin with? A lot of the time people that were short into an event and on the wrong side end up covering. I.e. Get out fast. The imbalance bids up the stock and benefits those long the stock. Eventually the buyers get exhausted and there is no one behind to replace them. Those that are long the stock and need to keep it at a reasonable percentage of the total portfolio start to trim. Sellers with no buyers = decline. It was only a couple of %, so I'm not sure "beat it down" is a good way to describe it. Maybe this helps, I wouldn't pay 30X TTM for META with your money. LOL, ok, maybe I would with your money, but certainly not mine.

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]