Ukraine / Russia

VikingsGuy said:
Floating the Yuan would sink his ship - and he knows it. The rest of the world has been pushing this for two decades and they have done everything conceivable to resist - yet somehow Putin invades Ukraine and everybody thinks this is the new goal.
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Here's an interesting read.
www.chinadailyhk.com

New Bretton Woods moment needed

The existing multilateral system must undergo a reset, with China as an essential player.
www.chinadailyhk.com www.chinadailyhk.com
 
BigHornRam said:
Here's an interesting read.
www.chinadailyhk.com

New Bretton Woods moment needed

The existing multilateral system must undergo a reset, with China as an essential player.
www.chinadailyhk.com www.chinadailyhk.com
Click to expand...
It is always nice to see China's money wagging the UN dog.

But it never addressed the real issue - to be a reserve currency it needs to float. Floating the yuan would put major pressure on the communist system and give US/UK financial markets major influence on Chinese fiscal policy. Something that Xi does not want. He has been masterful in navigating his growth while not having to float - he will not float unless/until he has no other choice or until China decides to drop its remaining "planned economy" approach to economics.

The more realistic play - a play he screwed up - was to continue to prop up Europe and ingratiate himself with Germany and use the Chinese economy to tip the reserve currency to the Euro as a way of weakening the US and the dollar. But his ham-handed support of Putin over the last 60 days burned years of goodwill needed for this approach.
 
VikingsGuy said:
It is always nice to see China's money wagging the UN dog.

But it never addressed the real issue - to be a reserve currency it needs to float. Floating the yuan would put major pressure on the communist system and give US/UK financial markets major influence on Chinese fiscal policy. Something that Xi does not want. He has been masterful in navigating his growth while not having to float - he will not float unless/until he has no other choice or until China decides to drop its remaining "planned economy" approach to economics.

The more realistic play - a play he screwed up - was to continue to prop up Europe and ingratiate himself with Germany and use the Chinese economy to tip the reserve currency to the Euro as a way of weakening the US and the dollar. But his ham-handed support of Putin over the last 60 days burned years of goodwill needed for this approach.
Click to expand...
This is not what Xi or Putin want. It's what the Great Reset folks want. Maybe explains why Xi and Putin are acting in such a belligerent manner? They feel their power slipping away?
 
Generally speaking requirements for a reserve currency:
  • The country's central bank allows the currency value to "float" against other currencies
  • The country has few if any government capital flow/utilization restrictions
  • The country has a long-established transparent and predictable legal system governing finance
  • A very large and liquid govt. bond market
  • The country has a long tradition of economic stability
  • The country unambiguously respects private property rights
  • The government is restrained in promoting an export economy above all else
China doesn't check any of these boxes.
 
BigHornRam said:
This is not what Xi or Putin want. It's what the Great Reset folks want. Maybe explains why Xi and Putin are acting in such a belligerent manner? They feel their power slipping away?
Click to expand...
Classic BHR whiplash moment - we are talking about China plotting to displace dollar as the reserve currency as the reason for Xi supporting Putin in Ukraine - and out of nowhere, we are talking about the Great Reset elites weakening China and Putin as a reason for Ukraine. I need to seek a doctor and a personal injury lawyer on this one - my neck hurts.
 
VikingsGuy said:
Doesn’t change my point at all - I am talking about cost of transportation not cost of containers. Under normal circumstances ocean/mile is dramatically cheaper than any other form of high volume transport.
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If the container costs a dollar or $16k it’s still cost of transportation. That container isn’t getting on that ship for “cheap” ocean miles. we aren’t and haven’t been in normal circumstances. This could be the new normal for years to come.
 
Jezz said:
If the container costs a dollar or $16k it’s still cost of transportation. That container isn’t getting on that ship for “cheap” ocean miles. we aren’t and haven’t been in normal circumstances. This could be the new normal for years to come.
Click to expand...
The commodities that were being discussed aren't in containers. As for goods made in china that are amenable to container shipping, these goods aren't just tossed loosely onto railcars either.

