Ukraine / Russia

[BigHornRam]

Sh*t nobody said anything about vodka shortage - sue for peace now!!

They like their vodka and don't have a problem getting medieval to get it. Peace through strength wins every time.

 

[Handlebar]

So, let's look at this from an outcomes basis:

1. Ukraine crumbles in first few days, Russia sets up puppet state, sanctions half-heartedly linger but not much changes on the world order -- Well, we now know this isn't happening.
2. Ukraine puts up a grand fight but does not get NATO troops on the ground or in the air and ultimately is crushed by Russia. Folks settle into new normal, puppet in place, sanctions half-heartedly linger, Europe on notice they need to develop a "strong Russia plan" but not much changes on the world order -- I see this as unlikely. I think Ukraine will not passively accept puppet after a noble fight and the Russian atrocities that are underway.
3. Ukraine puts up a grand fight but does not get NATO troops on the ground or in the air and ultimately is crushed by Russia. Ukraine settles in for a long-term insurgency situation. The west continues harsh sanctions and supplies insurgency but no direct action. This situation slowly saps Russia and in a decade or so a very desperate Russia either has an internal revolution or does something preemptively rash. Seems plausible, but will be an ugly and high-risk world.
4. The noble Ukraine resistance (by fellow "rus/slavs" and former countrymen), sanctions and poor performance in the attack causes the Russian army and/or oligarchs to push Putin out. The best possible outcome from a US perspective. Seems plausible but not particularly high probability at this point.
5. Ukraine outright wins but Putin survives and plots his next move - having learned from this one. Seems unlikely but would create a very dangerous world environment to navigate.
6. Ukraine outright wins and Putin is sacked from within. Seems extremely unlikely but also a good outcome for US.
7. NATO puts troops on the ground, restores Ukraine sovereignty but leaves Putin in place. Extremely unlikely. And seems like it just sets up the next dramatic chapter of conflict.
8. NATO puts troops on the ground and pushes to Moscow and forces regime change. Zero chance of this.

In my opinion, the only healthy outcomes from a global perspective with any real chance of happening are #4 and #6. So the "smart genius" play should be to do everything possible to support Ukraine self-defense and make Putin's blunder and atrocities hit home with key stakeholders and the Russian general public.

I believe that #2, 3 seem most likely to me. Regardless of outcome what are the future(5-10 year) ramifications?

Germany ditches its aggressive energy plans and brings its nuclear capability back on line. Also retools its foreign policy i.e. increasing its defense budget perhaps even beyond the 2 % threshold.

China- Russian alliance is strengthened much further, particularly as it benefits China with a steady supply of energy right out her back door. Also the attention and staging of resources may give China some more breathing room particularly in her yard i.e. India. While allowing Russia a guaranteed customer that is not really fussy about their policy aims. Also tying up military and focusing on Europe by the West allows China more latitude with regards to Taiwan.

What are the ramifications of the SWIFT actions? Does this foreshadow a change to the US dollar as the world reserve economy? That would have massive implications here domestically.

Just spitballin, not predictions.

 

[SAJ-99]

So, let's look at this from an outcomes basis:

1. Ukraine crumbles in first few days, Russia sets up puppet state, sanctions half-heartedly linger but not much changes on the world order -- Well, we now know this isn't happening.
2. Ukraine puts up a grand fight but does not get NATO troops on the ground or in the air and ultimately is crushed by Russia. Folks settle into new normal, puppet in place, sanctions half-heartedly linger, Europe on notice they need to develop a "strong Russia plan" but not much changes on the world order -- I see this as unlikely. I think Ukraine will not passively accept puppet after a noble fight and the Russian atrocities that are underway.
3. Ukraine puts up a grand fight but does not get NATO troops on the ground or in the air and ultimately is crushed by Russia. Ukraine settles in for a long-term insurgency situation. The west continues harsh sanctions and supplies insurgency but no direct action. This situation slowly saps Russia and in a decade or so a very desperate Russia either has an internal revolution or does something preemptively rash. Seems plausible, but will be an ugly and high-risk world.
4. The noble Ukraine resistance (by fellow "rus/slavs" and former countrymen), sanctions and poor performance in the attack causes the Russian army and/or oligarchs to push Putin out. The best possible outcome from a US perspective. Seems plausible but not particularly high probability at this point.
5. Ukraine outright wins but Putin survives and plots his next move - having learned from this one. Seems unlikely but would create a very dangerous world environment to navigate.
6. Ukraine outright wins and Putin is sacked from within. Seems extremely unlikely but also a good outcome for US.
7. NATO puts troops on the ground, restores Ukraine sovereignty but leaves Putin in place. Extremely unlikely. And seems like it just sets up the next dramatic chapter of conflict.
8. NATO puts troops on the ground and pushes to Moscow and forces regime change. Zero chance of this.

