Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[SAJ-99]

That’s a helpful explanation. I tried to buy some way out of the money puts and calls at open this morning. Both were priced out of utility. Out of the money calls don’t even exist anymore. I’d still pick up some long term puts if the stock stabilizes at this price for a couple weeks but I think there’s little chance of that.

Tried to do the same this morning, pick up OTM puts, and had the same problem. They weren't there. I ended up buying an 80 strike put (at like a 500% Imp Vol, makes me sick just thinking about it) when stock was 95. Stock went to 150 and the option didn't move much, so I figured it was going to be a fun day. Stock fell to 65 and I tried to sell it but the stock kept getting halted (9 times in first 4 hrs). I decided to hold until close and see what happens and ended up with a 3 point gain. GME isn't worth $77, but the decay on the option is brutal and the market seemed to find some footing.

I checked out the WSB Reddit board and those guys are batshit crazy, or stupid, or both. They work each other into a frenzy and try to attack the perceived opposition (there is always a "them"), which i guess is short sellers. Like I said, I don't think any wall street pro who is short GME is unhedged and WSB guys are basically battling among themselves and market maker is trying to keep up (hence the halts today). It's basically a mob. They seemed to have moved on to Blackberry (BB) and Nokia (NOK).
I guess they can do this, post a stock and gang up to move the price. 1st amendment and whatever applies i'm sure, but what happens when they figure out they can drive a stock lower by buying puts. Mobs are fickle.

 

[noharleyyet]

Tried to do the same this morning, pick up OTM puts, and had the same problem. They weren't there. I ended up buying an 80 strike put (at like a 500% Imp Vol, makes me sick just thinking about it) when stock was 95. Stock went to 150 and the option didn't move much, so I figured it was going to be a fun day. Stock fell to 65 and I tried to sell it but the stock kept getting halted (9 times in first 4 hrs). I decided to hold until close and see what happens and ended up with a 3 point gain. GME isn't worth $77, but the decay on the option is brutal and the market seemed to find some footing.

I checked out the WSB Reddit board and those guys are batshit crazy, or stupid, or both. They work each other into a frenzy and try to attack the perceived opposition (there is always a "them"), which i guess is short sellers. Like I said, I don't think any wall street pro who is short GME is unhedged and WSB guys are basically battling among themselves and market maker is trying to keep up (hence the halts today). It's basically a mob. They seemed to have moved on to Blackberry (BB) and Nokia (NOK).
I guess they can do this, post a stock and gang up to move the price. 1st amendment and whatever applies i'm sure, but what happens when they figure out they can drive a stock lower by buying puts. Mobs are fickle.

This eloquently fortifies my cannon fodder theory....

 

[stk]

Tried to do the same this morning, pick up OTM puts, and had the same problem. They weren't there. I ended up buying an 80 strike put (at like a 500% Imp Vol, makes me sick just thinking about it) when stock was 95. Stock went to 150 and the option didn't move much, so I figured it was going to be a fun day. Stock fell to 65 and I tried to sell it but the stock kept getting halted (9 times in first 4 hrs). I decided to hold until close and see what happens and ended up with a 3 point gain. GME isn't worth $77, but the decay on the option is brutal and the market seemed to find some footing.

I checked out the WSB Reddit board and those guys are batshit crazy, or stupid, or both. They work each other into a frenzy and try to attack the perceived opposition (there is always a "them"), which i guess is short sellers. Like I said, I don't think any wall street pro who is short GME is unhedged and WSB guys are basically battling among themselves and market maker is trying to keep up (hence the halts today). It's basically a mob. They seemed to have moved on to Blackberry (BB) and Nokia (NOK).
I guess they can do this, post a stock and gang up to move the price. 1st amendment and whatever applies i'm sure, but what happens when they figure out they can drive a stock lower by buying puts. Mobs are fickle.

I’m going to go with “both.” Some people are betting their entire savings, others are taking out personal loans at god knows what interest rate. They’re feeding off each other, firmly convinced it’s going to keep going up because they so desperately want it to. It’s the clearest case of irrational exuberance I’ve ever seen. It may very well turn out to be the fastest growing and bursting bubble in the history of the market. When it goes, a whole lot of people are going to realize they put themselves into years or decades of debt in a manner of days. How many are going to blame Robinhood for letting them do it?

I share your fear that this will teach a lot of people how easily small cap stocks can be manipulated with options, and the next time they gang up it might be to send a stock the other way. That has the potential to be far worse.

 

[wyoelkfan15]

I guess they can do this, post a stock and gang up to move the price. 1st amendment and whatever applies i'm sure, but what happens when they figure out they can drive a stock lower by buying puts. Mobs are fickle.

