Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[SAJ-99]

Agreed, I'm not trying to argue. My only point initially was that people are blaming a relatively small group of people in WSB for this; while the same sources calling for SEC involvement and sanctions have been manipulating markets for decades. Hypocritical is the word I'm looking for.

Calling something manipulation is disingenuous. It's an excuse for not understanding. Every transaction affects the market price. That is what markets are for. Look about 30 pages back on this thread about negative oil. Lots of points there ring similar. I see the comparison as betting on a sporting event and blaming the referees for the loss. In this case WSB seem to be winning, just still complaining because they are being "disrespected". GME is back to $150 today. Two weeks ago it was under $20. The interesting part is that the more press WSB gets, the more others jump on the bandwagon which further drives the price higher. Buying begets buying (and selling begets more selling, but that is for later). I find it fascinating but mostly from a psychological angle.

 

[ignorethefringes]

Calling something manipulation is disingenuous. It's an excuse for not understanding. Every transaction affects the market price. That is what markets are for. Look about 30 pages back on this thread about negative oil. Lots of points there ring similar. I see the comparison as betting on a sporting event and blaming the referees for the loss. In this case WSB seem to be winning, just still complaining because they are being "disrespected". GME is back to $150 today. Two weeks ago it was under $20. The interesting part is that the more press WSB gets, the more others jump on the bandwagon which further drives the price higher. Buying begets buying (and selling begets more selling, but that is for later). I find it fascinating but mostly from a psychological angle.

100% agree. That's why it can make sense to play the players, at least a little bit. Elon Musk made a GME reference via tweet late in the afternoon and now it's up to $220+ in after hours trading.

 

[jabber]

Haven't been following all this GME talk until today a little bit. But it sounds to me like it will eventually be in for a pretty big correction. Wouldn't it make sense to Put it about now? Just asking, maybe I am missing something.

 

[Irrelevant]

Haven't been following all this GME talk until today a little bit. But it sounds to me like it will eventually be in for a pretty big correction. Wouldn't it make sense to Put it about now? Just asking, maybe I am missing something.

Maybe, I think several people have been thinking that for a week or so now.

 

[SAJ-99]

Haven't been following all this GME talk until today a little bit. But it sounds to me like it will eventually be in for a pretty big correction. Wouldn't it make sense to Put it about now? Just asking, maybe I am missing something.

Let me just give you some numbers. The stock closed the day at $148. The $125 strike put cost $50 (that is $5000 in real $, because it is for 100shrs). Implied Vol is almost 500% with 25days to expiration. That is a decay (including weekends) of $200 per day. The break even is at stock price of $75 by Feb 19. The stock needs to be cut in half for you to break even. Then Musk comes out with a tweet and the price goes to $220. The price of that $125 strike put just got cut in half tomorrow morning. Just to show the craziness of this move, there is zero open interest in puts with a $125 strike or higher. There are over 18,000 open contracts at the $20 strike.

WSB thinks are gamma-squeezing the market maker, but the price of the options are so high at this point the MM has cushion in the hedge. We haven't even accounted for the $1.5 to $4 bid-ask spread. You can assume you will have to pay $200 just to trade the option if nothing happens to the stock price.
Just FYI, the $200 strike calls are $40 pre Musk tweet. I'm showing trading volume on those at over 9,000 and open interest at end of day was 0.

 

[ignorethefringes]

Let me just give you some numbers. The stock closed the day at $148. The $125 strike put cost $50 (that is $5000 in real $, because it is for 100shrs). Implied Vol is almost 500% with 25days to expiration. That is a decay (including weekends) of $200 per day. The break even is at stock price of $75 by Feb 19. The stock needs to be cut in half for you to break even. Then Musk comes out with a tweet and the price goes to $220. The price of that $125 strike put just got cut in half tomorrow morning. Just to show the craziness of this move, there is zero open interest in puts with a $125 strike or higher. There are over 18,000 open contracts at the $20 strike.

WSB thinks are gamma-squeezing the market maker, but the price of the options are so high at this point the MM has cushion in the hedge. We haven't even accounted for the $1.5 to $4 bid-ask spread. You can assume you will have to pay $200 just to trade the option if nothing happens to the stock price.
Just FYI, the $200 strike calls are $40 pre Musk tweet. I'm showing trading volume on those at over 9,000 and open interest at end of day was 0.

This is so far beyond my understanding lol. That's why I don't trade options.

 

[stk]

This is so far beyond my understanding lol. That's why I don't trade options.

