Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[huntandfly]

DCA time approaches. Hold fast and get ready to hammer it

 

[noharleyyet]

DCA time approaches. Hold fast and get ready to hammer it

Dollar Cost Averaging? ..terribad with acronyms

 

[huntandfly]

Dollar Cost Averaging? ..terribad with acronyms

Yep

 

[NEWHunter]

This is getting ugly. To answer my original question - I’m not buying yet. I think this gets worse before it gets better

I should say, I’m not buying stocks yet. Spent $20K on ibonds last week

 

[rogerthat]

This is getting ugly. To answer my original question - I’m not buying yet. I think this gets worse before it gets better

I should say, I’m not buying stocks yet. Spent $20K on ibonds last week

When bonds stop moving with the stock market and return to flight to safety status than I think it’s dca time. No clue when that will be or 3500 on the s&p. Historically I’m always early but that’s my plan…I will be buying everything at that point…slowly

 

[huntandfly]

Yeah with Ibonds hitting 9.62% I’m going to have a tough time saying no at this point

 

[SAJ-99]

DCA time approaches. Hold fast and get ready to hammer it

Hammer it? it's DCA. It's like asking a snail to get ready to sprint.

 

[huntandfly]

For some yes, but for those of us who started our investing journey more recently it is going to be important to have a fair amount of cash to throw at some smaller positions that were bought at far too high of valuations

Going to have to hit it with a hammer to make it look like a reasonable average cost

 

[LopeHunter]

For some yes, but for those of us who started our investing journey more recently it is going to be important to have a fair amount of cash to throw at some smaller positions that were bought at far too high of valuations

Going to have to hit it with a hammer to make it look like a reasonable average cost

If bought solid stocks then no reason to worry about where your entry point was. Only one person is the very best at investing so time in the game is more important that a particular slice of time. 10 years or 50 years from now (have invested since was 10 as mowed lawns plus worked in family business then my family helped me buy into mutual funds but was age 30 when really starting significant buys) you likely wish you had bought more at your “overpaid” entry point. Strong companies may differ from today but may hold some for years at a time.

Know the room. Today as inflation is rising and interest rates are rising then the companies that are cash positive and profitable take smaller downside falls than companies that need funding to grow or reach profitability.

I don’t do options. I may lose money on certain stock or bond holdings but will never lose an entire investment play as can happen with options.

I do rotate holdings when “once in a decade” shifts happen and I actively trade when panic is at hand such as flash crashes after 9/11 and Pandemic’s first few months. I put every penny I could free up into more stocks when market reopened post-9/11 then sold in less than two weeks to lock in a gain. Then, two decades later, I sold every bond I had in February 2020 then bought stocks as stocks crashed as I was willing to hold those stocks long term but after seeing the variability in daily up/down moves often exceeding 1% intraday during March to September then I would sell if was up 5% then wait. Things calmed as summer ended but did dozens of trades though held some stocks over 30 days as never got the price bump quickly while sold others after a few days to lock in gains. Tax-deferred accounts so no immediate tax due on gains.

Not active since autumn 2020 other than rotated out of some tech positions in emerging companies as interest rates were expected to rise. I have tech but only the bluest of blue chips until interest rates stabilize.

Did some buying this week of tech blue chips with cash set aside for a project I can delay or cancel if need to but may see a price bounce the next 90 days so will sell and pay taxes then and restart the project with a bit more funds.

I expect the market will calm down and be boring by end of 2023 which is fine by me as prefer to focus on life.

 

[WhitetailHillbilly]

What are you looking to buy next?

I think we are related!

 

[WhitetailHillbilly]

I have been buying some. Thinking about selling some ammo and guns to free up some cash! Naah! not really! That's crazy talk!

 

[huntandfly]

@LopeHunter I agree with almost everything you said there. I also just recently began making serious buys with cash I don’t need right now, and I also don’t do options. I have almost never actively trade and stick to buy and hold investing.

I think you and I may differ slightly on where we think the market is going the next year and a half. The factors you mentioned (inflation, fed rate, likely movement of housing markets, economy slowing to name a few) are beginning to look more and more like some form of recession to me. Purely an educated guess that many other people have already voiced concern about. The market may be less volatile by 2023 but I’m personally betting that it gets worse before it gets better.

I have positions in strong companies primarily, but none of what you or I have said changes the fact that dollar cost averaging down in a falling market is usually a good idea with cash available

 

[TOGIE]

i'm young and know nothing about everything. but i just have a gut feeling we're entering a down and then what will generally be sideways market for a long while.

 

[stealthy_bowman]

We're probably heading lower, but it's anyone's guess where the bottom will be. Eventually though, we'll go higher and make new highs.

Since I don't have a crystal ball, I continue to nibble on VOO with each major decline. I am not selling anything and remain in it for the long-haul.

To quote Buffet, "there has never been a market decline of 3% or more that hasn't been worth buying".

 

[schmalts]

Anyone ever look at or own SBSW? Something fishy, a P/E of 3.8. And a DIV of 11.23 at this point. I can't find a reason not to buy yet

 

[Chama Grande]

I started my personal finance journey about a year ago so suffice it to say - lotta red on my screen. Learning a lot though

 

[rogerthat]

I can't take it any longer. DCA programs back engaged after taking profits last September and going to 100% cash on my trading accounts. Start slow for now with a mix of bonds and stocks. I'm historically early so I suspect thats the case again. I still bet 2800 on the S&P has a solid chance of happening on this bear market. We will see.

 

[TOGIE]

still bet 2800 on the S&P has a solid chance of happening on this bear market. We will see.

surely that's a typo?

 

[huntandfly]

surely that's a typo?

Why would that necessarily be a typo? That only represents a 40% decrease from all time highs

 

[TOGIE]

Why would that necessarily be a typo? That only represents a 40% decrease from all time highs

i didn't say it's necessarily a typo, just surely it's a typo

i'm not gonna bet that it won't. it's just a lot further than i'd bet it would personally.