Ukraine / Russia

[VikingsGuy]

If everyone is moving into treasuries wouldn't the rates being going down?

A circular question. If people thought govt over burdened with debt wouldn’t rate of new debt be way higher?

And 5% is not unusually high by long term history.

 

[BigHornRam]

A circular question. If people thought govt over burdened with debt wouldn’t rate of new debt be way higher?

And 5% is not unusually high by long term history.

People or institutions buying 10 year treasuries today at 5% may well be kicking themselves a year from now. Just like banks that loaded up on 10 year treasuries a few years ago at much lower rates. Time will tell. I'm getting a 1970's vibe personally.

 

[Handlebar]

A circular question. If people thought govt over burdened with debt wouldn’t rate of new debt be way higher?

And 5% is not unusually high by long term history.

I agree that 5% by any measure is not high. I am reminded about Hemingway's quote about bankruptcy " Gradually and then suddenly"

 

[VikingsGuy]

People or institutions buying 10 year treasuries today at 5% may well be kicking themselves a year from now. Just like banks that loaded up on 10 year treasuries a few years ago at much lower rates. Time will tell. I'm getting a 1970's vibe personally.

I’m not smart enough to predict the long term treasury rate - if I was, I would buy a 35,000 acre ranch with a bunch of elk and spend my time hunting, not arguing on HT

My point was only that size of federal debt is not a key driver of the current rate.

 

[SAJ-99]

People or institutions buying 10 year treasuries today at 5% may well be kicking themselves a year from now. Just like banks that loaded up on 10 year treasuries a few years ago at much lower rates. Time will tell. I'm getting a 1970's vibe personally.

Valid vibe. I kind of have the same feeling but it won’t be driven by the same things as the 70’s. Keep an eye on labor problems.

 

[Rainer]

So what's everyone's opinion on this scenario. So my girlfriends parents are suppose to head off on a trip to Egypt and Jordan leaving Friday. Now it is run by a tourism operator but they got offend when I asked if they've been in contact with them recently? Simply because it's getting kinda crazy over there now. Was I in the wrong?

Coincidentally this is a rebooked trip that was suppose to go too Kyiv but the invasion started the week they were suppose to leave.

 

[VikingsGuy]

why does it feel like a World War is about to pop off with the Israel conflict now

The official start will either be NK crossing the DMZ, Putin using nukes in Europe, Israel nuking Tehran or China crossing the Tawain Straights. You can rest at ease until one of those happens.

 

[VikingsGuy]

So what's everyone's opinion on this scenario. So my girlfriends parents are suppose to head off on a trip to Egypt and Jordan leaving Friday. Now it is run by a tourism operator but they got offend when I asked if they've been in contact with them recently? Simply because it's getting kinda crazy over there now. Was I in the wrong?

Coincidentally this is a rebooked trip that was suppose to go too Kyiv but the invasion started the week they were suppose to leave.

(1) absent knowledge of history between you and them or hearing tone of the question, seems reasonable inquiry on its face
(2) please forward all future travel plans of these people so I can stay the hell away from those regions.

 

[more_cowbell]

The official start will either be NK crossing the DMZ, Putin using nukes in Europe, Israel nuking Tehran or China crossing the Tawain Straights. You can rest at ease until one of those happens.

Or Tehran does something don't count them out

 

[KB_]

The official start will either be NK crossing the DMZ, Putin using nukes in Europe, Israel nuking Tehran or China crossing the Tawain Straights. You can rest at ease until one of those happens.

What's scary, is every single of of those scenarios is very real at the moment. Keeping a close eye. But frankly if I keep my eye on direct east or West I might see a flash.

** That joke sucks and only works on flat earthers, My bad.

 

[kansasdad]

The official start will either be NK crossing the DMZ, Putin using nukes in Europe, Israel nuking Tehran or China crossing the Tawain Straights. You can rest at ease until one of those happens.

……so next month then…..?

Tom Clancy’s next book….

China starting it off, followed by North Korea missiles landing in the South to provoke a reaction. What will General Mille……er, I mean, Joe Biden do??

But pay no attention to the man hiding with his PR team behind a curtain in the Kremlin, as he will continue to threaten to unleash his own missiles, but still be ok with posturing and slogging as we roll into winter.

