Ukraine / Russia

[JT88]

I think we (I include myself) are so immersed in our individual liberty/freedom narrative and origin story that we can struggle to see why poor Chinese, poor Russians, or poor Iraqis may not at all seek our approach to happiness.

"People settle for a level of despair they can tolerate and call it happiness." -Kierkegaard

 

[Handlebar]

A popular uprising against Putin + military + state police 0%. But popular uprising giving cause/cover to military or oligarch to reset the kremlin on a more path more conducive to enjoying their billions - plausible.

I would have thought that there was likely some level of buy in from those guys. It would be interesting to look at money flows and see what they were doing 3-9 months out.

 

[VikingsGuy]

You know things have gotten bad when Erdogan is the cool calm voice of reason in the room trying to talk a country out of seeking the glory of a past empire . . .

 

[VikingsGuy]

I would have thought that there was likely some level of buy in from those guys. It would be interesting to look at money flows and see what they were doing 3-9 months out.

Current thinking is that the oligarchs and China were told he was going to rattle west and see what they would give him, but none expected actual war.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Looks like the CITGO six have been released… finally

Two Americans, including one member of the 'CITGO6,' released from prison in Venezuela

At least one American member of the so-called CITGO 6 has been released from prison in Venezuela, a lawyer assisting several of the CITGO 6 and a spokesman from a Venezuelan nongovernmental organization that's providing legal assistance to prisoners in the country both told CNN.

amp.cnn.com

Background

Four years later, imprisoned oil executives remain pawns in a US-Venezuela standoff | CNN

The phone connection between a Venezuelan prison cell and Houston, Texas, crackles and fades.

www.cnn.com

@Big Fin specific example of why I’m a bit skeptical about being able to ‘turn on the taps’ in Venezuela… they absolutely need US expertise to produce their oil, and I would imagine not many folks are willing to take that risk. Also skeptical about whether Maduro is the lesser evil.

 

[noharleyyet]

Strange bedfellows in desperate times gents. Tough times to be a speechwriter.

 

[Handlebar]

You know things have gotten bad when Erdogan is the cool calm voice of reason in the room trying to talk a country out of seeking the glory of a past empire . . .

View attachment 214772

There have been some reports that Erdogan has suggested that trade between Turkey and Russia could continue using rubles, yuan or gold.

 

[VikingsGuy]

There have been some reports that Erdogan has suggested that trade between Turkey and Russia could continue using rubles, yuan or gold.

Maybe Putin and Erdogan agree to split Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan and call it a day. It would be very 1939.

 

[Rhcuam]

Sounds like the United States/Poland /Ukrainian Jet deal has been table.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Sounds like the United States/Poland /Ukrainian Jet deal has been table.

Yup - no way US triggers broader war with fighter planes at this time . When first proposed it was proposed that Poland would give fighters to Ukraine and US would cover Polish airspace during loan (which we would do under NATO rules anyway) and we would give them replacement planes for any that were destroyed in Ukraine. But Poland wanted the added coverage of giving them to the US and having them fly out of Germany. US and Germany said no. And how would this be any different than US and Germany flying their own planes? Essentially a weak ruse turned into a stupid ruse and fell apart.

 

[Rhcuam]

Yup - no way US triggers broader war with fighter planes at this time . When first proposed it was proposed that Poland would give fighters to Ukraine and US would cover Polish airspace during loan (which we would do under NATO rules anyway) and we would give them replacement planes for any that were destroyed in Ukraine. But Poland wanted the added coverage of giving them to the US and having them fly out of Germany. US and Germany said no. And how would this be any different than US and Germany flying their own planes? Essentially a weak ruse turned into a stupid ruse and fell apart.

Agree, it was very poorly thought out and quite frankly borderline crazy shell game.

 

[MinnesotaHunter]

Yup - no way US triggers broader war with fighter planes at this time . When first proposed it was proposed that Poland would give fighters to Ukraine and US would cover Polish airspace during loan (which we would do under NATO rules anyway) and we would give them replacement planes for any that were destroyed in Ukraine. But Poland wanted the added coverage of giving them to the US and having them fly out of Germany. US and Germany said no. And how would this be any different than US and Germany flying their own planes? Essentially a weak ruse turned into a stupid ruse and fell apart.

IMO, I cannot see how Russia would have cared how this happened. Diplomatic mincing around, only matters to diplomats....

 

[VikingsGuy]

IMO, I cannot see how Russia would have cared how this happened. Diplomatic mincing around, only matters to diplomats....

Maybe (a weak maybe) if it had been Finland, Sweden, Switzerland or Moldova (non-NATO) doing it you might have some cover, but Poland is NATO and likely Putin views all of NATO as being directed by US. Also, frankly having Poland involved is probably worse than just straight-up US flying from western Germany, as Putin's big gripe is former east block countries being used against him. It would fit his narrative perfectly back home.

 

[Irrelevant]

Maybe (a weak maybe) if it had been Finland, Sweden, Switzerland or Moldova (non-NATO) doing it you might have some cover, but Poland is NATO and likely Putin views all of NATO as being directed by US.

Or maybe it just shouldn't have been broadcast. My thought is that something like that could still happen, but all parties have to deny it publicly.

 

[Trial153]

One thing I hope is that isn’t an opportunity doesn’t end up going to waste. While peace and a cease fire is great thing, if Putin remains in power we are just kicking the can down the road. I don’t believe we can keep allowing the level of interference in our elections and I am sure other western democracies elections that we have seen.

 

[LWC55]

One thing I hope is that isn’t an opportunity doesn’t end up going to waste. While peace and a cease fire is great thing, if Putin remains in power we are just kicking the can down the road. I don’t believe we can keep allowing the level of interference in our elections and I am sure other western democracies elections that we have seen.

Who replaces Putin?

 

[Trial153]

Who replaces Putin?

At this point does it really matter? Anything that breaks his strangle hold on Russia is good thing as it will give the Russian people a chance, albeit a slim one to retake control of their government.

 

[MinnesotaHunter]

Maybe (a weak maybe) if it had been Finland, Sweden, Switzerland or Moldova (non-NATO) doing it you might have some cover, but Poland is NATO and likely Putin views all of NATO as being directed by US. Also, frankly having Poland involved is probably worse than just straight-up US flying from western Germany, as Putin's big gripe is former east block countries being used against him. It would fit his narrative perfectly back home.

Google "Russian A2AD Strategy" I tried to find some open source that explains why these jets aren't some kind of silver bullet. Russian tactics don't rely on air supremacy (AC centric) but rather denial (primarily ground based systems). Unless the Russian radars are broken/disrupted; which would certainly be a huge escalation, these jets won't make a significant contribution...

 

[44hunter45]

He is a sociopath not a genius.

The really dangerous sociopaths are geniuses.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Who replaces Putin?

A more reserved lapdog of the oligarchs/general who would put him there.