In my opinion, the only healthy outcomes from a global perspective with any real chance of happening are #4 and #6. So the "smart genius" play should be to do everything possible to support Ukraine self-defense and make Putin's blunder and atrocities hit home with key stakeholders and the Russian general public.

Seems 3 and 4 would have highest probability but people would place bets everywhere.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Does this foreshadow a change to the US dollar as the world reserve economy?

This is the single biggest threat to US hegemony and it doesn't get enough attention. This is why we can run huge deficits and dance with inflationary monetary policy and not become the next Argentina. We must be very careful about constantly convincing other countries that a US dollar financial system is a bad idea for them.

 

[SAJ-99]

What are the ramifications of the SWIFT actions? Does this foreshadow a change to the US dollar as the world reserve economy? That would have massive implications here domestically.

Really good post. Your question is why SWIFT was the most severe option and generally avoided until it couldn't be. That will force Russia toward China's new alternative to SWIFT. Hard to see the dollar not being reserve currency completely, but you could see a slow move toward dollar and yuan competing. The sanctions put every other country on notice as to what economic sanctions could do, now they are thinking how to avoid them. It is not possible if 90% of the countries are on the same page. It is economic suicide.

One thing to remember is China-Russian alliance wouldn't be a merger of equals and China doesn't trust Putin any more than anyone else.

I should clarify my picks (I think 2 is high probability) are mostly based on most severe change, regime change in Russia. A super power pretty much has to fall from within. That said, the poll below is frightening. Sure, i hate polls and can probably find a dozen problems with sampling biases, but this seems like a no brainer of a question. I guess 15% of Americans, regardless of party, would prefer fascism to democracy?

 

[JLS]

That stat is frightening.

 

[Irrelevant]

So, let's look at this from an outcomes basis:

1. Ukraine crumbles in first few days, Russia sets up puppet state, sanctions half-heartedly linger but not much changes on the world order -- Well, we now know this isn't happening.
2. Ukraine puts up a grand fight but does not get NATO troops on the ground or in the air and ultimately is crushed by Russia. Folks settle into new normal, puppet in place, sanctions half-heartedly linger, Europe on notice they need to develop a "strong Russia plan" but not much changes on the world order -- I see this as unlikely. I think Ukraine will not passively accept puppet after a noble fight and the Russian atrocities that are underway.
3. Ukraine puts up a grand fight but does not get NATO troops on the ground or in the air and ultimately is crushed by Russia. Ukraine settles in for a long-term insurgency situation. The west continues harsh sanctions and supplies insurgency but no direct action. This situation slowly saps Russia and in a decade or so a very desperate Russia either has an internal revolution or does something preemptively rash. Seems plausible, but will be an ugly and high-risk world.
4. The noble Ukraine resistance (by fellow "rus/slavs" and former countrymen), sanctions and poor performance in the attack causes the Russian army and/or oligarchs to push Putin out. The best possible outcome from a US perspective. Seems plausible but not particularly high probability at this point.
5. Ukraine outright wins but Putin survives and plots his next move - having learned from this one. Seems unlikely but would create a very dangerous world environment to navigate.
6. Ukraine outright wins and Putin is sacked from within. Seems extremely unlikely but also a good outcome for US.
7. NATO puts troops on the ground, restores Ukraine sovereignty but leaves Putin in place. Extremely unlikely. And seems like it just sets up the next dramatic chapter of conflict.
8. NATO puts troops on the ground and pushes to Moscow and forces regime change. Zero chance of this.

In my opinion, the only healthy outcomes from a global perspective with any real chance of happening are #4 and #6. So the "smart genius" play should be to do everything possible to support Ukraine self-defense and make Putin's blunder and atrocities hit home with key stakeholders and the Russian general public.

another version: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60602936

 

[VikingsGuy]

One thing to remember is China-Russian alliance wouldn't be a merger of equals and China doesn't trust Putin any more than anyone else.

But with a role reversal from cold war 1.0. Now it is Russia that needs help from China.

And at the risk of getting too philosophical, frankly, I wonder how much Russia or China want to project true power beyond their closest bordering neighbors. I would guess they would both be fairly happy to leave the western hemisphere and non-slavic Europe to the US if the US would let them have their own regional spheres of control, with Africa and the middle east being non-aligned raw material sources for all. The desire to push one's own form of governement and lifestyle on every other corner of the planet seems to be a uniquely anglo-saxon impulse. Under this view - the 1950's drive to spread communism would be seen as a one-time exception to Russian and Chinese general world views.

