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Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

schmalts said:
What worries me is if the economy tanks on top of the rate hikes. Recession will kill the market with a double whammy
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Yeah. It could be really ugly. So much excess built up in the system, will inflation start to plateau? That’s the question. An earnings recession is almost guaranteed at this point. Seems like people are just buying goods right into the inflation so I’m not sure rate hikes are going to do much. I’m just going to start buying quality stuff based off historical valuations in small chunks. I have said 2800 on the S&P a few times but that could end up being way off either way (3600 or 1600 would be my other bottom guesses based off most plausible scenarios). Be greedy when others are fearful. I don’t think we are to the fearful part yet
 
I was working for a defense contractor during the crash of 2008. I had coworkers who were killing it with their 401(k)s and we’re hoping to retire early. Some of them lost almost half of their retirement in the crash. It was sad watching that happen, but most of them rode it out and regained what they lost in the next five years. It did mean that they had to work longer than they had hoped.
 
BigHornRam said:
www.cnbc.com

Stocks close flat in wild session Friday that saw the S&P 500 briefly fall into a bear market

Stocks were under pressure for most of Friday's session as investors worried the economy could fall into a recession.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

I will still wait to buy.
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I’m going to blame you for all of this. :). It’s an odd fashioned buyers strike. We fall on no real news and lighter than average volume.

Today was good. Everyone was convinced no one wanted to go long into the weekend. Then we see a strong rally in the last hour. So if everyone knows what everyone is thinking do we do the same or the opposite??? Holy chit I’m confused.
 
SAJ-99 said:
I’m going to blame you for all of this. :). It’s an odd fashioned buyers strike. We fall on no real news and lighter than average volume.

Today was good. Everyone was convinced no one wanted to go long into the weekend. Then we see a strong rally in the last hour. So if everyone knows what everyone is thinking do we do the same or the opposite??? Holy chit I’m confused.
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Lot's of bearishness out there. I feel a counter trend rally a coming next week!!!
 
SAJ-99 said:
I’m going to blame you for all of this. :). It’s an odd fashioned buyers strike. We fall on no real news and lighter than average volume.

Today was good. Everyone was convinced no one wanted to go long into the weekend. Then we see a strong rally in the last hour. So if everyone knows what everyone is thinking do we do the same or the opposite??? Holy chit I’m confused.
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Probably lots of short covering towards the close. Things are so oversold right now that even the slightest decent news globally will trigger a good bounce. Thus I think going short over the weekend is a bigger risk, hence the action in final hour…
 
stealthy_bowman said:
Probably lots of short covering towards the close. Things are so oversold right now that even the slightest decent news globally will trigger a good bounce. Thus I think going short over the weekend is a bigger risk, hence the action in final hour…
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Wait wut? I’m going to need help understanding why “slightest decent news” would outweigh the mountain of terrible news that has been brewing the past 6 months to a year? “Oversold” only makes sense if you are confident the valuations 5 months ago ever made any type of sense in the first place (I would argue they didn’t).

I think you may be right about shorts covering, but that could be taking profits / not wanting to guess exactly what will happen Monday pre market.
 
SAJ-99 said:
I’m going to blame you for all of this. :). It’s an odd fashioned buyers strike. We fall on no real news and lighter than average volume.

Today was good. Everyone was convinced no one wanted to go long into the weekend. Then we see a strong rally in the last hour. So if everyone knows what everyone is thinking do we do the same or the opposite??? Holy chit I’m confused.
Click to expand...
I blame day drinking for all this.🙂
 
I'll be 57 this month. 401k got hammered but I'm still up 30% from Feb 2020. Good thing I don't plan on taking a distribution for 15 years....

And just to tempt the market, I bought 1 share of AAPL today....
 
Well, that was a week long overdue - S&P up 6.5%, QQQs up over 7%. My random thoughts, seems like short covering/position squaring. The lower PCE inflation number is positive but the reaction in bonds was pretty lackluster, volume was not great, and commodities held tight, so it is hard to trust the staying power. I'm still tilted very long toward equities and looking for a little more on rebound while trying not be be too greedy. Technical problems for S&P occur around 4550 which is 200 day and lower-highs trend line. I guess we enjoy the long weekend and see what Tuesday brings.
 
BTW, thanks to whomever brought up the Series I Bonds. While it's only $20K, 9.6% or so looks pretty good now.
 
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