Ukraine / Russia

[VikingsGuy]

Or maybe it just shouldn't have been broadcast. My thought is that something like that could still happen, but all parties have to deny it publicly.

Pretty hard to deny the presence of a $75MM military jet streaking through the air firing at Russian planes. They had to come from somewhere.

 

[Ben Lamb]

A more reserved lapdog of the oligarchs/general who would put him there.

At the end of the day, the only thing that has power in such a corrupt system is money. When the money is threatened, everyone is disposable.

Everyone.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Google "Russian A2AD Strategy" I tried to find some open source that explains why these jets aren't some kind of silver bullet. Russian tactics don't rely on air supremacy (AC centric) but rather denial (primarily ground based systems). Unless the Russian radars are broken/disrupted; which would certainly be a huge escalation, these jets won't make a significant contribution...

View attachment 214782

I agree - $500 million in shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons will make a much bigger difference than 10 fighter jets.

A couple of dozen US flown A10s however would do some damage - but would also likely start WW3.

 

[Irrelevant]

Pretty hard to deny the presence of a $75MM military jet streaking through the air firing at Russian planes. They had to come from somewhere.

So is it that Ukraine doesn't have any jets, they're all destroyed, or as @MinnesotaHunter pointed out, it would be a suicide mission as Russia would just shoot them down?

But yeah, I guess my thought was you could truck them over the border.

 

[VikingsGuy]

So is it that Ukraine doesn't have any jets, they're all destroyed, or as @MinnesotaHunter pointed out, it would be a suicide mission as Russia would just shoot them down?

But yeah, I guess my thought was you could truck them over the border.

Apparently Ukraine has preserved some, but they are using them sparingly to avoid losing altogether.

But my point is, in smaller countries adding significantly to the numbers of these incredibly complex weapons systems would be quite easy. Current estimates are that Ukraine started with about 35 working Mig-29s. Poland was talking about sending all 27 of theirs. A doubling of the number of jets operating would be noticed.

 

[MinnesotaHunter]

I agree - $500 million in shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons will make a much bigger difference than 10 fighter jets.

A couple of dozen US flown A10s however would do some damage - but would also likely start WW3.

I think the key take-away is that the jets would be very helpful, but unless you break those radars, they will just be expensive lawn darts. Until that happens, the missiles are more useful.

 

[MinnesotaHunter]

Apparently Ukraine has preserved some, but they are using them sparingly to avoid losing altogether.

But my point is, in smaller countries adding significantly to the numbers of these incredibly complex weapons systems would be quite easy. Current estimates are that Ukraine started with about 35 working Mig-29s. Poland was talking about sending all 27 of theirs. A doubling of the number of jets operating would be noticed.

Currently, they Ukraine has plenty of jets, given how few sorties they are flying per day. If they could have, that 40 mile convoy would be a highway of death....

 

[TOGIE]

So is it that Ukraine doesn't have any jets, they're all destroyed, or as @MinnesotaHunter pointed out, it would be a suicide mission as Russia would just shoot them down?

Ukraine: Are arms shipments from the West making a difference?

Russian has struggled to gain air supremacy as Ukrainian forces make use of missiles supplied by the West.

www.bbc.com

"But UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC that Russia had so far not been successful in destroying the country's air defences and air force.

...

Mr Wallace said Ukraine's ability to keep some of its air defences intact was already forcing Russian aircraft to fly at night to avoid detection."

i read somewhere else i think that the fact that their air defenses remain intact, meaning their stationary higher altitude capable defenses, meant that russian aircraft were relying on staying lower to the ground, which then exposes them to all the hand launched defenses. sobering video in that link, even though russians, it's still watching people die.

i guess they're just not really using their jets, probably because if they did they'd jsut start losing them? and the combination of their air defenses and hand launched defenses are doing a good job of keeping russia from fully accomplishing what they're trying to?

 

[44hunter45]

I don’t think so.

Anything that starts with, "I know a guy ...."

 

[44hunter45]

It’s deeper than that!

There is no Russia.

We didn't really walk on the moon.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I’m starting to pick up some strong Mussolini/Gaddafi vibes from this whole Putin situation.

Mussolini was voted out after allies landed in Sicily, Gaddafi also military defeat on home turf.

Also something to keep in mind.