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VikingsGuy said:
Classic BHR whiplash moment - we are talking about China plotting to displace dollar as the reserve currency as the reason for Xi supporting Putin in Ukraine - and out of nowhere, we are talking about the Great Reset elites weakening China and Putin as a reason for Ukraine. I need to seek a doctor and a personal injury lawyer on this one - my neck hurts.
Click to expand...
So you are saying the "New Bretton Woods" moment is a pipe dream and should be dismissed?
 
So, seems like (i) Ukraine is explicitly neutral e.g. Switzerland/Sweden + (ii) Russia keeps Crimea + (iii) Russia keeps the post-2014 "breakaway" portions of eastern Ukraine + (iv) some basket of platitudes and ring kissing about eliminating mysterious nazi forces and protection Russian speakers in Ukraine are Putin's face-saving exit package.

I would like to see him get nothing but a bloody lip, but it is very unlikely Ukraine military holds out long enough to destabilize Russia from within via war fatigue and sanctions - that would take several years at the very least. Also very unlikely US puts boots on the ground to remove him.

So, how many folks die between now and this general settlement framework is agreed to - that is the question we will watch in the coming weeks. Or in the alternative will Ukraine fight until tanks role across Ukraine and their government is replaced by a puppet - and then settle into a decade-long insurgency?

It is heartbreaking to think of the price the average Ukrainian will suffer either way.
 
VikingsGuy said:
So, seems like (i) Ukraine is explicitly neutral e.g. Switzerland/Sweden + (ii) Russia keeps Crimea + (iii) Russia keeps the post-2014 "breakaway" portions of eastern Ukraine + (iv) some basket of platitudes and ring kissing about eliminating mysterious nazi forces and protection Russian speakers in Ukraine are Putin's face-saving exit package.
Click to expand...
Who pays to rebuild Ukraine in this scenario and what happens to the sanctions against Russia?

I think @MinnesotaHunter may have said it previously, at some point Putin needs to be dealt with. Allowing him to escape with a face-saving package seems like a kick-the-can-down-the-road-and-end-up-back-where-we-are-now-very-soon type of plan. But I could certainly still support it if it prevented more Ukrainian civilian deaths.
 
VikingsGuy said:
So, seems like (i) Ukraine is explicitly neutral e.g. Switzerland/Sweden + (ii) Russia keeps Crimea + (iii) Russia keeps the post-2014 "breakaway" portions of eastern Ukraine + (iv) some basket of platitudes and ring kissing about eliminating mysterious nazi forces and protection Russian speakers in Ukraine are Putin's face-saving exit package.

I would like to see him get nothing but a bloody lip, but it is very unlikely Ukraine military holds out long enough to destabilize Russia from within via war fatigue and sanctions - that would take several years at the very least. Also very unlikely US puts boots on the ground to remove him.

So, how many folks die between now and this general settlement framework is agreed to - that is the question we will watch in the coming weeks. Or in the alternative will Ukraine fight until tanks role across Ukraine and their government is replaced by a puppet - and then settle into a decade-long insurgency?

It is heartbreaking to think of the price the average Ukrainian will suffer either way.
Click to expand...
It seems odd that Putin would get everything he wants out of the invasion and then call it a fair settlement. But I'm sure there's a lot that I don't know.

QQ
 
neffa3 said:
Who pays to rebuild Ukraine in this scenario and what happens to the sanctions against Russia?

I think @MinnesotaHunter may have said it previously, at some point Putin needs to be dealt with. Allowing him to escape with a face-saving package seems like a kick-the-can-down-the-road-and-end-up-back-where-we-are-now-very-soon type of plan. But I could certainly still support it if it prevented more Ukrainian civilian deaths.
Click to expand...
Good questions. I wasn't suggesting it is a good idea, just that it is the realistic understanding of the moment. As for sanctions, my guess is they stick for a while but slowly leak/evaporate - see Venezuela. Weirdly, the sanctions against the oligarchs (which I support on a moral basis even if they are ineffective) may actually be helping him reign in some of the oligarchs who may have gotten more powerful than he wished. The nuclear-armed tyrant is a problem the world has not yet solved.
 
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