Wyoming Elk NR Application Numbers for 2022?

[WIbiggame]

There are people like myself stuck between the general tag and above average opportunities

I don't envy your position at all having hopes of hunting an above average Unit to see it slipping further away would be tough. What I was more referring to is if people only intended on hunting the general tag and would apply with say 4pts it would slow the point creep for the general.

I don't know if we will ever see the LE tags ever slow down with point creep with 100s of years worth of applicants waiting for the tags. But the general point creep I could see slowing if more people applied with minimum points as above to 2-3x the points needed.

I wish I was smart enough to have started doing this western hunting 20yrs ago instead of 10.

 

[Shangobango]

Your silver lining is that seven points would have put you in a very frustrating middle ground.. too many points to blow on general and not enough for any of the average diy units.

I am all about silver linings lol.

 

[WapitiBob]

Could have hunted GEN multiple times if you have 5 points now.

 

[Zim]

This is happening because of what @JAG just brought up. There are people like myself stuck between the general tag and above average opportunities (think of tags like the big horn or snowy archery tags). Those tags are creeping hard upward and those that are 2-4 points behind are realizing that they its not 2-4 years to wait but almost double that so 4-8 years. Top that with guys like @Big Fin endorsing on his videos and podcasts about how great the Wyoming General tag is and how its the best Elk value tag in the west and you get those people jumping ship and just grabbing the general tag. As @ccc23454 mentioned, the quality of this General tag is no longer a secret and people are buying into it!

Lol my buddy and I are two in that exact boat at 8 points. Just finalized plans to jump ship. He will split points with his son and go this year, I will burn CO points. I will benefit from his unit experience and split my points with him next year. Got a son just moved to Fort Collins so I'll get to visit too. Loved the Bighorn country but at 61 not risking waiting another 5 years only to fall victim to further point cheapening or god knows what else. I’ve already drawn my share of trophy tags anyway. Let the rooks fight over them. Time to go huntin.

 

[Duck-Slayer]

Could have hunted GEN multiple times if you have 5 points now.

And that was the initial plan to begin with, but I befriended a WI guy that is 2 years behind me in pts…. So…. We would have averaged 3.5 pts this year. Had a shot but not a 100%
Matt

 

[seeth07]

Maybe I should befriend a guy with 3 points and with my 8 we can apply together next year for the general....I wonder what saving 2-3 years of waiting is worth these days for an elk tag???

 

[ccc23454]

Maybe I should befriend a guy with 3 points and with my 8 we can apply together next year for the general....I wonder what saving 2-3 years of waiting is worth these days for an elk tag???

Dont go all monster mulys on us...

 

[JAG]

Maybe I should befriend a guy with 3 points and with my 8 we can apply together next year for the general....I wonder what saving 2-3 years of waiting is worth these days for an elk tag???

no, find a friend with 15 points so you can hunt the bighorns.

 

[WapitiBob]

And that was the initial plan to begin with, but I befriended a WI guy that is 2 years behind me in pts…. So…. We would have averaged 3.5 pts this year. Had a shot but not a 100%
Matt

special
you won't miss the money

 

[Duck-Slayer]

no, find a friend with 15 points so you can hunt the bighorns.

I’m good….
Matt

 

[stealthy_bowman]

I bet NR applications continue to increase marginally upwards this year and will continue to do so until the country slips into the next recession, which may not be that far off. Once that happens, and the average Joe is no longer flush, the bottom will fall out from NR applications.

Rinse repeat through next economic cycle.

 

[kwyeewyk]

WY 2019 NR random draw 1st choice = 13582 applicants
WY 2020 NR random draw 1st choice = 11889 applicants
WY 2021 NR random draw 1st choice = 15929 applicants

I'm going to bet that this year its slightly under that crazy jump in applicants last year.

Just curious where you find this info, the draw odds I normally access don't have totals, unless you just added it up? Also do you have this info for the preference point applicant totals? Thanks

 

[seeth07]

Just curious where you find this info, the draw odds I normally access don't have totals, unless you just added it up? Also do you have this info for the preference point applicant totals? Thanks

I have a spreadsheet that captures the raw data that WY produces here:

Wyoming Game and Fish Department - Drawing Odds

wgfd.wyo.gov

 

[Big Fin]

If my recent Sport Show Q&A sessions in OR and WA are a good sample, I would expect increases to continue. The number of people who told me the hunting changes in those two states now has them considering applying out of state was surprising. Changes to the archery elk in Oregon being the biggest issue.

Most of them mentioned they would try Idaho, given its close proximity. I expect Idaho to get worse and worse for non-resident draw odds as a result of many factors, but surely a result of OR and WA hunters feeling traveling as a non-resident is a better hunt than what is in their back yard. Wyoming will likely see a lot of the same.

It reminded me of how so many deer hunters in western Montana travel to east/northeast Montana for better deer hunting. The deer hunting in some parts of Montana has decline so much that folks find it easier to travel elsewhere than it is to fight for better deer hunting near home. Not a complete parallel to what I heard in OR and WA, but similar.

