We are fighting the last war . . . .

MtEngineer said:
At what point in soceity has technology caused a mass unemployment. Didnt happen in the industrial revolution, computer revolution, why now?
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Survivor bias. We focus on new jobs with each step, but ignore the displaced. Much of industrial investment is entirely based on removing labor as much as possible. If the cost and amount of labor was more then the tech would never be funded in the first place. And it is not just shifting that labor to the seller or repairer of that tech. Also, we ignore folks that due to skill gaps, interest gaps, geographic location etc that moves the work somewhere the displaced can't "go".
 
Treeshark said:
New ways are sometimes not the best way, and the “AI market” is going to theoretically self correct vs human market eventually- why would AI companies not price right up to that point?
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Good question. Why hasn't Chinese/Vietnamese labor priced up to the point of US labor? Also keep in mind that human labor has a lot of costs that a machine doesn't have - health insurance, retirement, OSHA requirements. It is hard to image any job that can potentially be replicated by a computer or robot not being cheaper than the human counterpart.

AI right now is in a mode of replication. It basically just steals stuff because that is easier. Prime example to follow in real time is NYT suit against OpenAI. Google already signed the licensing agreement with NYT because it doesn't want to get bogged down in courts. This will happen in a lot of industries. A scenario is a Pharma company asks AI to come up with Ozempic weight-loss-drug competitor that doesn't violate patent law. AI moves a few molecules around, chemists create and test the drug and it has the same effect. NOVO immediately files a patent infringement claim. Now we have a judge trying to determine if a patent was violated. All the lawyers will be using AI to determine how different the two drugs are. This gets messy fast. Then that decision, however it may go, goes into our collective information on patent infringement and AI gets to use it next time.

Everything in our society eventually ends up in court. Lawyers win every time. ;)

Waiting for the first hunting influencer co to just have AI make the 20min video of that mule deer hunt. Would anyone care that it wasn't real? What if you couldn't tell the difference?
 
SAJ-99 said:
Everything in our society eventually ends up in court. Lawyers win every time. ;)
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Top 25% of lawyers win. Bottom 75% get replaced by AI for routine contracts, deal due diligence, document discovery etc etc etc. Even simple 2001-era search tools cut by 75% the number of litigation paralegals we need for discovery searching. And yea, that created a smaller number of lower paid jobs to scan the docs in. But trust me, "big law" is in the crosshairs on this one. But like with every other segment it seems there will be winners and losers - and it will like help the same 1%.
 
SAJ-99 said:
Waiting for the first hunting influencer co to just have AI make the 20min video of that mule deer hunt. Would anyone care that it wasn't real? What if you couldn't tell the difference?
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AI, please create a hunting video in which the bino harness that I'm trying to sell for my sponsors is absolutely crucial in my success.........
 
338win said:
It’s gonna be really great for society if military aged males have nothing to do and no prospects for a future.
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Don't worry, China and the year 2027 or 2030 may provide some options for that citizen category. At least according to certain experts.
 
The_Jim said:
A lot of us that work in the skilled trades are making substantially more money than folks driving a desk. Every company in the trades is looking for help. All of our journeyman will make at least 100k this year. Some of our senior apprentices will hit that. 25 year old kids with no college education and basically no workplace responsibly besides showing up every day will make 75-100k this year. Supposedly for every 50 people retiring from the trades there are 7 coming to replace them.

Hell, you can go to the beef plant we do contract work at and get a job picking up meat scraps that fell on the floor and make $22/hr with overtime and union benefits right now. Some of those guys cutting meat on the floor are making almost 30/hr and they don’t speak English.

The question is will this folks that lose their jobs be man enough to get their hands dirty or will they just have their hands out for free money? If the pandemic is any indicator of behavior, it will probably be the latter.
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How many hours do they work to get 100k? And in what area of the country? I'm directly above skilled trades and have a pretty good idea of their hourly rates. At least in my area, it would take a lot of OT to get there and I can't get anybody to work OT. Everybody is either wore out or just doesn't want the extra money. 1 out of 6 electricians worked OT for me on Saturday.
 
JDH said:
How many hours do they work to get 100k? And in what area of the country? I'm directly above skilled trades and have a pretty good idea of their hourly rates. At least in my area, it would take a lot of OT to get there and I can't get anybody to work OT. Everybody is either wore out or just doesn't want the extra money. 1 out of 6 electricians worked OT for me on Saturday.
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We average about 50 hours/week.

We do a lot of weekend shutdowns in industrial plants so our pay scale is quite a bit higher than a residential electrician. We actually get x2 pay for Saturday or Sunday work.
 
JDH said:
How many hours do they work to get 100k? And in what area of the country? I'm directly above skilled trades and have a pretty good idea of their hourly rates. At least in my area, it would take a lot of OT to get there and I can't get anybody to work OT. Everybody is either wore out or just doesn't want the extra money. 1 out of 6 electricians worked OT for me on Saturday.
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It would be 40 hours a week here for 52 weeks to hit 110,000 . Roughly for just about all trades, give or take 5% I know you didn't ask me but I find it interesting to compare trade wages around the country.
 
JDH said:
I can't get anybody to work OT
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I hear this a lot and it blows my mind. I don't know when it became optional. Most guys ask now will you work Saturdays? When I started you worked whatever the job was if you weren't there on Saturday you were looking for a new job on Monday. It's good that these guys have the option to opt out of OT but in trades you need to take it while it's there because it's not always there. The guys who turn down the ot the most are the first ones crying the first week they don't get there 40. Every single time.
 
That’s why Bollegraaf, the world’s biggest builder of recycling plants, and the AI start-up Greyparrot are rolling out artificial intelligence systems for sorting recycling. The companies plan to retrofit thousands of recycling facilities around the world with computers that can analyze and identify every item that passes through a waste plant, they said Wednesday.
 
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