As if hedge fund managers haven't been doing this for 40+ years, but sure, blame reddit WSB for owning less than 1% of position and somehow making the market swing like this. Individual investors have NEVER been able to adjust a stock price like this, this situation included. And by the way, its not a group of individuals that called these shorts. Several large bankrolls, plus massive hedge funds called these shorts on their game, and are making bank now.

 

[Treeshark]

Something about this GME thing does not seem quite right. I haven’t done much digging because I have no interest in jumping in, but I do wonder if the company has bought back any larger chunks of stock recently. Cui Bono...

The past ten months have minted quite a few new stock experts, reality is going to be a rude awakening for many when this bubble starts leaking air.

 

[ignorethefringes]

As if hedge fund managers haven't been doing this for 40+ years, but sure, blame reddit WSB for owning less than 1% of position and somehow making the market swing like this. Individual investors have NEVER been able to adjust a stock price like this, this situation included. And by the way, its not a group of individuals that called these shorts. Several large bankrolls, plus massive hedge funds called these shorts on their game, and are making bank now.

I'll say this much, look at this picture I grabbed yesterday. There are two things you can't tell me.

1. You can't tell me that plunge at +/- 11am across the markets isn't fishy.
2. You can't tell me WSB had enough pull to cause something like that.

There is definitely a (or many) much bigger group out there that can manipulate the market in some way, even if it's just because they control massive amounts of funds.

 

[wyoelkfan15]

I'll say this much, look at this picture I grabbed yesterday. There are two things you can't tell me.

1. You can't tell me that plunge at +/- 11am across the markets isn't fishy.
2. You can't tell me WSB had enough pull to cause something like that.

There is definitely a (or many) much bigger group out there that can manipulate the market in some way, even if it's just because they control massive amounts of funds.

My point exactly. The two million users on an internet forum do not have enough scratch to move the SPY like that. Mass media somehow want to blame the little guy on reddit while the Big Money guys sit in the back and manipulate the crap out of the market. Anyone else feel like the market is on a bubble about to pop?

 

[SAJ-99]

As if hedge fund managers haven't been doing this for 40+ years, but sure, blame reddit WSB for owning less than 1% of position and somehow making the market swing like this. Individual investors have NEVER been able to adjust a stock price like this, this situation included. And by the way, its not a group of individuals that called these shorts. Several large bankrolls, plus massive hedge funds called these shorts on their game, and are making bank now.

That is an often believed story that isn't true. HFs acting as a group and manipulating the price is illegal (now anyway). The question the SEC is probably asking this morning is whether that applies to Reddit users. I don't fault the users for making money for even taking money from Melvin Capital. Good for them. But most are not making money. It's an unfair playing field and close to a pump-and-dump. At this point, they need to understand that Citadel is benefitting the most. They are the broker for Robinhood AND an option market maker. They get to halt the stock at any time to rehedge and they can jump in over your order. They set the price and bid-ask spread on the options. You might catch them off guard once, but not twice. That is why the far OTM options weren't available yesterday unless you had a direct line. If they are going to play the game they need to understand the rules. If they still choose to, go for it and I'm going to root for them in some cases. But I know how this ends.

 

[SAJ-99]

I'll say this much, look at this picture I grabbed yesterday. There are two things you can't tell me.

1. You can't tell me that plunge at +/- 11am across the markets isn't fishy.
2. You can't tell me WSB had enough pull to cause something like that.

There is definitely a (or many) much bigger group out there that can manipulate the market in some way, even if it's just because they control massive amounts of funds.

View attachment 171625

Fishy? LOL. There was a news blurb that the stimulus would be delayed and some Dems were rethinking the amount. That is what happens when the market is very expensive, as it has been for months now.

 

[ignorethefringes]

Fishy? LOL. There was a news blurb that the stimulus would be delayed and some Dems were rethinking the amount. That is what happens when the market is very expensive, as it has been for months now.

To be honest I knew that, but keep forgetting it. It's just weird to me that it can dip so hard, but for such a short period of time. It feels unnecessarily reactive. And I don't think the small time guys like me are the ones freaking out when the stimulus gets delayed.

Edited to add: I completely recognize I'm a small time guy who doesn't understand the markets and all that anywhere near a professional level. And I understand it far less than some of you for sure. I mainly just post here to give my perspective.

