Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[BigHornRam]

Let's start with 2 big dogs. Social security and Medicare.

All the politicians are waiting for a blackout, before touching the third rail. That day is coming.

 

[SAJ-99]

I lack patience, money, and a filter to run. Otherwise I would consider it.

But you are very self-aware. That would be refreshing.

 

[more_cowbell]

Let's start with 2 big dogs. Social security and Medicare.

Maybe, as well as public assistance fraud. And I'm pro military, but maybe we get better processes in place so they know how all that money is spent. DoD has had difficulty identifying where the money goes (like for a $400 hammer?). A lot of people milking "the system" (Fed government money).

Army employee Janet Mello pleads guilty to stealing more than $100M from Army to purchase luxury items

A U.S. Army employee pleaded guilty to stealing $108 million in Army funds to purchase personal items, including jewelry, clothing, cars and homes.

www.foxbusiness.com

"The conwoman who swindled $108 million from the U.S. Army to sponsor her extravagantly luxurious lifestyle, including 31 homes and 70 vehicles, has agreed to plead guilty to fraud.

Janet Yamanaka Mello, 57, allegedly stole millions of dollars from military funds and blew it on jewelry, clothing, luxury vehicles and real estate in one of the biggest fraud cases the military has ever seen.

The hustler worked for the U.S. Army at Fort Sam Houston in San Antonio, Texas, as a CYS Financial Program Manager and allegedly created a shell company, Child Health and Youth Lifelong Development, in 2016."

 

[antelopedundee]

We fed the beast long enough. Time for the beast to go on a diet.

yep

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[BigHornRam]

yep

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

No offense, but Bloomberg can blow me.

 

[more_cowbell]

yep

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

That article (from yesterday) seems to base some of its premise on this: "In 2019, the Congressional Research Service, charged with briefing Congress on its own policies, concluded that the TCJA didn’t increase wages and had little to no effect on economic growth."

Would that still be the CRS's conclusion today?

 

[jryoung]

jryoung wants his SALT deductions back, I see.

"Under the current rule, there is a $10,000 SALT deduction cap for single and joint-filing taxpayers who deduct local property, income and sales tax on their federal return. This deduction cap was created under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TJCA) and is expected to sunset in 2026."

Who doesn't want a tax deduction back? Especially when it was a partisan "Pay-for".

 

[homers]

Obviously tax receipts aren't keeping pace and billions in refunds are taking a bite. Yet some want to cut taxes even more.

Seems to be more of an out of control spending problem and not so much a lack of tax revenue problem

 

[BigHornRam]

Who doesn't want a tax deduction back? Especially when it was a partisan "Pay-for".

I don't. The standard deduction is plenty.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

We fed the beast long enough. Time for the beast to go on a diet.

You ever used one of the tax calculators... pretty much impossible to diet enough to make a real difference.

Like you'd have to cut the military budget in half and eliminate social security for everyone but disabled/children... etc etc in order to have that make as much a difference as up'ing corporate taxes and income taxes.

 

[howl]

The problem with talking about budget cuts is few can understand how obscenely overfunded all of government is. Those who can are usually either in government or in business taking advantage.

Most everything I've done working for government costs at least five times what it cost me to do privately. And everyone poormouths over lack of funding even though we always run a surplus that must be wasted somehow. As in we just buy stuff to buy stuff. Every scheme for cost cutting I've had some success with has been corrupted and negated. This has been true working with government agencies regional, national and international.

Your taxes are criminally beyond necessary.

 

[SAJ-99]

That article (from yesterday) seems to base some of its premise on this: "In 2019, the Congressional Research Service, charged with briefing Congress on its own policies, concluded that the TCJA didn’t increase wages and had little to no effect on economic growth."

Would that still be the CRS's conclusion today?

That is a very good question. Hard to say because it is impossible to disaggregate the effect of various policy changes. That is always the case in economics but I'm sure it is especially true when you throw a pandemic in middle of your time frame. If I were to guess, I would say that CRS would keep that conclusion. I say that because we know that, absent some pent-up demand from a restricted economy, tax changes don't have much of an effect on the broad economy. (Only economists that want a position in the government still hold that view).

Here are some charts. Basically they just point to how injecting $3-4T in the economy can really distort trends.



Unemployment rate Jan 2018 4.0%, versus Jan 2024 3.7%. Both low by historical measures. Basically we are just getting back on trendline.

A long term trend below is better. Wages have turned higher over the last few years, but that may be the impact of inflation.


Argument that corporate tax cuts resulted in buy backs still holds. The boost in 2018 is pretty obvious.

 

[BigHornRam]

You ever used one of the tax calculators... pretty much impossible to diet enough to make a real difference.

Like you'd have to cut the military budget in half and eliminate social security for everyone but disabled/children... etc etc in order to have that make as much a difference as up'ing corporate taxes and income taxes.

You can do whatever you want to do. Me, I'm putting an electric fence around my little haystack.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

You can do whatever you want to do. Me, I'm putting an electric fence around my little haystack.

Mmmmk

It’s all debt is bad until someone hands you the abacus

 

[Irrelevant]

Gosh, someone sure loves to talk about debt.

 

[antelopedundee]

AAPL is the next stock to toss into the dustbin. What they spent on e-vehicle development is chump change compared to their cash hoard. No blockbusters on the horizon. That's my dustbin and may not be yours. I don't see myself owning in the future.

 

[BigHornRam]

Gosh, someone sure loves to talk about debt.
View attachment 318030

And no one wanted to listen. So here we are now, spending 1 trillion a year on interest on the debt. And the debt is growing at 1 trillion every 100 days. Do the math, it is growing at a 10.7% annual rate. Sounds like a problem to me.

So I have thrown in the towel now warning about the pending train wreck, cause it is now here. Time to focus on how to survive it.

 

[more_cowbell]

AAPL is the next stock to toss into the dustbin. What they spent on e-vehicle development is chump change compared to their cash hoard. No blockbusters on the horizon.

What about their further foray into AI? Later this year Apple will announce news on generative AI. At worst their slogan could be: "Apple AI: Way Better than Google's"

 

[antelopedundee]

What about their further foray into AI? Later this year Apple will announce news on generative AI. At worst their slogan could be: "Apple AI: Way Better than Google's"

Hopefully they've been in it for awhile, but we'll see. I expect it will go lower before it goes higher. How much? Dunno.

 

[BigHornRam]

More selling than buying today.

Gloomy Tuesday: Bitcoin Tanks 12% From Record, Dow Falls 500 Points

Bitcoin’s $150 billion selloff in a matter of hours and the Dow’s second-worst day since December clouded the market euphoria present through much of 2024.

www.forbes.com