Ukraine / Russia

It seems odd that Putin would get everything he wants out of the invasion and then call it a fair settlement. But I'm sure there's a lot that I don't know.

QQ
Seems like his original goal was a full-on puppet state, so letting an independent but crippled Ukraine survive would be a compromise from his perspective I suppose. How generous of him ;)
 
Seems like his original goal was a full-on puppet state, so letting an independent but crippled Ukraine survive would be a compromise from his perspective I suppose. How generous of him ;)

I think Putin went into this with a set of intermediate strategic ends, knowing that this likely wasn't going to be that simple. I am guessing they ranged from the complete reabsorption of the Ukraine into Russia to just gaining control of the Donbass and/or Crimea. Based on the clear lack of military success his negotiating position is getting weaker by the day. This isn't the first we have heard his demands; they were much steeper a couple weeks ago. He and Zelinsky are playing chicken right now. In the last days Russia has been forced to commit its reserve forces, and they retasked their forces that were staged for an amphibious landing in Odessa, to try and reduce Mariupol, they have stretched supply lines, and are slowly losing momentum across all efforts. I think this makes him more desperate/dangerous, and I am sure he feels like he is walking a tight rope. If this ends in a ceasefire, this isn't over. The Russians don't view this as a war with Ukraine; it is just one battle in the campaign to regain their position. I am curious to see how far this miscalculation sets them back....
 
If this ends in a ceasefire, this isn't over. The Russians don't view this as a war with Ukraine; it is just one battle in the campaign to regain their position.
^^^^ The most important 12 words of this thread. Can we find a non-nuclear path to deal with his delusion of being a second Peter the Great and restoring the full breadth of Stalin's Soviet regime?
 
I suggest we invite comrade Putin to a Hunttalk bear hunt in honor of his glorious victory and let him wear the bacon pants this year…
Or just invite him to any public shooting range after a bunch of bulk 5.56 ammo showed up at a local gun shop. There's always a chance somebody gets shot in that setting - for the love of God, muzzle control people.
 
^^^^ The most important 12 words of this thread. Can we find a non-nuclear path to deal with his delusion of being a second Peter the Great and restoring the full breadth of Stalin's Soviet regime?

I would think it is clear to Putin by now that he doesn't have a non-nuclear path for his delusions of grandeur.

I think our best non nuclear path to stop him is with economic sanctions until Russia has rebuilt Ukraine, more or less. Even after that, they need to earn their way back out of a doghouse.
 
Is it so certain that Russia is gonna "win" this? They seem stalled - but parsing news today in light of war is difficult.

I think one could argue, they have already lost in respect to some metrics/prior goals, but I guess what I am wondering is if it is conceivable that Ukraine could resist enough that Russia, for their security and not to overextend themselves, withdraws?
 
I would think it is clear to Putin by now that he doesn't have a non-nuclear path for his delusions of grandeur.

I think our best non nuclear path to stop him is with economic sanctions until Russia has rebuilt Ukraine, more or less. Even after that, they need to earn their way back out of a doghouse.
I think the Treaty of Versailles showed you can't win the peace with a focus on economic punishment. Frankly, it would be better to go the other way - dispose of Putin and have an eastern European rebuild like post-war West Germany and Japan. That plus enhanced alignment with India would really box China in - which is why one way or the other China will prop up Putin and sow distrust of the west within India (as if the Brits didn't do a good enough job of that already).
 
what I am wondering is if it is conceivable that Ukraine could resist enough that Russia, for their security and not to overextend themselves, withdraws?
I think he nukes Kiyv before he withdraws, unless withdrawal is part of a packaged deal where Rus gets significant territory.
 
I listened to a fascinating podcast this morning. The suggestion was that the US has been escalating since the end of the cold war and have backed Putin into a corner.

My very basic summary of the situation is that at the dissolution of the soviet union, we agreed to not advance NATO alliances east into former soviet states. We did not follow that from the start and have been steadily gaining ground in former soviet nations. In 2014 a democratically elected Ukrainian government that was sympathetic with russia was overthrown by a US sponsored Coup, partnering with some shady characters (actual neo-nazis) to do some of the dirty work.


While it's easy to agree that Putin's treatment of his own people and Ukrainians is not a-ok, there appears to be a whole lot of info pointing to US as the aggressor forcing Putin into a corner. How would you expect to US to react to a Russian sponsored Coup overthrowing the canadian or mexican government?
 
Is it so certain that Russia is gonna "win" this? They seem stalled - but parsing news today in light of war is difficult.

I think one could argue, they have already lost in respect to some metrics/prior goals, but I guess what I am wondering is if it is conceivable that Ukraine could resist enough that Russia, for their security and not to overextend themselves, withdraws?

I think it is possible that Russia could lose, but it isn't up to us, it is up to the people of the Ukraine to decide how long they want to fight and suffer. So far the Ukrainians have surprised the world, they may have more fight in them than we expect. I think at some level the Ukrainians know that they are giving up their sovereignty if they capitulate to Putin's terms. Where a ceasefire under his terms is a win for Putin, it is a crushing defeat for Ukraine's future....
 
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