Ukraine / Russia

[Deleted member 28227]

I have my doubts that Taiwan looks at what's happened in HK and thinks it's an acceptable outcome.

HK doesn't think HK is an acceptable outcome for that matter...

I guess what I'm saying is that I see the US and China avoiding war, if the US starts to back away Taiwan IMHO would probably bring back their nuclear program and take their security into their own hands.

 

[Nameless Range]

Nuclear powers don't go toe to toe.

You get a proxy war, and/or diplomatic solutions.

China won't go to war with the US for Taiwan or vise versa... they might communicate that they are going to invade, and that we have x number of years to change our supply chains, and offered us something in return, then we gracefully cut ties with Taiwan and China moves in... or something like that.

*Warning: Opinion of some guy who listened to a podcast and doesn't know what he is talking about*


I can't remember the podcast I listened to, but it was some guy who seemed to really be knowledgeable about warfare, kill chains, and what folks are learning by watching Russia struggle in Ukraine. Basically, his take was that China has got to be watching what has happened to Russia and should be very hesitant to committing their large ships to a large offensive in the Straits of Taiwan, which would be necessary in an invasion. The big, expensive, and slow machines of war may be a thing of the past, because if it can be located, it can be destroyed - and cheaply at that. Taiwan should be watching the same war and investing heavily in drones and things that blow the big, expensive, and slow machines of war up. They aren't looking to go on the offensive.

It made sense to me, and it could've just been a guy talking, but bombardment and invasion are two very different things, and his take was that the latter could be very costly for China and in particular its navy.

 

[rwc101]

HK doesn't think HK is an acceptable outcome for that matter...

I guess what I'm saying is that I see the US and China avoiding war, if the US starts to back away Taiwan IMHO would probably bring back their nuclear program and take their security into their own hands.

Agreed. I don't see a direct armed conflict between the US and China. I think China would go full Israel if Taiwan started the nuclear program again.

 

[BigHornRam]

What they gonna do with 5 million boolits?

Supersizing an incompetent, unaccountable IRS

The reconciliation bill Democrats rushed through congress calls for $80 billion in new IRS funding so the agency can hire as many as 87,000 new agents and auditors.

www.washingtontimes.com

Drop them on the ground and run when the federal tax delinquent drug cartels start shooting at them.

 

[Irrelevant]

US Air Force’s view of ‘near-peer’ Russia unchanged by war in Ukraine

Russia’s failure to swiftly overrun Ukraine has shown Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall that Russia remains a “near-peer” nation.

www.airforcetimes.com

Did you read the article? Nothing in it lent a reader to think they're even close to equal.
"Years ago, Russia concluded that U.S. conventional warfare capabilities would dominate in a toe-to-toe fight, Kendall said"
No sane person would say they're peers, unless doing so would get them a bigger budget (your article)

US and Russian military Aircraft - Full comparison | MiGFlug.com Blog

There are a lot of very capable military forces in the world. You may think that the two greatest (biggest in terms of forces, not budget) ones should have very common features that have made them so very successful, but that is not it. Not at all. The US and Russian armies have focused and […]

migflug.com

 

[BigHornRam]

I guess I just assume that Biden/Trump/ Pelosi are a bunch of morons and that the real string pullers don't tell them shit lol

Gee wllm. Not a lot of faith and respect for our elected "leaders".

 

[rwc101]

Ukraine leveled an airbase in Crimea today.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Gee wllm. Not a lot of faith and respect for our elected "leaders".

Pretty sure the DOD/CIA/varies alphabet agencies have a fit every time they have to read in most of these folks.

"Whelp... that's 10 years of work down the drain"

 

[Handlebar]

Did you read the article? Nothing in it lent a reader to think they're even close to equal.
"Years ago, Russia concluded that U.S. conventional warfare capabilities would dominate in a toe-to-toe fight, Kendall said"
No sane person would say they're peers, unless doing so would get them a bigger budget (your article)

US and Russian military Aircraft - Full comparison | MiGFlug.com Blog

There are a lot of very capable military forces in the world. You may think that the two greatest (biggest in terms of forces, not budget) ones should have very common features that have made them so very successful, but that is not it. Not at all. The US and Russian armies have focused and […]

migflug.com

Equal would mean a peer not a near peer
Also from the article;

Russia’s failure to swiftly overrun the former Soviet republic has shown Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall Russia remains a “near-peer” competitor rather than one on par with American military prowess.

Russian leaders have also sought to upgrade their air assets; Kendall noted “they have the numbers and the quality to be a viable air threat.”
“You cannot ignore Russia,” he said. “It’s very much a national security concern.”

 

[BigHornRam]

Pretty sure the DOD/CIA/varies alphabet agencies have a fit every time they have to read in most of these folks.

"Whelp... that's 10 years of work down the drain"

IDK. The upper level of management in the alphabet agencies are every bit as dysfunctional, if not more so than our elected leaders.....

 

[VikingsGuy]

I have my doubts that Taiwan looks at what's happened in HK and thinks it's an acceptable outcome.

It’s like when mom and dad decide when bed time is - little Timmy doesn’t really get a say.

 

[rwc101]

It’s like when mom and dad decide when bed time is - little Timmy doesn’t really get a say.

Dystopian as #*^@#*.

Huh. Huttalk censors the f word.

 

[TOGIE]

that's more than 4 letters...?

 

[Irrelevant]

Equal would mean a peer not a near peer
Also from the article;

Russia’s failure to swiftly overrun the former Soviet republic has shown Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall Russia remains a “near-peer” competitor rather than one on par with American military prowess.

Russian leaders have also sought to upgrade their air assets; Kendall noted “they have the numbers and the quality to be a viable air threat.”
“You cannot ignore Russia,” he said. “It’s very much a national security concern.”

Again, I read that as, if I want to keep having large budgets I need there to be some form of a threat, so let's call the closest threat a "near-peer" with "near" being similar to high school kid and a kindergartener, because they're in the same zip code kind of "near".

 

[noharleyyet]

Dystopian as #*^@#*.

Huh. Huttalk censors the # word.

 

[Handlebar]

Again, I read that as, if I want to keep having large budgets I need there to be some form of a threat, so let's call the closest threat a "near-peer" with "near" being similar to high school kid and a kindergartener, because they're in the same zip code kind of "near".

As a defense contractor we need to label this invasion as a critical national security threat to keep that money pump going,

As an aside, if Russia is not a peer or near peer, shouldn't the Europeans be able to handle their own mess?

 

[BigHornRam]

As a defense contractor we need to label this invasion as a critical national security threat to keep that money pump going,

As an aside, if Russia is not a peer or near peer, shouldn't the Europeans be able to handle their own mess?

Check mate.

 

[BigHornRam]

Dystopian as #*^@#*.

Huh. Huttalk censors the f word.

Better analogy would be 2 rival gangsters negotiating for who gets to rape little Suzy.

 

[rwc101]

Better analogy would be 2 rival gangsters negotiating for who gets to rape little Suzy.

#*^@#* yeah.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Dystopian as #*^@#*.

Huh. Huttalk censors the f word.

Sometimes reality hurts.