 

[TOGIE]

the reddit stuff is certainly a little out of control on GME. but at the same time, the whole wallstreetbets and reddit stuff for the majority of it's life has been people posting about what they think are smart plays, short or long term and people latch on for the gamble, overall it's pretty disoriented and lacks collective direction. GME became different though it seems, it went viral and it went viral fast.

i don't have a reddit account but i've lurked wallstreetbets for a month or two now, mostly cause it's hilarious. but, some people on there throw out ideas that aactually seem like decent plays, if nothing else it's a little bit of a fun thing to do with some fun money on the side. and that is what 95% of the people on wallstreet bets (that are actually buying stocks - i think there are fewer than even the membership of the subreddit would suggest are actually buying stock) are doing: playing with like 500-1000 dollars. to say they have serious pull with what is going on with anything is a stretch. though the momentum they've built for GME within and outside of reddit is something of awe and it likely has changed what the stock would probably be doing otherwise.

i'm not sure i share the concern of "what if they figure out they can depress a stock with puts" - WSB is frankly too fragmented by and large, this whole GME thing started with a true belief that Ryan Cohen was gonna change the company, something many people clearly still firmly believe and i don't believe anyone can say that he for sure won't turn the company around. it wasn't a, "let's just make GME skyrocket cause it was shorted", it was a conviction based on some reason that it was wrongly shorted and that belief went viral.

i dunno, WSB is chaotic and literally full of dumbasses, some of whom are making really bad decisions. regardless, they're a financial minority, or really, a minority among the minorities i would think, in a big big big stock market.

that said, their words can carry weight, clearly, and can go viral

 

[SAJ-99]

To be honest I knew that, but keep forgetting it. It's just weird to me that it can dip so hard, but for such a short period of time. It feels unnecessarily reactive. And I don't think the small time guys like me are the ones freaking out when the stimulus gets delayed.

Edited to add: I completely recognize I'm a small time guy who doesn't understand the markets and all that anywhere near a professional level. And I understand it far less than some of you for sure. I mainly just post here to give my perspective.

I love to see other peoples perspectives. We are all the market in aggregate.
A lot of the activity now days is driven by computers- algorithms that read twitter and news feeds and put in orders automatically. Small investors don't react as fast- they can't really. Think of yesterday's action as computers reading something that is bad and pulling buy orders and replacing with sells. They are basically all doing the same thing, so it pushes the market fast. Computers make the market more efficient overall, in terms of trading efficiency. But we are in a market with low volumes, so it doesn't take much to push the market around. The steepness of the decline made me think it was news but by the time I heard it the market had bottomed. After I learned the driver, I wasn't surprised. I was more surprised by the rebound yesterday.

 

[SAJ-99]

the reddit stuff is certainly a little out of control on GME. but at the same time, the whole wallstreetbets and reddit stuff for the majority of it's life has been people posting about what they think are smart plays, short or long term and people latch on for the gamble, overall it's pretty disoriented and lacks collective direction. GME became different though it seems, it went viral and it went viral fast.

i don't have a reddit account but i've lurked wallstreetbets for a month or two now, mostly cause it's hilarious. but, some people on there throw out ideas that aactually seem like decent plays, if nothing else it's a little bit of a fun thing to do with some fun money on the side. and that is what 95% of the people on wallstreet bets (that are actually buying stocks - i think there are fewer than even the membership of the subreddit would suggest are actually buying stock) are doing: playing with like 500-1000 dollars. to say they have serious pull with what is going on with anything is a stretch. though the momentum they've built for GME within and outside of reddit is something of awe and it likely has changed what the stock would probably be doing otherwise.

i'm not sure i share the concern of "what if they figure out they can depress a stock with puts" - WSB is frankly too fragmented by and large, this whole GME thing started with a true belief that Ryan Cohen was gonna change the company, something many people clearly still firmly believe and i don't believe anyone can say that he for sure won't turn the company around. it wasn't a, "let's just make GME skyrocket cause it was shorted", it was a conviction based on some reason that it was wrongly shorted and that belief went viral.

i dunno, WSB is chaotic and literally full of dumbasses, some of whom are making really bad decisions. regardless, they're a financial minority, or really, a minority among the minorities i would think, in a big big big stock market.

that said, their words can carry weight, clearly, and can go viral

I largely agree, but it is clear that the WSB mob is choosing companies with light volumes that can be pushed around. It isn't just GME. Like I said, they went to NOK and BB. There is this belief that they are "small money and don't move the market". This I disagree with. They do move the prices of those stocks and they can increase their impact through options. They are not choosing high volume names like AAPL or MSFT. They choose well known, out of favor brands that they can move.

You have been on WSB for a while. What I can't tell is if a subset is a little different than the rest of the knuckleheads. Have you noticed if there are some posters with more sway over the group?
I have also notice people like to post snap shots of their accounts. I believe these are mostly fake. Paper accounts probably. Mostly because some of the positions don't match what is showing is possible in the real market.

 

[TOGIE]

I largely agree, but it is clear that the WSB mob is choosing companies with light volumes that can be pushed around. It isn't just GME. Like I said, they went to NOK and BB. There is this belief that they are "small money and don't move the market". This I disagree with. They do move the prices of those stocks and they can increase their impact through options. They are not choosing high volume names like AAPL or MSFT. They choose well known, out of favor brands that they can move.

