Utah Done

Zim

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 4, 2011
Messages
1,154
Location
LaPorte, IN
Application finally submitted tonight. Procrastinator with very little motivation to research hunt changes with odds this dismal.

Got 26 NR deer points but burning WY points instead due to quota turmoil there.
 
Finished up application for my Grandson's youth hunt yesterday. Am curious to see how the heavy winter snow impacts the draw numbers. If nothing else building cheaper NR BP for a later time frame.
 
I still don't think I understand how all this point stuff works. This is my third year putting in for a general buck tag in Utah. This is the 2022 draw odds chart for one of the two units I think I might have a chance to draw in. Am I reading this correctly?

There are 52 total tags available, and all the applicants with 4+ points got one. That left 13 tags available to 88 applicants with 3 pts. Do they have a drawing among those 88 for the tags? So there is almost 15% chance for me to draw this year? (Assuming the numbers of applicants and tags is similar.)

Now that I look at the chart again, the 7pt line is throwing me off. Why wouldn't they both get tags?

points.jpg
 
I still don't think I understand how all this point stuff works. This is my third year putting in for a general buck tag in Utah. This is the 2022 draw odds chart for one of the two units I think I might have a chance to draw in. Am I reading this correctly?

There are 52 total tags available, and all the applicants with 4+ points got one. That left 13 tags available to 88 applicants with 3 pts. Do they have a drawing among those 88 for the tags? So there is almost 15% chance for me to draw this year? (Assuming the numbers of applicants and tags is similar.)

Now that I look at the chart again, the 7pt line is throwing me off. Why wouldn't they both get tags?

View attachment 273520
I'm not sure how a general permit allocation goes, but with the limited entries, there is a split of Bonus permits and Regular permits. There's no reservation on the regular permits, it's all chance so anybody can draw, or NOT draw. The chare above shows zero bonus permits, so all the regular permits are randomly drawn.

here's an example of a unit with 2 total tags, one's a bonus tag that's fought for with only those with most points, and then the other is totally random, but still uses points to increase chances.
utahelk.JPG
 
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I'm not sure how a general permit allocation goes, but with the limited entries, there is a split of Bonus permits and Regular permits. There's no reservation on the regular permits, it's all chance so anybody can draw, or NOT draw. The chare above shows zero bonus permits, so all the regular permits are randomly drawn.
General entry permits are preference points, limited entry are bonus points I think. I assumed it was most points get the alotted permits, but I hadn't considered what happens when you get to the end of the line and there are still more applicants than permits. I just assumed that (in the case of the above unit) I would not get drawn until I hit one of those "1 in 1.0" rows, but I think there is a small chance of getting drawn.

I was an art major, I can't handle all this statistics nonsense.
 
Utah terminology is simply wrong, odd and confusing.

General Deer is true preference. But the charts call them all "Regular". Guy who has been longest in line gets the tag.

LE/OIL is about 49.9% true preference and 50.1% (ish) is weighted random (simple bonus).
But the charts call the preference tags "bonus". (flipping their terminology from GS Deer)
And the simple bonus (weighted random) tags are called "regular".
 
There are 52 total tags available, and all the applicants with 4+ points got one. That left 13 tags available to 88 applicants with 3 pts. Do they have a drawing among those 88 for the tags? So there is almost 15% chance for me to draw this year? (Assuming the numbers of applicants and tags is similar.)
Yes, at that point level, random drawing among those 88 guys.
Now that I look at the chart again, the 7pt line is throwing me off. Why wouldn't they both get tags?
One of those guys with 7 points didn't draw because he was in a group application with lower point guys. Their group average was under three. He still shows up on his own line on the report.
 
I still don't think I understand how all this point stuff works. This is my third year putting in for a general buck tag in Utah. This is the 2022 draw odds chart for one of the two units I think I might have a chance to draw in. Am I reading this correctly?

There are 52 total tags available, and all the applicants with 4+ points got one. That left 13 tags available to 88 applicants with 3 pts. Do they have a drawing among those 88 for the tags? So there is almost 15% chance for me to draw this year? (Assuming the numbers of applicants and tags is similar.)

Now that I look at the chart again, the 7pt line is throwing me off. Why wouldn't they both get tags?

View attachment 273520
I’m not sure what you’re reading. The posted screenshot shows 54 tags. They went to the 54 people with the most points. Of people with 3pts, there were 88, and only 13 got tags. That means that 55 people who had 3pts, now have 4pts. That does not include point buyers. Half the people in UT buy points, and don’t apply until they’re ready. Plenty of people with 5pts are going to put in for that hunt. I doubt 3pts gets you very good odds.

IF NOTHING CHANGES then 55 people will have 4pts, and one of them will not get a tag.
 
I’m not sure what you’re reading. The posted screenshot shows 54 tags. They went to the 54 people with the most points. Of people with 3pts, there were 88, and only 13 got tags. That means that 55 people who had 3pts, now have 4pts. That does not include point buyers. Half the people in UT buy points, and don’t apply until they’re ready. Plenty of people with 5pts are going to put in for that hunt. I doubt 3pts gets you very good odds.

IF NOTHING CHANGES then 55 people will have 4pts, and one of them will not get a tag.
Nope, 3 points likely gets you nothing. The points creep every year because there are lmore applications than tags every year. You may get lucky and catch it some year when tags go up or apps for this unit go down for some reasons, otherwise you should pick a different general area that is within your point total or settle in for the long haul and hope something changes.

Be aware however that the change could also be bad. One cover buck from that unit and the apps could double in a year. Worse yet, if one of the Utah tag pimps recommends that unit or pushes all their application clients to that unit you could see the draw odds get worse by a factor of 4 or more in one year.
 
Suckered in one more time. I think I need to burn my elk or deer tags in the next year or two and get out. That said, a glass of wine or a cocktail out is $15, so if I'm already in for a license, and extra $15 or $30 isn't really that big of a deal after the license.
 
Suckered in one more time. I think I need to burn my elk or deer tags in the next year or two and get out. That said, a glass of wine or a cocktail out is $15, so if I'm already in for a license, and extra $15 or $30 isn't really that big of a deal after the license.
Even with the low non refundable fees there, the ROI is so bad I’d walk away if I didn’t have at least 15 points across the board. I’ll have a tough decision to make once my deer points are burned. Peay-to-Play put a system in place to throw crumbs to the DIY hunters he mocks in private. Then sets up the general deer system for the peasants. What a guy.
 
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