We are fighting the last war . . . .

[Bowmannate2000]

I think AI capabilities are extremely overblown by the media and tech companies. Like Togie mentioned, it will likely create efficiency with data analysis and coding applications. But I don't think it's the game changer it's being presented as.

 

[gouch]

When I first started surveying for the Forest Service we would build roads. First a crew of surveyors, four to six people, "Blue collar" would go out with hand compasses, clinometers, a field book and a cloth tape and run a "P" line. Then all the data collected would be given to an engineer "White collar" Who would sit at a drafting table and design the road. Because of the time it took to design the road there were several engineers employed. Then the information would be given back to the surveyors who would slope stake the road. Then a good-sized crew of construction workers with heavy equipment would come out build that road. More-Blue collar workers and a couple of white-collar. Then we got total stations for the surveyors and computers for the engineers, so it only took two to three blue collar workers to do the work and because it was so much faster for the engineers it now only took a couple of white-collar workers to do the same job.

Shortly before I retired, I was watching an engineer design a road. The field data had been gathered by Lidar, one pilot and one white collar guy to gather and compile the field data. Then the engineer downloaded the data into his computer, typed in some parameters, hit enter and the computer designed the road.

Now with AI the pilot can be replaced by a drone operated by AI. The data can be compiled, downloaded, possessed and the road designed all by AI. We already have construction equipment that is controlled by computers and GPS so with the advances in autonomous vehicles it won't be long before no one is needed to design and construct a road. The entire operation of building a road will be done by one person hitting the start button and that guy's job is probably on the chopping block.

So white collar jobs are threatened by AI for sure but blue-collar jobs are just as threatened. Even that guy shingling a roof. I'm sure autonomous robots will be building houses all the way from creating the foundation pad to painting the interior molding very soon.

How will we adapt? I think it will require a total revamp of our social, economic and political systems. We hate change but change is the only constant in life.

 

[Treeshark]

So white collar jobs are threatened by AI for sure but blue-collar jobs are just as threatened. Even that guy shingling a roof.

You might be right, eventually. But a robot to shingle a house isn’t going to be cheap either- just because we have technology to do something doesn’t mean it’s going to be a better option than human.

There are already some major pullbacks happening: to self-checkouts at major chains, work-from-home being greatly trimmed, etc. New ways are sometimes not the best way, and the “AI market” is going to theoretically self correct vs human market eventually- why would AI companies not price right up to that point?

 

[VikingsGuy]

I think AI capabilities are extremely overblown by the media and tech companies. Like Togie mentioned, it will likely create efficiency with data analysis and coding applications. But I don't think it's the game changer it's being presented as.

My son at an "elite" university working on AI coding and I (seeing near ready industry use cases beyond the public chagpt examples) talk about this a lot also. This is a "hey, this internet thing may catch on someday" or "I don't know why anyone with need a computer with more than 64k of memory" moment. When these public prototypes get turned into fully functioning field specific tools in 3-5 years, I would guess we will need at least 25% fewer employees in many fields. Good luck to college graduates outside a few elite schools graduating in fields like computer science, law, finance, accounting, marketing, comms, etc in 2030. But as was mentioned earlier, maybe that just takes up the slack for shrinking work force.

 

[Bowmannate2000]

My son at an "elite" university working on AI coding and I (seeing near ready industry use cases beyond the public chagpt examples) talk about this a lot also. This is a "hey, this internet thing may catch on someday" or "I don't know why anyone with need a computer with more than 64k of memory" moment. When these public prototypes get turned into fully functioning field specific tools in 3-5 years, I would guess we will need at least 25% fewer employees in many fields. Good luck to college graduates outside a few elite schools graduating in fields like computer science, law, finance, accounting, marketing, comms, etc in 2030. But as was mentioned earlier, maybe that just takes up the slack for shrinking work force.

Maybe so... We will see. It has definitely been good for Nvidia stock!

 

[BrentD]

I think y'all need to read this
Player Piano: A Novel https://a.co/d/5QBuz45

 

[fowladdict]

Will AI replace guys like Al Michaels, Joe Buck and Tony Romo in sports broadcast? If so, cool.

 

[fowladdict]

I think y'all need to read this
Player Piano: A Novel https://a.co/d/5QBuz45

I'm more of the yellow bra kind of guy.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Will AI replace guys like Al Michaels, Joe Buck and Tony Romo in sports broadcast? If so, cool.

