Ollin Magnetic Digiscoping System

Ukraine / Russia

Tried to wake them up but they didn't want to hear about it. So here we are.


I know you guy's won't listen to it, but he was right.
The look on the face of the guy across from Trump is priceless. It’s the “he is telling me where we buy our nat gas is unfair to him?”
This is also why Germany and Europe are far ahead of the US in renewable energy. Germany renewable electric production is over 40%.
 
None of this week's tragedy should be a big surprise (circa 2008):

 
The look on the face of the guy across from Trump is priceless. It’s the “he is telling me where we buy our nat gas is unfair to him?”
This is also why Germany and Europe are far ahead of the US in renewable energy. Germany renewable electric production is over 40%.
And also why their energy cost are some of the highest in the world.


"Power prices in Germany already are among the highest in the world, even though the country ranges in the European mid-field if prices are seen as a fraction of disposable income. Irrespective of the effects of the Europe-wide price hike in gas prices, the cost distribution of climate action due to higher CO2 prices and other emissions reduction measures have led to intensifying debates in the country about the conditions for a “just transition” towards climate neutrality."
 
And also why their energy cost are some of the highest in the world.


"Power prices in Germany already are among the highest in the world, even though the country ranges in the European mid-field if prices are seen as a fraction of disposable income. Irrespective of the effects of the Europe-wide price hike in gas prices, the cost distribution of climate action due to higher CO2 prices and other emissions reduction measures have led to intensifying debates in the country about the conditions for a “just transition” towards climate neutrality."
Yep. Trade offs. Everywhere and always.
 
Tried to wake them up but they didn't want to hear about it. So here we are.


I know you guy's won't listen to it, but he was right.

I watched and here is my book report.

Trump talked in circles restating his position endlessly. The other man politely let him go on and on. When the other man took his turn to reply, Trump interrupted him several times.

So, Trump says Germany is owned by Russia due to the oil and gas deals. That explains why it took them so long to seize the yacht of one of the oligarchs.
 
I watched and here is my book report.

Trump talked in circles restating his position endlessly. The other man politely let him go on and on. When the other man took his turn to reply, Trump interrupted him several times.

So, Trump says Germany is owned by Russia due to the oil and gas deals. That explains why it took them so long to seize the yacht of one of the oligarchs.
No comment on Germany not funding their share of NATO? Link to the yacht seizure?
 
Did hear about this one. Maybe a good early sign that things are crumbling around Putin

 
So, let's look at this from an outcomes basis:

1. Ukraine crumbles in first few days, Russia sets up puppet state, sanctions half-heartedly linger but not much changes on the world order -- Well, we now know this isn't happening.
2. Ukraine puts up a grand fight but does not get NATO troops on the ground or in the air and ultimately is crushed by Russia. Folks settle into new normal, puppet in place, sanctions half-heartedly linger, Europe on notice they need to develop a "strong Russia plan" but not much changes on the world order -- I see this as unlikely. I think Ukraine will not passively accept puppet after a noble fight and the Russian atrocities that are underway.
3. Ukraine puts up a grand fight but does not get NATO troops on the ground or in the air and ultimately is crushed by Russia. Ukraine settles in for a long-term insurgency situation. The west continues harsh sanctions and supplies insurgency but no direct action. This situation slowly saps Russia and in a decade or so a very desperate Russia either has an internal revolution or does something preemptively rash. Seems plausible, but will be an ugly and high-risk world.
4. The noble Ukraine resistance (by fellow "rus/slavs" and former countrymen), sanctions and poor performance in the attack causes the Russian army and/or oligarchs to push Putin out. The best possible outcome from a US perspective. Seems plausible but not particularly high probability at this point.
5. Ukraine outright wins but Putin survives and plots his next move - having learned from this one. Seems unlikely but would create a very dangerous world environment to navigate.
6. Ukraine outright wins and Putin is sacked from within. Seems extremely unlikely but also a good outcome for US.
7. NATO puts troops on the ground, restores Ukraine sovereignty but leaves Putin in place. Extremely unlikely. And seems like it just sets up the next dramatic chapter of conflict.
8. NATO puts troops on the ground and pushes to Moscow and forces regime change. Zero chance of this.

In my opinion, the only healthy outcomes from a global perspective with any real chance of happening are #4 and #6. So the "smart genius" play should be to do everything possible to support Ukraine self-defense and make Putin's blunder and atrocities hit home with key stakeholders and the Russian general public.
 
A bit off topic here but I for one am impressed with this thread and for the most part everyone has conducted themselves in a respectful manner. I figured this one was going to get shut down pretty quickly! Just shows what type of people hang out on here 👏
 
Did hear about this one. Maybe a good early sign that things are crumbling around Putin

Hopefully they continue to clamp down on “Londongrad” as a money laundering vehicle.

 
So, let's look at this from an outcomes basis:

1. Ukraine crumbles in first few days, Russia sets up puppet state, sanctions half-heartedly linger but not much changes on the world order -- Well, we now know this isn't happening.
2. Ukraine puts up a grand fight but does not get NATO troops on the ground or in the air and ultimately is crushed by Russia. Folks settle into new normal, puppet in place, sanctions half-heartedly linger, Europe on notice they need to develop a "strong Russia plan" but not much changes on the world order -- I see this as unlikely. I think Ukraine will not passively accept puppet after a noble fight and the Russian atrocities that are underway.
3. Ukraine puts up a grand fight but does not get NATO troops on the ground or in the air and ultimately is crushed by Russia. Ukraine settles in for a long-term insurgency situation. The west continues harsh sanctions and supplies insurgency but no direct action. This situation slowly saps Russia and in a decade or so a very desperate Russia either has an internal revolution or does something preemptively rash. Seems plausible, but will be an ugly and high-risk world.
4. The noble Ukraine resistance (by fellow "rus/slavs" and former countrymen), sanctions and poor performance in the attack causes the Russian army and/or oligarchs to push Putin out. The best possible outcome from a US perspective. Seems plausible but not particularly high probability at this point.
5. Ukraine outright wins but Putin survives and plots his next move - having learned from this one. Seems unlikely but would create a very dangerous world environment to navigate.
6. Ukraine outright wins and Putin is sacked from within. Seems extremely unlikely but also a good outcome for US.
7. NATO puts troops on the ground, restores Ukraine sovereignty but leaves Putin in place. Extremely unlikely. And seems like it just sets up the next dramatic chapter of conflict.
8. NATO puts troops on the ground and pushes to Moscow and forces regime change. Zero chance of this.

In my opinion, the only healthy outcomes from a global perspective with any real chance of happening are #4 and #6. So the "smart genius" play should be to do everything possible to support Ukraine self-defense and make Putin's blunder and atrocities hit home with key stakeholders and the Russian general public.

Option 6 is not in the cards, I don't think.

It's option 3 that is most likely. I do not think Russia holds on for a decade of sanctions by the west.
 
Well, it made it for 31 pages. Keeps going like this and... 🤷‍♂️
You read all 31 pages? You've surpassed CNN / FOX / MSNBC for "fair and impartial" reporting. 🤣

On a serious note: AP news seems my favored outlet:


Other news:


"The value of an armed citizenry:

and a growing corps of civilian volunteers are mounting a spirited defense of the capital.

While military experts say the odds are stacked against them, for now the combined Ukrainian defense forces have defied expectations."
 
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