Meanwhile a completely incognito ethnic cleansing continues in Armenia and Azerbaijan, aided and goaded by Turkey. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh decide, why not us too?

Iran proxies will be waiting for the mullahs to signal that it’s time to strike, with Israel/Netenyahu finally going fully attack mode, scorched earth Old Testament wipe em out mode.

PS: I know Clancy is gone, but it sounds about right

 

[QuazyQuinton]

……so next month then…..?

Tom Clancy’s next book….

China starting it off, followed by North Korea missiles landing in the South to provoke a reaction. What will General Mille……er, I mean, Joe Biden do??

But pay no attention to the man hiding with his PR team behind a curtain in the Kremlin, as he will continue to threaten to unleash his own missiles, but still be ok with posturing and slogging as we roll into winter.

Meanwhile a completely incognito ethnic cleansing continues in Armenia and Azerbaijan, aided and goaded by Turkey. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh decide, why not us too?

Iran proxies will be waiting for the mullahs to signal that it’s time to strike, with Israel/Netenyahu finally going fully attack mode, scorched earth Old Testament wipe em out mode.

PS: I know Clancy is gone, but it sounds about right

Tom Clancy? I can think of a Biblical name for that.

QQ

 

[F250]

And what about all the terrorists that have arrived in the past 3 years walking across our open borders ? On one of my trail cams last week located 1/2 mile from Canada : 4 people dressed in matching black clothing, wearing black face coverings, wearing 4 backpacks two of which were rectangular, packs had rain covers, lead man navigating with a GPS/ phone… ( yes, reported to Border Patrol who said they are being overrun).

 

[SAJ-99]

And what about all the terrorists that have arrived in the past 3 years walking across our open borders ? On one of my trail cams last week located 1/2 mile from Canada : 4 people dressed in matching black clothing, wearing black face coverings, wearing 4 backpacks two of which were rectangular, packs had rain covers, lead man navigating with a GPS/ phone… ( yes, reported to Border Patrol who said they are being overrun).

We need a fence on the Canadian boarder now too??? OH WTF! Well, at least they are fashionable and color coordinated.

 

[VikingsGuy]

And what about all the terrorists that have arrived in the past 3 years walking across our open borders ? On one of my trail cams last week located 1/2 mile from Canada : 4 people dressed in matching black clothing, wearing black face coverings, wearing 4 backpacks two of which were rectangular, packs had rain covers, lead man navigating with a GPS/ phone… ( yes, reported to Border Patrol who said they are being overrun).

Maybe just the MeatEater crew?

 

[F250]

Comical I guess, until it happens in your backyard…

 

[noharleyyet]

Comical I guess, until it happens in your backyard…

Meanwhile...this is what we get from the golden parachute crowd

 

[SAJ-99]

Comical I guess, until it happens in your backyard…

Start recruiting. The BP guy wasn't lying, but let's be realistic and say the risk of someone walking through the forest across the border has existed since we created a border. Nothing has changed other than the number of humans and game trail cameras.

 

[KB_]

Mean while. Things are trucking along in Ukraine. Idk how Ukraine can keep throwing bodies at this. Anyone have a count of the death toll between Russia and Ukraine?

Russia quietly renews offensive across entire Ukraine front: Kyiv

Russian forces have faced high losses in the push for Avdiivka as they continue missile strikes on targets in other parts of Ukraine.

www.newsweek.com

 

[SAJ-99]

Mean while. Things are trucking along in Ukraine. Idk how Ukraine can keep throwing bodies at this. Anyone have a count of the death toll between Russia and Ukraine?

Russia quietly renews offensive across entire Ukraine front: Kyiv

Russian forces have faced high losses in the push for Avdiivka as they continue missile strikes on targets in other parts of Ukraine.

www.newsweek.com

Saw this yesterday. I don't think there are any accurate numbers. Technology is helping Ukraine while Russia just throws bodies at them. War is sad.
"Russia has likely suffered up to 480,000 soldiers killed or wounded in the war against Ukraine, the UK Ministry of Defence reported in an intelligence update.

The Russian casualties include 150,000-190,000 who have been killed or permanently, while 240,000-290,000 soldiers are described as temporarily wounded and could return to the battlefield "in some capacity.""


From August (NYT)
"Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.