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Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

I am thinking that what might do this rally in is starting sports up again. It will give some of the "new" traders something else to bet on.

That's chump change compared to the financial institutions using $ to initiate the wave Robinhood-ers jump on to ride.

Interesting Cramer perspective on the topic of big $ players and, "Robinhood-ers".

Cramer's not the know all of market activity though I'd say he's pretty decent @ keeping his 'folio rolling in green pastures. 🙂
 
Interesting Cramer perspective on the topic of big $ players and, "Robinhood-ers".

Cramer's not the know all of market activity though I'd say he's pretty decent @ keeping his 'folio rolling in green pastures. 🙂


I believe he is on to something there. I have been seeing the same type of activity, generally speaking, and have been using it to my advantage in options (usually). The majority of all of my sells have been either right after opening or right before closing, with most of my buys being during the middle of the day.
 
Interesting Cramer perspective on the topic of big $ players and, "Robinhood-ers".

Cramer's not the know all of market activity though I'd say he's pretty decent @ keeping his 'folio rolling in green pastures. 🙂
Im not sure what Cramer is arguing (nothing new there). Is he complaining about premarket activity mispricing the stock or complaining about "Market pros" bidding up stocks to lure in "dumb money"/ Robinhooders? It seems he might be saying the big money is trying to build momentum in a stock and that momentum is luring in Robinhooders. He said he didn't think it was Robinhooders bidding up the prices, but it doesn't matter. Just because someone else bids up the prices and Robinhooders buy it, they are still part of the mispricing problem. Who goes first doesn't really matter. Cramer still sees markets as he traded them in the late 1990's. It's a different market now. My question to him is simply "who is they?" because it is easy to place blame on a mystery group without naming them. No bank trading desk is using bank capital to trade HTZ. No large institutional buyer is going to play in the time frame of hours or days. Maybe a hedge fund would, but I can only think of a few, like Citadel, that might have the capital to do this. But that is risky because the Citadel Securities is a market maker and clearing broker for Robinhood trades, so the Citadel hedge fund arm should be reluctant to try the pump-and-dump Cramer described because of the scrutiny it might get from regulators given that it is illegal. Hard to figure out because it is complicated and that is why Cramer says "they". I have seen a lot of opinions accompanied by bad analysis trying to say these small traders have nothing to do with it, but I know who is going to take pain when it goes bad.

The chart below is hard to deny. Take a look at the site and compare RH activity to prices for other stocks.
https://robintrack.net/symbol/HTZ
 
Im not sure what Cramer is arguing (nothing new there). Is he complaining about premarket activity mispricing the stock or complaining about "Market pros" bidding up stocks to lure in "dumb money"/ Robinhooders? It seems he might be saying the big money is trying to build momentum in a stock and that momentum is luring in Robinhooders. He said he didn't think it was Robinhooders bidding up the prices, but it doesn't matter. Just because someone else bids up the prices and Robinhooders buy it, they are still part of the mispricing problem. Who goes first doesn't really matter. Cramer still sees markets as he traded them in the late 1990's. It's a different market now. My question to him is simply "who is they?" because it is easy to place blame on a mystery group without naming them. No bank trading desk is using bank capital to trade HTZ. No large institutional buyer is going to play in the time frame of hours or days. Maybe a hedge fund would, but I can only think of a few, like Citadel, that might have the capital to do this. But that is risky because the Citadel Securities is a market maker and clearing broker for Robinhood trades, so the Citadel hedge fund arm should be reluctant to try the pump-and-dump Cramer described because of the scrutiny it might get from regulators given that it is illegal. Hard to figure out because it is complicated and that is why Cramer says "they". I have seen a lot of opinions accompanied by bad analysis trying to say these small traders have nothing to do with it, but I know who is going to take pain when it goes bad.

The chart below is hard to deny. Take a look at the site and compare RH activity to prices for other stocks.
https://robintrack.net/symbol/HTZ

Interesting. I just looked at VTI and BND at that link which are a couple of the larger ETFs so are less susceptible to pump and dump. VTI and BND each also show an increased number of holders since mid-March though the growth rate for holders of HTZ at Robinhood is many times greater.

Is quite possible newbie investors are more at risk for a significant decline in value of their holding than realize. I wonder if any of the vocal “buy this stock now as only green so up up up” social influencers will face charges if a bunch of newbies lose their rears so create a hashtag like #robbed2020.
 
Interesting. I just looked at VTI and BND at that link which are a couple of the larger ETFs so are less susceptible to pump and dump. VTI and BND each also show an increased number of holders since mid-March though the growth rate for holders of HTZ at Robinhood is many times greater.

Is quite possible newbie investors are more at risk for a significant decline in value of their holding than realize. I wonder if any of the vocal “buy this stock now as only green so up up up” social influencers will face charges if a bunch of newbies lose their rears so create a hashtag like #robbed2020.
VTI and BND are both broad asset class holdings. Keep in mind HTZ stock is in bankruptcy. I would think those buyers are two totally different investors, so we shouldn’t assume all RH investors are the same. I just think the preconception that big money drives the price might be sometimes correct,but certainly not always.
Hard to say who the influencers are. Dave Portnoy is getting a lot of press, but he’s as much of a side-show clown as Cramer was 15yrs ago. People are definitely going to lose money on some of these bets. So maybe we find out????
 
Bought USO at $17 at the dip about a month ago... it's just under $27 now and I'm watching for a jump as the economy gets going again. My exit is either $40 on the upside or $25 on the down.
 
