We are fighting the last war . . . .

[Nick87]

It could be 1 day or 50 years. Of the 335M persons whose primary residence is in the US at this moment in time, 311M are US citizens, and 24M are noncitizens. 10M of the 24M are here illegally. Noncitizen labor force participation is about 70%, so that’s 16.8M noncitizen workers, 7M of whom are undocumented workers.

Next year on this date there might also be 16.8M noncitizen workers, but they will not be all the same people. Some died, some got deported, some left voluntarily, some became citizens, some quit working but didn’t leave the US, some newly arrived, etc. Counting the number of unique workers over a span of time, e.g. 1 year, is calculable only with documented workers.

Only reason I ask is in relation to your statement about them not taking any middle class jobs. Day 1 or even a year or so definitely not from my experience. After about 2 years definitely a good handful. After 5 to 10 years an awful lot of them are entering into middle class blue collar jobs. Truck drivers, laborers, carpenters, painters, concrete finishers, operators etc. Work with quite a few of them on any given day. So I guess my point is it all depends on when you consider them illegal or undocumented.

 

[Pucky Freak]

Only reason I ask is in relation to your statement about them not taking any middle class jobs. Day 1 or even a year or so definitely not from my experience. After about 2 years definitely a good handful. After 5 to 10 years an awful lot of them are entering into middle class blue collar jobs. Truck drivers, laborers, carpenters, painters, concrete finishers, operators etc. Work with quite a few of them on any given day. So I guess my point is it all depends on when you consider them illegal or undocumented.

Perhaps a better question is blue collar job displacement by immigrants (citizens, persons w/ visas, + undocumented persons, all of whom were born in a country other than the US). 47 million immigrants in the US at this moment, 44 million adults, 32 million workers.

Immigrant workers are over-represented in blue collar jobs. There are pros and cons to this from a macro US economic perspective as well as the labor economics of particular industries, like the ones you cited.

Over 90% of Americans are in support of controlled immigration. Yet, as VG pointed out, the two political parties perpetually use immigration as a wedge issue rather than actually convert our poorly/uncontrolled immigration reality into a controlled immigration system.

If we had a controlled system in place, we could speed up or slow down how many immigrants arrived each year, and even select for skilled workers from specific industries. This would work to our advantage in many areas beyond labor economics.

But as of 2024 it’s still an immigration free-for-all and we’re all along for the ride whether we want to be or not. Frustrating beyond frustrating.

 

[Nick87]

Perhaps a better question is blue collar job displacement by immigrants (citizens, persons w/ visas, + undocumented persons, all of whom were born in a country other than the US). 47 million immigrants in the US at this moment, 44 million adults, 32 million workers.

Immigrant workers are over-represented in blue collar jobs. There are pros and cons to this from a macro US economic perspective as well as the labor economics of particular industries, like the ones you cited.

Over 90% of Americans are in support of controlled immigration. Yet, as VG pointed out, the two political parties perpetually use immigration as a wedge issue rather than actually convert our poorly/uncontrolled immigration reality into a controlled immigration system.

If we had a controlled system in place, we could speed up or slow down how many immigrants arrived each year, and even select for skilled workers from specific industries. This would work to our advantage in many areas beyond labor economics.

But as of 2024 it’s still an immigration free-for-all and we’re all along for the ride whether we want to be or not. Frustrating beyond frustrating.

Couldn't agree more.

 

[Trap]

Everyone talks about how bad AI might get. But it could just as easy be the greatest thing ever conceived by man. A completely automated world may not mean that people won't be able to find a job. I may mean that people don't need a job. I have been retired for almost eight years and I will tell you that not needing a job is much better than having a job.

Our economic system will have to change and our social norms concerning work and its connection to our personal identity will have to be completely revamped. But a world where people don't have to work? We would not only be pretending we have freedom as we do now, but we might actually would be free.

Sounds good will AI pay taxes? Who pays for everything when I quit my job?

 

[more_cowbell]

Sounds good will AI pay taxes? Who pays for everything when I quit my job?

Instead of quitting, we may all be needed to build power plants to fuel AI’s increasing demand for electricity.

From a WSJ article today:

“AI models such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT “are just insatiable in terms of their thirst” for electricity, [Arm CEO] Haas said in an interview. “The more information they gather, the smarter they are, but the more information they gather to get smarter, the more power it takes.”

Without greater efficiency, “by the end of the decade, AI data centers could consume as much as 20% to 25% of U.S. power requirements. Today that’s probably 4% or less,” he said. “That’s hardly very sustainable, to be honest with you.”

 

[noharleyyet]

Sounds good will AI pay taxes? Who pays for everything when I quit my job?

Debt forgiveness every 4 years?

 

[longbow51]

Instead of quitting, we may all be needed to build power plants to fuel AI’s increasing demand for electricity.

From a WSJ article today:

“AI models such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT “are just insatiable in terms of their thirst” for electricity, [Arm CEO] Haas said in an interview. “The more information they gather, the smarter they are, but the more information they gather to get smarter, the more power it takes.”

Without greater efficiency, “by the end of the decade, AI data centers could consume as much as 20% to 25% of U.S. power requirements. Today that’s probably 4% or less,” he said. “That’s hardly very sustainable, to be honest with you.”

Thanks for the cheerful note, CopperTop

 

[ismith]

Thanks for the cheerful note, CopperTop

 

[gouch]

Instead of quitting, we may all be needed to build power plants to fuel AI’s increasing demand for electricity.

From a WSJ article today:

“AI models such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT “are just insatiable in terms of their thirst” for electricity, [Arm CEO] Haas said in an interview. “The more information they gather, the smarter they are, but the more information they gather to get smarter, the more power it takes.”

Without greater efficiency, “by the end of the decade, AI data centers could consume as much as 20% to 25% of U.S. power requirements. Today that’s probably 4% or less,” he said. “That’s hardly very sustainable, to be honest with you.”

I guess we will just have to task AI with developing new more efficient ways to produce electricity.

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

AI could return customer service long since outsourced overseas. Things that go through my mind an hour into fixing a TV app. “Now, ok, that didn’t work either. I see, now can you please unplug the power from your television?” Like, what the hell, can AI reps actually be any worse? Thank you, come again.

 

[gouch]

I envision the day when AI will free mankind, and womenkind, from the labor force completely. Freeing us to pursue spiritual and social enlightenment. Freeing us to fill our hearts with art, music and love of all the fine arts. Freeing our minds to engage in contemplation of the true meaning of life and the nature of the universe.

Or perhaps freeing us to just fully engage in the complete and utter enjoyment of our baser instincts.