And if even a fraction of those attendees act on their statements, "I'm buying property in Idaho, Montana or Wyoming and I'm moving there," the wave of new arrivals in those states is not going to subside anytime soon.

For 2022, I expect a 20% increase in Wyoming elk applicants. A majority of those will be "point buyers" who previously were not in the application pool and they now have enough points that they are going to burn them and jump in by making an application for a hunt. I expect another huge point jump in Wyoming, given the concern many are voicing, whether true or not, that Wyoming will eventually go to a 90/10 for non-residents and the value they can get from their points today is higher than it will be in the future. I agree, as points get devalued with each passing year, one should burn them as soon as they can; not just in Wyoming and not just because of some anticipated legislative change.

 

[Kiwi]

I think your in a great spot likely ahead of the creep and should be good. Problem is with all the tag tightening from extreme demand increase in the west i believe the secret of how good a wyoming general tag actually is out, enjoy your next trip as it may be your last for years.

Thanks for that and agree it will probably be my last in elk hunt in WY when i draw. I also hunted elk in WY 6 years ago and hunting there twice in a life time feels like a massive privilege. I do have other points in UT, CO, MT, OR, WY that will allow me to hunt other states.

 

[Kiwi]

I agree with you 100% 5pts should be Ina good spot, but will add this.

I understand @Kiwi is in a unique situation being in another country, but people holding onto points over what is needed to draw is what is driving point creep.

Last year 33% of the general tags went to people who had over the minimum needed in the regular draw. And 20% had over the minimum in the special. There was even someone who used 7pts in the special to draw when 2 was 100% and in the regular 2 people I with 11pt applied when <4 was 100%. 61 people applied with double the amount of points needed in the regular draw.

Now I 100% get people have different plans and life happens so some will cash in higher points. But if everyone above 4pts applied for the general tag point creep would go up for a couple years, but than come back down and normalize around that 4pt mark instead of going up roughly 0.5-0.75pts a year. Unless my mind isn't working these number correctly.

I don't like the idea of adding to point creep and would avoid it if I could! But not being able to hunt the West for the last two years has meant I have more points than I wanted and also I like to apply for hunts that I am confident I will draw, i.e. a point or two over last years draw level, so I can plan with certainty. I have 6 WY pronghorn points too and will apply for a unit that took 3 - 4 points the previous year.

 

[WIbiggame]

I don't like the idea of adding to point creep and would avoid it if I could! But not being able to hunt the West for the last two years has meant I have more points than I wanted and also I like to apply for hunts that I am confident I will draw, i.e. a point or two over last years draw level, so I can plan with certainty. I have 6 WY pronghorn points too and will apply for a until that took 3 - 4 points the previous year.

I hope you didn't take offense to my post was not directed to cause that just was a mathematical observation. Lots of folks as mentioned won't catch the tag they started chasing so will be going into the general with a lot of points.

I love reading your write ups and can't imagine not being able to hunt the last 2 years! I look forward to reading about your adventures

 

[GrantK]

i

If my recent Sport Show Q&A sessions in OR and WA are a good sample, I would expect increases to continue. The number of people who told me the hunting changes in those two states now has them considering applying out of state was surprising. Changes to the archery elk in Oregon being the biggest issue.

Most of them mentioned they would try Idaho, given its close proximity. I expect Idaho to get worse and worse for non-resident draw odds as a result of many factors, but surely a result of OR and WA hunters feeling traveling as a non-resident is a better hunt than what is in their back yard. Wyoming will likely see a lot of the same.

ID tags continue to remind what is happening to OTC/easy to draw elk hunting across the west, considering that just a few years ago I would drive up to ID to hunt, buying a tag on the drive up midway through archery season, then buying another one if I filled the first one with a reasonable amount of time to hunt left. at the time it felt too good to last, and apparently, it was, I just never expected it to get to where it is now quite so fast... add in the new influx of WA/OR residents and if they keep tag day in December it's going to be an interesting roll of the dice but not a good first choice...

WY is in the same boat, I burned points there and had a great time, but looking at it realistically I'm at least a couple of years out from even a general tag at this point unless I get lucky in the random...

given the number of people in the game now it's interesting trying to get more than one elk tag a year, I've been trying some pretty terrible limited opportunity tags just to get out more...if it wasn't for CO I'd be working pretty hard just to go on one elk hunt a year... just think what will happen if CO decides to limit NR opportunity, even just a little bit?

 

[Kiwi]

I hope you didn't take offense to my post was not directed to cause that just was a mathematical observation. Lots of folks as mentioned won't catch the tag they started chasing so will be going into the general with a lot of points.

I love reading your write ups and can't imagine not being able to hunt the last 2 years! I look forward to reading about your adventures

No offense taken. Will have some more write ups to add soon I hope. I have some great stag roar and tahr rut adventures planned.

 

[seeth07]

just think what will happen if CO decides to limit NR opportunity, even just a little bit?

within 5 years, all NR OTC gone...I'd bet every CO point I currently have on it.