Your TV already has that feature - "mute" button

 

[gouch]

Everyone talks about how bad AI might get. But it could just as easy be the greatest thing ever conceived by man. A completely automated world may not mean that people won't be able to find a job. I may mean that people don't need a job. I have been retired for almost eight years and I will tell you that not needing a job is much better than having a job.

Our economic system will have to change and our social norms concerning work and its connection to our personal identity will have to be completely revamped. But a world where people don't have to work? We would not only be pretending we have freedom as we do now, but we might actually would be free.

 

[BigHornRam]

There are 435 individuals earning 6 figures, that could easily be replaced by AI.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Everyone talks about how bad AI might get. But it could just as easy be the greatest thing ever conceived by man. A completely automated world may not mean that people won't be able to find a job. I may mean that people don't need a job. I have been retired for almost eight years and I will tell you that not needing a job is much better than having a job.

Our economic system will have to change and our social norms concerning work and its connection to our personal identity will have to be completely revamped. But a world where people don't have to work? We would not only be pretending we have freedom as we do now, but we might actually would be free.

And the internet would make for a safe place for all voices to be heard and respected - until they weren't

I am not trying to be too snarky, but the last 150 yrs leave me less than thrilled with our ability to adapt societies to dramatic underlying shifts driven by tech.

 

[more_cowbell]

Will AI replace guys like Al Michaels, Joe Buck and Tony Romo in sports broadcast? If so, cool.

You can clone someone's voice with AI, so maybe the NFL can bring John Madden back to provide commentary, and Madden's family can get royalties. Let Romo retire.

 

[Treeshark]

But a world where people don't have to work?

From what I’ve seen lottery winners become, I think this would be a complete disaster.

 

[Nick87]

Everyone talks about how bad AI might get. But it could just as easy be the greatest thing ever conceived by man. A completely automated world may not mean that people won't be able to find a job. I may mean that people don't need a job. I have been retired for almost eight years and I will tell you that not needing a job is much better than having a job.

Our economic system will have to change and our social norms concerning work and its connection to our personal identity will have to be completely revamped. But a world where people don't have to work? We would not only be pretending we have freedom as we do now, but we might actually would be free.

 

[gouch]

And the internet would make for a safe place for all voices to be heard and respected - until they weren't

I am not trying to be too snarky, but the last 150 yrs leave me less than thrilled with our ability to adapt societies to dramatic underlying shifts drive by tech.

I was just trying to look at the bright side. Although I do believe my scenario is possible, I do not believe people are capable of adapting quick enough for it to work.

From what I’ve seen lottery winners become, I think this would be a complete disaster.

that is why our societal norms would have to completely change. Since our norms are tied securely to our notion of reality, that is a pretty big chasm to jump.

View attachment 314564

Perhaps, but then again, the whole idea of AI was in a land of make believe just a few years ago.

 

[more_cowbell]

Now with AI the pilot can be replaced by a drone operated by AI. The data can be compiled, downloaded, possessed and the road designed all by AI. We already have construction equipment that is controlled by computers and GPS so with the advances in autonomous vehicles it won't be long before no one is needed to design and construct a road. The entire operation of building a road will be done by one person hitting the start button and that guy's job is probably on the chopping block.

Except there's still going to be a need for people to know where the keys are to open closed USFS gates. Or at least people to operate a cat to plow the locked gate out of the way.

Not joking. I've seen several instances in NE Oregon where USFS just plowed through its own locked gates (complete with steel/concreted posts), presumably because they showed up to do some work one day, but no one had the key.

There was also a recent WSJ article profiling people now needed to "wrangle" workplace robots, since sometimes the latter get lost or confused. So at least there will be job openings for that.

 

[corndog1]

Would these folks be willing to switch over to the blue collar side if jobs are available and most likely make just as much or more money doing that?

 

[gouch]

Except there's still going to be a need for people to know where the keys are to open closed USFS gates. Or at least people to operate a cat to plow the locked gate out of the way.

Not joking. I've seen several instances in NE Oregon where USFS just plowed through its own locked gates (complete with steel/concreted posts), presumably because they showed up to do some work one day, but no one had the key.

Don't tell anyone, but I may or may not still have a Forest Service "H" key. I also may or may not have a key to all the BLM gates on the Medford district. And when I returned my key that opened the majority of the private timber company gates in southern Oregon, the gal at the desk said "Wow, I think you're the first person to ever return a key." So, I should have kept that one too.

 

[noharleyyet]

There is no escape from socio-economic-politco angst...