Wyoming Elk NR Application Numbers for 2022?

[PrairieHunter]

It would be interesting to see what the market would handle for price increases on some of these tags.

For example if NR General tags were $3,500 each in January and went down $100 a month would they sell out in places like MT and WY? How about 2,500? I tend to think the market would go pretty far beyond where we are now based on what hunters spend on things.

 

[WIbiggame]

given the number of people in the game now it's interesting trying to get more than one elk tag a year,

Again not directed directly at you.

But this is the reason why even with a recession or less people getting into western hunting draw odds won't ever go down. The people in the draws and hunting out west are applying in multiple states and hunting multiple states. These people are financially sound or have decided this is where theier extra cash is going so will always be applying for multiple states thus keeping demand up.

 

[WIbiggame]

It would be interesting to see what the market would handle for price increases on some of these tags.

For example if NR General tags were $3,500 each in January and went down $100 a month would they sell out in places like MT and WY? How about 2,500? I tend to think the market would go pretty far beyond where we are now based on what hunters spend on things.

I think what you would see is guys who apply in multiple states picking 1 state. But I agree it would be interesting to see what the market cap is on price. I am not for pricing people out though. To an extreme atleast I understand that current prices price people out and even raising the cost $25 will price more out.

It would be really cool if we could have a way to see how many people apply in multiple states and what odds would do if people were limited to 1 state.

 

[WapitiBob]

It would be interesting to see what the market would handle for price increases on some of these tags.

For example if NR General tags were $3,500 each in January and went down $100 a month would they sell out in places like MT and WY? How about 2,500? I tend to think the market would go pretty far beyond where we are now based on what hunters spend on things.

People are paying $8000 for NM 34 voucher, over $9000 with the tag. Having hunted 34 a handful of times, it's nowhere near my 2018 WY hunt that cost $1300.

 

[BrentD]

I think what you would see is guys who apply in multiple states picking 1 state. But I agree it would be interesting to see what the market cap is on price. I am not for pricing people out though. To an extreme atleast I understand that current prices price people out and even raising the cost $25 will price more out.

It would be really cool if we could have a way to see how many people apply in multiple states and what odds would do if people were limited to 1 state.

Every year with a 1-point creep is another $52 (plus missed opportunity costs). How many points do you have? What is the real cost of a NR elk tag? Minimally the tag cost plus the point costs, and then figure in interest while you are at it.

I guess that if we are bled slow enough, we are happy to keep bleeding every year.

 

[WIbiggame]

Every year with a 1-point creep is another $52 (plus missed opportunity costs). How many points do you have? What is the real cost of a NR elk tag? Minimally the tag cost plus the point costs, and then figure in interest while you are at it.

I guess that if we are bled slow enough, we are happy to keep bleeding every year.

Minimal points as I try to cash them in if my odds are above 75%. I have no real desire to hunt any LE places. Have 3pts in WY that hopefully go back to 0 this spring, 2 in CO that will be at 0 in 2-3 years and MT PP.

 

[GrantK]

Again not directed directly at you.

But this is the reason why even with a recession or less people getting into western hunting draw odds won't ever go down. The people in the draws and hunting out west are applying in multiple states and hunting multiple states. These people are financially sound or have decided this is where their extra cash is going so will always be applying for multiple states thus keeping demand up.

totally fair, to be honest, I think that my opportunity to hunt elk every year, even as a resident probably has an expiration date on it, as such I'm trying to get as much in before that happens as possible, and set myself up to hunt elk as often as possible after that, will it work? maybe, given how point systems and draw odds are going who knows... lots of other people playing the same game, I can't hate on it since I do the same...
is it taking opportunity from others? again, maybe, I don't know how you score that though, how do you make tags go to the most deserving rather than the well-off that can afford to apply? or even the not-so-well-off that prioritize chasing elk over other things?

 

[Zim]

For 2022, I expect a 20% increase in Wyoming elk applicants. A majority of those will be "point buyers" who previously were not in the application pool and they now have enough points that they are going to burn them and jump in by making an application for a hunt. I expect another huge point jump in Wyoming, given the concern many are voicing, whether true or not, that Wyoming will eventually go to a 90/10 for non-residents and the value they can get from their points today is higher than it will be in the future. I agree, as points get devalued with each passing year, one should burn them as soon as they can; not just in Wyoming and not just because of some anticipated legislative change.

