Ukraine / Russia

[TheJason]

Me until spring bear season is done. This place is getting strange…

 

[BackofBeyond]

Me until spring bear season is done. This place is getting strange…

But what about your followers???

 

[TheJason]

But what about your followers???

Keep hammering.

 

[Sytes]

Just for you pommeries waiting for bear season - come back into the light...

This bear's a pom pom version, Ruskie style.

Moscow Square.

 

[Irrelevant]

To end Putin’s war on Ukraine, think like a game theorist

We need to focus intensively on the worst-case scenario — one where there is no negotiated settlement and the U.S. ends up at war with Russia.

thehill.com

One of the more hawkish opinion pieces I've read.

 

[VikingsGuy]

A good take.

For me as long as it isn’t “gotcha politics” or revisionist history or grand conspiracies, I have a lot of time for considered and educated dissent. (Not sure Greene meets that standard)

Why we need wartime dissent

Even if such voices seem wrong in the moment, they bring breadth to our thinking and may be, at least in part, ahead of their time.

www.startribune.com

 

[VikingsGuy]

A twist - will be interesting how this plays out in practice.

Vladimir Putin Wants Europe to Pay for Gas in Rubles

Russia will refuse to accept payment for natural-gas supplies in currencies “that have compromised themselves,” including dollars and euros, the Russian president said.

www.wsj.com

 

[Irrelevant]

A twist - will be interesting how this plays out in practice.

Vladimir Putin Wants Europe to Pay for Gas in Rubles

Russia will refuse to accept payment for natural-gas supplies in currencies “that have compromised themselves,” including dollars and euros, the Russian president said.

www.wsj.com

I saw that, but have no idea what it means.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I saw that, but have no idea what it means.

I don't think anyone does. Putin seems to think it will prop up the value of rubles as they will have to be bought with dollars/euros, but I am not sure how that will work given the banking sanctions. Also, not sure this makes Mr. Xi happy, as he will want dollars and euros (not nearly worthless rubles) in payment for the stuff China sells them and this makes it harder for Putin to get dollars. Maybe Xi & Putin just go old-school barter and exchange oil for manufactured goods without fiscal intermediary.

Frankly, I am surprised they haven't jacked the price of gas to Germany or disrupted flow at times to make it a pain in the butt.

 

[Handlebar]

I don't think anyone does. Putin seems to think it will prop up the value of rubles as they will have to be bought with dollars/euros, but I am not sure how that will work given the banking sanctions. Also, not sure this makes Mr. Xi happy, as he will want dollars and euros (not nearly worthless rubles) in payment for the stuff China sells them and this makes it harder for Putin to get dollars. Maybe Xi & Putin just go old-school barter and exchange oil for manufactured goods without fiscal intermediary.

Frankly, I am surprised they haven't jacked the price of gas to Germany or disrupted flow at times to make it a pain in the butt.

just speculating, Eu will have to buy rubles to pay for gas thus supporting the value of the ruble?
The ruble is close to being where it was at this time last year .013 vs 0.10/dollar March 21 to March 22

 

[VikingsGuy]

just speculating, Eu will have to buy rubles to pay for gas thus supporting the value of the ruble?
The ruble is close to being where it was at this time last year .013 vs 0.10/dollar March 21 to March 22

Problem is that their use of rubles and dollars are both constrained by the sanctions so while the theoretical effect is as you say, the practical effect may be much different.

 

[TOGIE]

Problem is that their use of rubles and dollars are both constrained by the sanctions so while the theoretical effect is as you say, the practical effect may be much different.

is it a potential move to create an excuse to cut off gas supply?

tell people you have to pay in rubles, rubles don't work due to banking sanctions, putin says you don't pay you don't get?

 

[Handlebar]

Problem is that their use of rubles and dollars are both constrained by the sanctions so while the theoretical effect is as you say, the practical effect may be much different.

If EU needs gas and Russia demands payment in rubles who is constrained?

 

[TOGIE]

nah they wouldn't intentionally cut off one of their revenue streams...

i dunno

thinking out loud on my keyboard over here

 

[Deleted member 28227]

If EU needs gas and Russia demands payment in rubles who is constrained?

For whatever reason Kurt won't sell me one of his fancy SG packs...

 

[Handlebar]

EU needs energy, Russia could demand payment in gold

 

[Handlebar]

I will be the first to admit that I do not understand international currency exchange etc. But Russia has the energy and as long as Europe is buying from them I cannot see where they don't have some leverage

 

[VikingsGuy]

If EU needs gas and Russia demands payment in rubles who is constrained?

Where do they then use these rubles and why do they need them? They can already print more of their own and nobody else wants them now.

As for the dollars they would get from those that purchase the rubles in the first place, where can they spend their dollars in light of sanctions?

How does this help them any more than getting the same dollars directly from oil sales?

It seems like sixth-grade econ S&D curve thinking trying to solve for a graduate-level problem on Putin's behalf.

But who knows - we are in fairly uncertain territory.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Where do they then use these rubles and why do they need them? They can already print more of their own and nobody else wants them now.

As for the dollars they would get from those that purchase the rubles in the first place, where can they spend their dollars in light of sanctions?

How does this help them any more than getting the same dollars directly from oil sales?

It seems like sixth-grade econ S&D curve thinking trying to solve for a graduate-level problem on Putin's behalf.

But who knows - we are in fairly uncertain territory.

If the last 2 years have taught me anything it's that we need micro to be part of the core curriculum of us high schools.

 

[VikingsGuy]

A decent philosophical background for how we work through global challenges.

The Political Orphanage: How to Prevent or Provoke Stupid Wars (1h23m)

Are you a Liberal or a Realist when it comes to geopolitics? This episode is a crash course in International Relations Theory: What is the fundamental nature of conflict between states? Naked power, relationships, or a clash of ideas? By the end of today’s program, you’ll grasp the fundamentals...

castro.fm