Here's the usual movers and shakers for this earnings week... How C-19, etc plays into it... Seems there are some good prospects for strangles... Or Babe Ruth swing and maybe connect... - let her ride on through earnings and reap your demise or rewards!
Last line I couldn't fit in my screen capture. Tickets are present.
Check to find the day and time for earnings announcement.


Screenshot_20200614-222522.png
 
Here's the usual movers and shakers for this earnings week... How C-19, etc plays into it... Seems there are some good prospects for strangles... Or Babe Ruth swing and maybe connect... - let her ride on through earnings and reap your demise or rewards!
Last line I couldn't fit in my screen capture. Tickets are present.
Check to find the day and time for earnings announcement.


View attachment 143626
Even after the earnings announcement the implied vol on these options is like 75%. The bid/ask spread is crazy wide. I don't think I could handle having to eat the option on a strangle. You are a special man if you can make money on the names announcing today. Some of the bigger names interest me, like LEN, JBL and ORCL. I covered a bunch of covered calls this morning and put some more on this afternoon. But these are in blue chip names with deep market liquidity.
 
Since my wife works at the largest hospital, in the largest city in the state with half the covid cases for the state I get a little inside info on case load of the ICU. Wisconsin opened up more than 3 weeks ago and the case count has not gone up, in fact has gone down. So beware of the news trying to spook the market and kill the economy before election time. If I see a case count rise, I will definitly sell sell sell. But for now I am holding to see if any more recovery from last weeks correction happens. Those Robinhood day traders will get bored again... I can feel it!
 
Futures are up over 900 points on the Dow right now.... They ain't scared
 
Futures are up over 900 points on the Dow right now.... They ain't scared
The stars are really aligned today.. Retail sales skyrocketed in May, Covid clinical trial treatment data out on Dexamethasone, and Trump is considering another 1T stimulus package. Might get us back up to last week's highs.
 
Random thoughts.
Lots of good news and not much bad leads to a nice pop. The Fed news yesterday wasn't new, just an announcement that they will start doing what they said they were going to do - but supportive in propping up financial asset prices. The Fed put is clearly alive and well. Retail sales is ok but April was probably the worst economic month in the history of the US. A pop in May was expected and no one could really predict what the pop would look like or even what future economic numbers in May and June might show. Any pop solely from retail sales would be a sellable rally. The market is pricing in a V recovery more akin to a vaccine than a treatment. The Fed keeps saying some sobering things about getting back to "normal", like talking about 2023 for unemployment to get sub-5%. Even if the economy went to 95% of what it was, that is still a serious recession. Only getting to 90% is a depression. Lots of uncertainty in the outlook and probably more economic damage to come.

The Covid treatment news might be more supportive, but the market has been fooled before by these studies. It might take some time for that to settle in. There are clearly Covid spikes in some regions and hospitals in a few areas are getting stretched, and little is being done to limit the spread by reducing economic activity again. Politicians don't seem to have the stomach to shut down again and I don't think the general population does either. It is a bad combination if you are an epidemiologist. A treatment to limit deaths would be positive but the economic question is more how does it impact consumer behaviors going forward.

The market is expensive, even looking at 2021 earnings estimates. I wouldn't worry too much now because it will get a lot more expensive and there is a lot of money that needs to find a home. I will start worrying when people start trying to justify PE multiples that approach the Dot Com bubble that was north of 30x on the S&P.
 
We took a good hard look at buying a unique piece of property, already zoned for a quad plex. Price to build four 1100 sf units came in higher than expected....with property, just over $200/sf.

Cash flow is just break even.

We passed.

I expected a decrease in property prices as jobs in this small CO town have disappeared and more shutting down in the next few months.

Housing market is instead, accelerating. ???
 
We took a good hard look at buying a unique piece of property, already zoned for a quad plex. Price to build four 1100 sf units came in higher than expected....with property, just over $200/sf.

Cash flow is just break even.

We passed.

I expected a decrease in property prices as jobs in this small CO town have disappeared and more shutting down in the next few months.

Housing market is instead, accelerating. ???

Neighbor across from me just sold his place for $10K above asking price, 48 hours after listing. He had 18+ showings. He has a similar place as mine and sold his for over double what I paid in 2009 as a short sale at the bottom of the market.
 
We took a good hard look at buying a unique piece of property, already zoned for a quad plex. Price to build four 1100 sf units came in higher than expected....with property, just over $200/sf.

Cash flow is just break even.

We passed.

I expected a decrease in property prices as jobs in this small CO town have disappeared and more shutting down in the next few months.

Housing market is instead, accelerating. ???
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e sold our house just before covid hit and I was thinking I might find a deal. Just like you said the housing market seems to be on fire we cant find anything and if we do ita multiple offers on day on.
 
We took a good hard look at buying a unique piece of property, already zoned for a quad plex. Price to build four 1100 sf units came in higher than expected....with property, just over $200/sf.

Cash flow is just break even.

We passed.

I expected a decrease in property prices as jobs in this small CO town have disappeared and more shutting down in the next few months.

Housing market is instead, accelerating. ???
Passing isn’t a bad idea, but breakeven sounds about right on new construction of that size. In Wisconsin, those smaller rental properties of 1-4 units, even up up to 8 units, usually run around break even if they are in a decent area and are in good shape. There’s a lot more money and better financing chasing the 1-4s than the bigger complexes. How much were you looking at putting down? 25%?
 

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