Ukraine / Russia

[Treeshark]

Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s legitimately 60-80%. Remember Stalin is still popular in Russia.

The article @Ben Lamb posted is worth a read.

Thanks for pointing me to the article Ben posted, just read it- very interesting.

My quick reading on his approval rating trend over the past two years leads me to think it’s probably way lower than your prediction at this point, especially among those 50 and under. I really don’t think the past few weeks has helped that at all, I hope not at least.

The world needs them to collapse from within now, he has backed himself into a corner that he cannot escape from while saving face. As Sun Tzu wrote, it’s best to build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across… unless they keep blowing up that bridge with their own bombs. He has left himself no way out.

 

[Sytes]

A Britannica record of Putin's history. Seems a bit more intelligent than some are inclined to credit.
Not sure what Putin is better for the world, more specifically - current Ukraine. A loose goose to dethrone himself or a mind more instrumentality planned.

Vladimir Putin | Biography, KGB, Political Career, & Facts | Britannica

Vladimir Putin is a Russian leader and former KGB officer who has shaped his nation’s political landscape for decades with a mix of strategic maneuvers, military aggression against Russia’s neighbors, and controversial policies.

www.britannica.com

 

[VikingsGuy]

The problem is that he's not a one man band. It's like whack-a-mole. Knock one in the head and another pops up.

If he gets removed from the inside it will be by folks who want to go back to being rich thugs with yachts and they will put expansionism on the back burner.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

My quick reading on his approval rating trend over the past two years leads me to think it’s probably way lower than your prediction at this point, especially among those 50 and under. I really don’t think the past few weeks has helped that at all, I hope not at least.

Russians are now basically getting all their information from the state, to begin with it was exactly a pluralistic news environment.

I think we take for granted freedom of speech and the press.

Stalin… not over thrown… Saddam…Assad

Chances of Putin being displaced by a rival… maybe, popular uprising 0%

 

[VikingsGuy]

Russians are now basically getting all their information from the state, to begin with it was exactly a pluralistic news environment.

I think we take for granted freedom of speech and the press.

Stalin… not over thrown… Saddam…Assad

Chances of Putin being displaced by a rival… maybe, popular uprising 0%

A popular uprising against Putin + military + state police 0%. But popular uprising giving cause/cover to military or oligarch to reset the kremlin on a more path more conducive to enjoying their billions - plausible.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

A popular uprising against Putin + military + state police 0%. But popular uprising giving cause/cover to military or oligarch to reset the kremlin on a more path more conducive to enjoying their billions - plausible.

Exactly

 

[Treeshark]

Russians are now basically getting all their information from the state

Traditional news, perhaps. Information in general? I don’t agree.

A “normal” 20-30 year old Russian cannot be naive to the fact that most of their savings is essentially gone, their credit cards no longer work, McDonalds have all closed, they cannot get new iPhones, their social media apps are shut down etc…

I think these factors are going to leave a mark, and I’m heartened by reports of protests in the street. We can only hope they continue to build momentum.

 

[Treeshark]

But popular uprising giving cause/cover to military or oligarch to reset the kremlin on a more path more conducive to enjoying their billions - plausible.

Yes, this is exactly how I see this ending. I truly hope so anyway.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

@Treeshark I like the Sun Tzu allusion… though at this point how does Russia save place, seems the more sanctions we put in place the harder a retreat becomes.

Any Russian leader is going to need to save face…

 

[Treeshark]

seems the more sanctions we put in place the harder a retreat becomes.

For Putin, yes. For a new leader, I think it makes their job easier. “That was some crazy shit that last guy got us into, and this sucks- let’s get the hell out of Ukraine and get the good stuff we all like back.”

I think this may turn into their Vietnam or Iraq in a sense. That or the Russian people are way crazier than I thought and Putin or a successor doubles down and this gets way worse. Coin flip.

You can probably tell I’ve played a lot of Goldeneye 007 in my day, I’m basically an expert on Russian military strategy.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Traditional news, perhaps. Information in general? I don’t agree.

A “normal” 20-30 year old Russian cannot be naive to the fact that most of their savings is essentially gone, their credit cards no longer work, McDonalds have all closed, they cannot get new iPhones, their social media apps are shut down etc…

I think these factors are going to leave a mark, and I’m heartened by reports of protests in the street. We can only hope they continue to build momentum.

But we have to recall that Russians as a people have processed history differently than us. The winning argument is not that Putin is a bad person doing bad things and you should enjoy a true well behaved democratically elected leader like us. The argument to their history is Putin is not as strong as you think and that he is weakening himself and Russia by these actions and the chaos of the "provisional govt of 1917" and the post-Soviet 1990s are becoming likely because of his rash action, you need a different firm hand to restore normalcy.

Pushkin has been quoted about how the choice in Russia is not between democracy and dictatorship, it is between chaos and an authoritarian. Most Russians want a strong hand to keep order - we need to convince them Putin is now a weakened paper tiger who is acting in a way that increases chaos and can no longer provide order.

 

[SAJ-99]

If something similar has been posted, sorry.

‘Putin is angry’: U.S. intel heads warn Russia could ‘double down’ in Ukraine

But the agency leaders agreed Russia would struggle to overcome fierce Ukrainian resistance.

www.politico.com

 

[Treeshark]

we need to convince them Putin is now a weakened paper tiger who is acting in a way that increases chaos and can no longer provide order.