You have been on WSB for a while. What I can't tell is if a subset is a little different than the rest of the knuckleheads. Have you noticed if there are some posters with more sway over the group?
I have also notice people like to post snap shots of their accounts. I believe these are mostly fake. Paper accounts probably. Mostly because some of the positions don't match what is showing is possible in the real market.

i really haven't been on it long enough, occasional lurking for maybe two months and really kinda paying attention to it for the last several weeks

by and large, no there really doesn't seem to be a leader, there are definitely a number of rational minds it seems though.

two things have popped out to me recently: MANY of the longtime posters in that subreddit along with the moderators have expressed a growing uneasiness with the recent explosion in size of wallstreetbets and the newfound "viral" exposure of wallstreetbets. it seems many longtime WSBers see that's it's turned into something that it was never meant to be and that's it is out of control. the media exposure they feel is especially dangeorus

the second thing that seems to be a concern now on the forum is how easily the forum can be manipulated by the outside to work against itself and for the benefit of bigger money on wall street. there is a lot of talk on the forum now of new suspicious bot activity that is really difficult for the moderators and computerized moderators to handle. much like posting fake positions, but i don't think there is as much fake screen shot position posting as you would imagine, just a gut feeling i could be wrong.

to answer your questoin, re. who has the sway? it seems the mob now of WSB is kinda drowning out the above stated concerns users have

i really think WSB started as something innocent enough for hobby traders to post and talk about coin tosses and other positions in the market and then see what happens. i do think there is still an element of that.

 

[Irrelevant]

There's a bit of a perfect storm, we all went home and now have no one looking over our shoulder at what we're doing at any given time, so we can read reddit or HT about day traders, we see that there are people out there making a killing while we slave away at our day jobs just trying to pay the mortgage while making someone else's bonus bigger; we have tons of apps and websites that allow quick and easy access to the market, especially the obscure stuff; and good old uncle sam has been giving us "free money" we don't need while many industries are raking it in hand over fist.

 

[SAJ-99]

i really haven't been on it long enough, occasional lurking for maybe two months and really kinda paying attention to it for the last several weeks

by and large, no there really doesn't seem to be a leader, there are definitely a number of rational minds it seems though.

two things have popped out to me recently: MANY of the longtime posters in that subreddit along with the moderators have expressed a growing uneasiness with the recent explosion in size of wallstreetbets and the newfound "viral" exposure of wallstreetbets. it seems many longtime WSBers see that's it's turned into something that it was never meant to be and that's it is out of control. the media exposure they feel is especially dangeorus

the second thing that seems to be a concern now on the forum is how easily the forum can be manipulated by the outside to work against itself and for the benefit of bigger money on wall street. there is a lot of talk on the forum now of new suspicious bot activity that is really difficult for the moderators and computerized moderators to handle. much like posting fake positions, but i don't think there is as much fake screen shot position posting as you would imagine, just a gut feeling i could be wrong.

to answer your questoin, re. who has the sway? it seems the mob now of WSB is kinda drowning out the above stated concerns users have

i really think WSB started as something innocent enough for hobby traders to post and talk about coin tosses and other positions in the market and then see what happens. i do think there is still an element of that.

Thanks. It is the same everywhere else. People feel aggrieved by something or someone and whine and complain about how unfair life is and then threaten to make "them" pay. The letter linked below can catch people up in this conversation.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wallstreetbets-user-writes-open-letter-cnbc

 

[wyoelkfan15]

That is an often believed story that isn't true. HFs acting as a group and manipulating the price is illegal (now anyway).

I agree it's illegal. How many bankers and money managers did we see go to jail in 2008? None that I can remember.

I've just enjoyed watching the volatility of GME the last month!

 

[TOGIE]

Thanks. It is the same everywhere else. People feel aggrieved by something or someone and whine and complain about how unfair life is and then threaten to make "them" pay. The letter linked below can catch people up in this conversation.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wallstreetbets-user-writes-open-letter-cnbc

they believe in their cause, no doubt. valid or not they believe in it

 

[SAJ-99]

How many bankers and money managers did we see go to jail in 2008?

Not going down that GFC rabbit hole. Your question has been asked by many, but mostly out of anger and without full understanding. There is plenty of blame to go around from that mess. Sadly, we might be even be trying a repeat right now.

 

[wyoelkfan15]

Not going down that GFC rabbit hole.

Agreed, I'm not trying to argue. My only point initially was that people are blaming a relatively small group of people in WSB for this; while the same sources calling for SEC involvement and sanctions have been manipulating markets for decades. Hypocritical is the word I'm looking for.