Given the flood of applicants in all states, I’m glad to have so many points stockpiled. If rationed I’ve got more than enough for primo hunts yearly the rest of my life…….IF I can burn them before they are cheapened to hell. But that’s a huge IF.

 

[TheTone]

I think I’m at 10 or 11 pts? I’d really like to cash them in on a type 9 tag and start all over with the plan to split future points with my kid

 

[Wind Gypsy]

Could have hunted GEN multiple times if you have 5 points now.

Would have needed to start buying in '17 - '18 was 95% with 1 in special. '21 was 35% with 2 pts in special which is what someone would have after burning in '18. Am I missing something?

 

[WapitiBob]

probably not, you'd need to have a little luck

special random odds
2016 95%
2017 60%
2018 60%
2019 44%
2020
2021 30%

 

[ccc23454]

probably not, you'd need to have a little luck

special random odds
2016 95%
2017 60%
2018 60%
2019 44%
2020
2021 30%

Those numbers seemed high, looked up on g&f says:16.25% special last year 397÷2196, 2019 24.5% 394÷1605. Your sharp with this stuff am i missing something?

 

[WapitiBob]

That demand report is created before all nr licenses are issued.
Add 300 to the special gen quota and you’ll be close. It’s leveled off there the last cpl years and should be about the same for 2022.

 

[JAG]

I reached out to WGF today to get the latest on numbers. The nice lady on the other line indicated they had a meeting to discuss the numbers for Elk applications. She said both the application numbers for Type 1 and Cow/calf tags increased notably.

I could not get any information out of her regarding numbers or percent increases. As a precaution, she did say a safe bet would be that most Areas increase by part of a point or an entire point. I myself recall a few that increased by two points in WY. She also indicated they've never completely sold out of Antelope tags which happened last year.

If there's anyone on here who was in that meeting and can anonymously disclose those numbers under their alias, please share!
Cheers!

 

[Deleted member 16014]

During the March commission meeting an 8% increase in elk applications was mentioned.

 

[Bullshot]

During the March commission meeting an 8% increase in elk applications was mentioned.

Honestly, where are most of these new people coming from?? I am from the east coast and know of or hear of almost NO ONE picking up this sport (western big game hunting). I have a hard time convincing my buddies to invest in ANY point systems and when I tell them what applications cost they scoff at the idea, let alone multiple applications in multiple states. Hence most of my trips are solo. I really need a better group of friends, HA, but is this increase in interest concentrated in the midwest, in Texas etc, where it is more convenient to get to the mountain states? Hunting the west, coming from as far as I do, has huge and persistent impediments unless money and time is no object to you. They are still major hurdles to me, I just deal with the impediments as they are. Really, I am in the slimmest minority of an outlier in that of the many hunters I know, including a good handful that I work with and share my stories with, I am one of the few who seriously pursues it and I feel like a dying breed dead-ender!

 

[ccc23454]

Honestly, where are most of these new people coming from??

Just a guess based on my observation of plates, but I would say around 50% are from Minnesota and Wisconsin. The most popular second group would be Utards and Washington where I frequent but not nearly as many as MN/WI. Two years ago I counted 23 different states licenses plates during season, sure some could of been rental cars but lots of travelers. Your point about distance is just a hurdle yours is higher than some of these guys obviously. Good luck!

 

[Luke_with_a_lab]

In Montana, most of the out of state hunters I run into are from Washington or Minnesota. I was in shock how many people from Washington I ran into last year. 2 years ago I ran into a group of 3 guys from Washington in one of my favorite elk spots, they had just dropped a group of bachelor bulls. They were all very excited because all three of them had filled their tags at the same time, on their first ever MT Elk hunt... As you could imagine I was not thrilled.

 

[WildWill]

In SW Colorado or NM you more likely to see Texas license plates then any other.

 

[HighDesertSage]

It would be interesting to see what the market would handle for price increases on some of these tags.

For example if NR General tags were $3,500 each in January and went down $100 a month would they sell out in places like MT and WY? How about 2,500? I tend to think the market would go pretty far beyond where we are now based on what hunters spend on things.

I'm still waiting for the first state wildlife agency to figure out how to sell their tags at market value. I think the values you threw out there would probably be pretty accurate. To be honest, if WY went that route, and at that price point I was guaranteed a tag every year, I'd pay it. Then I would shit can all of the other states I apply for. I am already over $1800 in just application fees every year for the states I do apply for.