 

[VikingsGuy]

View attachment 214034

On the bright side, it may be the only thing in the world the two sides agree on greater than 80%

 

[JDH]

So, let's look at this from an outcomes basis:

1. Ukraine crumbles in first few days, Russia sets up puppet state, sanctions half-heartedly linger but not much changes on the world order -- Well, we now know this isn't happening.
2. Ukraine puts up a grand fight but does not get NATO troops on the ground or in the air and ultimately is crushed by Russia. Folks settle into new normal, puppet in place, sanctions half-heartedly linger, Europe on notice they need to develop a "strong Russia plan" but not much changes on the world order -- I see this as unlikely. I think Ukraine will not passively accept puppet after a noble fight and the Russian atrocities that are underway.
3. Ukraine puts up a grand fight but does not get NATO troops on the ground or in the air and ultimately is crushed by Russia. Ukraine settles in for a long-term insurgency situation. The west continues harsh sanctions and supplies insurgency but no direct action. This situation slowly saps Russia and in a decade or so a very desperate Russia either has an internal revolution or does something preemptively rash. Seems plausible, but will be an ugly and high-risk world.
4. The noble Ukraine resistance (by fellow "rus/slavs" and former countrymen), sanctions and poor performance in the attack causes the Russian army and/or oligarchs to push Putin out. The best possible outcome from a US perspective. Seems plausible but not particularly high probability at this point.
5. Ukraine outright wins but Putin survives and plots his next move - having learned from this one. Seems unlikely but would create a very dangerous world environment to navigate.
6. Ukraine outright wins and Putin is sacked from within. Seems extremely unlikely but also a good outcome for US.
7. NATO puts troops on the ground, restores Ukraine sovereignty but leaves Putin in place. Extremely unlikely. And seems like it just sets up the next dramatic chapter of conflict.
8. NATO puts troops on the ground and pushes to Moscow and forces regime change. Zero chance of this.

In my opinion, the only healthy outcomes from a global perspective with any real chance of happening are #4 and #6. So the "smart genius" play should be to do everything possible to support Ukraine self-defense and make Putin's blunder and atrocities hit home with key stakeholders and the Russian general public.

I think Ukraine and Russia reach an agreement involving Russia keeping Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea. Allows Putin a way to save a little bit of face.

 

[Handlebar]

One other thing I meant to say.
It has been announced that China and Russia are banning fertilizer export until June 2022. Urea cost have gone from $600 to $900.
Wheat prices along with corn is rapidly going higher. Between higher inflation surging fuel cost and now an drastic increase in fertilizer cost the cost of food should theoretically sky rocket. I am sure that it will be hidden with smaller packaging etc. but those that can least afford this will be hurt the most.
A secondary effect: DEF for your diesel truck will more than likely go up as well, Urea is one of the two main ingredients the other being deionized water.

 

[JT88]

I guess 15% of Americans, regardless of party, would prefer fascism to democracy?

View attachment 214034

Alternate possibility: the "other" 15% thought they were ordering Doordash

 

[Irrelevant]

Sh!t just got real.

 

[VikingsGuy]

And before we start assuming everything from Russia is bad . . .

 

[VikingsGuy]

Sh!t just got real.
View attachment 214043

Good to see virtue signaling is alive and well outside the US.

 

[406dn]

One other thing I meant to say.
It has been announced that China and Russia are banning fertilizer export until June 2022. Urea cost have gone from $600 to $900.
Wheat prices along with corn is rapidly going higher. Between higher inflation surging fuel cost and now an drastic increase in fertilizer cost the cost of food should theoretically sky rocket. I am sure that it will be hidden with smaller packaging etc. but those that can least afford this will be hurt the most.
A secondary effect: DEF for your diesel truck will more than likely go up as well, Urea is one of the two main ingredients the other being deionized water.

I read a bit about China stopping urea exports. They did this last December, largely to bolster their own fertilizer supply. Urea is pretty easy to make, so I don't know if their move matters all that much.

Russia is a large producer of potash. Their exit from that market would tighten the supply of that. Canada also has very large reserves of potash, so it is likely a windfall, for a time, for their potash producers.

 

[Handlebar]

I read a bit about China stopping urea exports. They did this last December, largely to bolster their own fertilizer supply. Urea is pretty easy to make, so I don't know if their move matters all that much.

Russia is a large producer of potash. Their exit from that market would tighten the supply of that. Canada also has very large reserves of potash, so it is likely a windfall, for a time, for their potash producers.

Do you know if the reports of fertilizer cost jumping are accurate?. As a nation do we import much fertilizer?

 

[The Hedgehog]

Key Moments in the Cuban Missile Crisis | HISTORY

These are the steps that brought the United States and Soviet Union to the brink of nuclear war in 1962.

www.history.com

 

[Ben Lamb]

And before we start assuming everything from Russia is bad . . .

This is no longer the Russia of stoic indifference after your fourth child has died from an easily defeated disease.

It is this Russia:

 

[406dn]

Do you know if the reports of fertilizer cost jumping are accurate?. As a nation do we import much fertilizer?

I do know that the US gets the bulk of its potash from Canada. One of the stocks I own is Nutrien. They are the largest potash producer in Canada, maybe the world. The stock has been rising lately.