1917-2022 US had 18 different presidents

1917-2022 Really only 7
Lenin
Stalin
Khrushchev
Brezhnev
Gorbachev (edited per below)
Yeltsin
Putin

Prior to Lenin, Czars... Russian's have basically had autocrats for 500 years.

 

[VikingsGuy]

(decade of revolving door of leaders)

I'm calling foul on this -- how much harder would it have been to type:

Andropov
Chernenko
Gorbachev (who lasted longer than Ford, Bush Sr or Trumpster)

Your six is then nine and your readers get the full picture.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I'm calling foul on this -- how much harder would it have been to type:

Andropov
Chernenko
Gorbachev (who lasted longer than Ford, Bush Sr or Trumpster)

Your six is then nine and your readers get the full picture.

Chernenko = 13 Months
Andropov = 14 months
Gorbachev = 6 years

but also I left out Malenkov, Molotov, Rykov... as there were transitional not really leader leaders... Ken keeps telling me not to write term papers

 

[Irrelevant]

Chernenko = 13 Months
Andropov = 14 months
Gorbachev = 6 years

but also I left out Malenkov, Molotov, Rykov... as there were transitional not really leader leaders... Ken keeps telling me not to write term papers

I like term papers.

 

[44hunter45]

So even if we accept for argument’s sake that the AP, Reuters, BBC, FoxNews, CNN, HuffPost and Brietbart are completely unreliable, what evidence can you offer that your preferred voices are any better?

Proving that Bob lies, in no way means Sue
is honest. Sue pointing out Bob’s lies does nothing to bolster Sue’s credibility.

What happens when we can no longer discern satire from fact? I think the Babylon Bee is funny as hell, but there are people from left and right taking it seriously and triggering every day. JP Sears on Essential Oils is a side splitter, and he is cashing the YT checks. That ANYONE would take him seriously is a little scary to me.

Mike Rowe recalls on one of his podcasts a conversation he had with Jon Steward. Stewart was explaining his own shock and fear when polls revealed that the majority of Americans trusted him more than any other news source. Stewart just wanted to be snarky guy. It was never in his mind to be taken at face value.

The modern litmus test for truth is obviously whether it comes from your own tribe or not.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Chernenko = 13 Months
Andropov = 14 months
Gorbachev = 6 years

but also I left out Malenkov, Molotov, Rykov... as there were transitional not really leader leaders... Ken keeps telling me not to write term papers

I could have forgiven the Chernenko and Andropov omissions, but as a child of the cold war the Gorbachev oversight was the proverbial straw.

 

[VikingsGuy]

What happens when we can no longer discern satire from fact? I think the Babylon Bee is funny as hell, but there are people from left and right taking it seriously and triggering every day. JP Sears on Essential Oils is a side splitter, and he is cashing the YT checks. That ANYONE would take him seriously is a little scary to me.

Mike Rowe recalls on one of his podcasts a conversation he had with Jon Steward. Stewart was explaining his own shock and fear when polls revealed that the majority of Americans trusted him more than any other news source. Stewart just wanted to be snarky guy. It was never in his mind to be taken at face value.

The modern litmus test for truth is obviously whether it comes from your own tribe or not.

I am fairly certain a significant portion of people have been gullible, humorless, clueless, tribal, and provincial throughout human history. All that is new is that the internet allows them to put this on public display.

But ya, it does make for challenging discussions.

Even Rush L. (in his early years at least). I got to meet him in the early 90's and in private laughed at how serious some folks took him. In the mid 90's my dad, sister and I had to take the radio out of our my parent's home for my mom to keep her sanity as he whipped her up into an existential frenzy every day.

 

[schmalts]

I agree - $500 million in shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons will make a much bigger difference than 10 fighter jets.

A couple of dozen US flown A10s however would do some damage - but would also likely start WW3.

But man would it be cool to see those Warthogs hit that convoy. It would be better than Iraq

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I like term papers.

Was looking through my college stuff... interesting and relevant table to what's happening now...

 

[VikingsGuy]

But man would it be cool to see those Warthogs hit that convoy. It would be better than Iraq

I know a guy who flew an A10 in Gulf War 1 - like most real battle-hardened soldiers he speaks very little of his service, but he does get a certain look on his face when the Highway of Death is mentioned.