Great point. I would contend that Putin is doing an effective job of convincing them of that on his own right now, that’s kind of my point.

It is interesting to see his approval ratings by age group- there is a sharp drop-off right around the line of where people would have been around during before the heyday of the USSR vs those who came of consciousness after it fell.

Might this signal a generational shift in that thought pattern? I hope it does, but certainly not holding my breath.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Traditional news, perhaps. Information in general? I don’t agree.

A “normal” 20-30 year old Russian cannot be naive to the fact that most of their savings is essentially gone, their credit cards no longer work, McDonalds have all closed, they cannot get new iPhones, their social media apps are shut down etc…

I think these factors are going to leave a mark, and I’m heartened by reports of protests in the street. We can only hope they continue to build momentum.

Mir is still processing card transactions, their are Russian domestic alternatives to most consumer goods, recreational travel… how realistic was that for though outside of the top 1% the Russian gini index is waaaay worse than ours.

What traditional news? It’s not like they get The NY Times delivered… Russians aren’t and weren’t logging into the WSJ and reading English articles.

Point being Putin has been trying to isolate and insulate Russia for decades.

What percent of the US thinks Russia is actually great? It’s not zero, the PR war has been pretty effective here.

Russia was humiliated in the 90s I’m sure there are plenty of hardliners in the military who are with Putin all the way.

There isn’t precedent for this situation but there also isn’t precedent for a leader like Putin to be ousted.

I agree with @VikingsGuy’s comment above.

 

[Treeshark]

by “traditional news” I meant in the traditional Russian sense: state controlled.

there also isn’t precedent for a leader like Putin to be ousted.

I’m starting to pick up some strong Mussolini/Gaddafi vibes from this whole Putin situation. Not saying he is going to be met with a firing squad, but someone like him going down at the hands of his own people would not be unprecedented by any means.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Mir is still processing card transactions, their are Russian domestic alternatives to most consumer goods, recreational travel… how realistic was that for though outside of the top 1% the Russian gini index is waaaay worse than ours.

What traditional news? It’s not like they get The NY Times delivered… Russians aren’t and weren’t logging into the WSJ and reading English articles.

Point being Putin has been trying to isolate and insulate Russia for decades.

What percent of the US thinks Russia is actually great? It’s not zero, the PR war has been pretty effective here.

Russia was humiliated in the 90s I’m sure there are plenty of hardliners in the military who are with Putin all the way.

There isn’t precedent for this situation but there also isn’t precedent for a leader like Putin to be ousted.

I agree with @VikingsGuy’s comment above.

I think we (I include myself) are so immersed in our individual liberty/freedom narrative and origin story that we can struggle to see why poor Chinese, poor Russians, or poor Iraqis may not at all seek our approach to happiness.

In many cultures, individual liberty is not a strength but an offense. The highest value is social harmony, not personal freedom. I have seen US managers completely alienate and demotivate whole teams outside the west by doing a lot of well-intentioned individual recognition - even the recognized ones no longer wanted to work with that manager.

Absent a completely crushed Japan, total dependent South Korea and Taiwan, there is not a great history of the west exporting its values to other significant cultures.

China, India, Russsia, the middle east and Africa are unlikely to embrace what we call freedom in the way we think of it. This blind spot makes it hard for us to form an effective engagement strategy with these folks. We like our story and rally like minds (how often are the UK and Australia part of our coalition of the willing) - but we need to adapt our view significantly to find a global peace where we accept everyone doesn't look like us.

I am not saying we are wrong in our beliefs, just that we don't always do a good job of seeing how our core values don't always fit others - and that cultural fit is essential for nation-state stability.

 

[Irrelevant]

An old, but good article about Putin & how he became what he is today: https://www.politico.com/magazine/s...ck-dnc-clinton-election-2016-cold-war-214532/

That's a good one, though it paints a different picture than some of the vids/podcasts posted earlier

 

[VikingsGuy]

by “traditional news” I meant in the traditional Russian sense: state controlled.



I’m starting to pick up some strong Mussolini/Gaddafi vibes from this whole Putin situation. Not saying he is going to be met with a firing squad, but someone like him going down at the hands of his own people would not be unprecedented by any means.

I am sure I am missing some examples, but I am having a hard time thinking of a large industrialized nation falling to a popular revolt in the last 75 years where the military did not step aside or actually support it. If Putin goes it will because the power structure under him (oligarchs and generals) makes the change and credits the people, but not literally be the people fending off tanks in Moscow.

 

[Deleted member 16014]

For Putin, yes. For a new leader, I think it makes their job easier. “That was some crazy shit that last guy got us into, and this sucks- let’s get the hell out of Ukraine and get the good stuff we all like back.”

I think this may turn into their Vietnam or Iraq in a sense. That or the Russian people are way crazier than I thought and Putin or a successor doubles down and this gets way worse. Coin flip.

You can probably tell I’ve played a lot of Goldeneye 007 in my day, I’m basically an expert on Russian military strategy.

Proximity mines in the Complex = my childhood

 

[Treeshark]

We played that game so many times that if you died once in multiplayer, the game was essentially over.

We all knew where the character would reappear (there was a sequence of locations) and we all could get to that spot before it reappeared. It was kind of disgusting actually.