Basically any options, but especially puts, are crazy expensive right now. You’d have a risk a lot of money betting that the stock will utterly tank in a very short time to come out ahead. Every day that goes by without the stock tanking, your put option loses a lot of value. And one tweet from Elon Musk could make your options contracts worthless in a matter of minutes.

 

[jabber]

GME up over 100% in premarket trading right now. This is crazy. There are going to be a lot of people getting burned on this one.

 

[BigHornRam]

Going to be a hell of a mess when this speculative bubble bursts.

Lumber Buyers ‘Pay Up or Run Out’ Amid U.S. Homebuilding Surge

With U.S. lumber prices at fresh record highs, construction companies and wood wholesalers are buying just enough to get by, threatening to make price swings even bigger.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[TOGIE]

GME up over 100% in premarket trading right now. This is crazy. There are going to be a lot of people getting burned on this one.

yeah, there are.

but there are also a lot that are making life changing amounts of money. this started going viral at like 20 bucks a share, was hugely popular on reddit at even lower prices, and people were pouring pay checks into it back then. of course, assuming they don't hold onto the fraying rope for too long

i don't even wanna tell you what some of my friends made monday and yesterday, they were also just playing with fun money but caught wind of this a long time ago. and you could say they pulled out "early"

 

[ashersdad]

Bought some GME at $37/share on the 14th this month. Decided this morning to sell if it hit $300/share. I'm out! Just fun money but still too much stress for me...

 

[Irrelevant]

Yeah, two co workers have made more in January in their "play" accounts than they'll make all year as engineers.

 

[TOGIE]

say what you want about WSB, but i'm not upset that i jumped on the NOK train

fwiw it seems that there is more positivity about NOK than just WSB chatter

 

[SAJ-99]

say what you want about WSB, but i'm not upset that i jumped on the NOK train

fwiw it seems that there is more positivity about NOK than just WSB chatter

If you are making money in anything today, I tip my hat to you. Some ugly numbers out there.

I think we are seeing reflexive action to WSB. Any money manager short one of these (or any name really) is reevaluating the size and how that bet is being made, so they may cover. Keep in mind that total market short interest was already approaching all-time lows. I stand by my view that WSB is focusing on a number they don't understand, but it really doesn't matter. They seem to be focusing on the EOM options expiring Friday and trying to manipulate the price to hold above a certain level. Will be interesting to see what happens after that.

 

[TOGIE]

If you are making money in anything today, I tip my hat to you. Some ugly numbers out there.

yeah, i bought some 5c options last week expiring in march on NOK.... beginners luck, ignorance is bliss, better to be lucky than good - call it any of those things but it ain't skill. though i truly believed to easily see 6 per share or more by then. i'll probably dump them tomorrow if it breaks 7 again, but they will ride through close today.

i do think you make great points regarding WSB. though, i mean, in the big picture, gamestop was shorted and shorted hugely but it never stopped going up. so, no matter how you slice it wall street lost that one i feel

 

[Rainer]

I find it great that the average joe is sticking it to these hedge funds that may go bankrupt because they shorted out Gamestop and AMC, forcing them into almost bankruptcy. These hedge funds now are asking for a bailout, which i hope they don't get.

Yes, I lost some money today when they halted trading but, It's nice to see people standing up for a company they believed in

 

[jabber]

I find it great that the average joe is sticking it to these hedge funds that may go bankrupt because they shorted out Gamestop and AMC, forcing them into almost bankruptcy. These hedge funds now are asking for a bailout, which i hope they don't get.

Yes, I lost some money today when they halted trading but, It's nice to see people standing up for a company they believed in

$600 ought to do it for them.

 

[SAJ-99]

I find it great that the average joe is sticking it to these hedge funds that may go bankrupt because they shorted out Gamestop and AMC, forcing them into almost bankruptcy. These hedge funds now are asking for a bailout, which i hope they don't get.

Yes, I lost some money today when they halted trading but, It's nice to see people standing up for a company they believed in

WHAT?!!!The only HF that seems to be affected is Melvin and they didn't get bailout from the government so I don't care.
AMC has had its theaters closed in major markets for 8 months or more. Gamestop has been a horrible business since the introduction of cloud-based gaming. Selling the equity doesn't force them into bankruptcy. Not being able to pay their debt does.

Interesting that some think this is some average-guy versus Wall Street and average guy won. It just seems to be driven by anger with no place to vent it. It isn't a contest. The general market was down 2.5% today so we all lose. "Wall Street" provides a service. Based on your view of the situation, it must be pointed out that Wall Street always wins, eventually.

 

[SAJ-99]

And here we go.

 

[wyoelkfan15]

And here we go.
View attachment 171777

It's back open now. They have obviously tickled the big money's pocket books.