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The Rinella Effect

FREAK said:
I do know the last thing I want to do while I’m hunting is haul a camera around the mountains videoing myself talking like a slow cowboy.
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I generally agree, but I will say I bought some decent amateur camera equipment a couple years ago and started filming hunts and doing a little editing in the off season and I really enjoy being able to look back on them. I DO NOT post these hunts publicly on any social media - as I have zero interest in adding to the dumpster fire of social media hunt channels/content.
 
mmw194287 said:
I downloaded the relevant spreadsheets to play devil's advocate and look at how bonus points have affected draw odds for the buffer zone over the past two years relative to the "Rinella effect."

The ten max bonus point holders who applied for the buffer zone had a collective 4,840 chances to draw. Last year those ten individuals had 4,410 chances to draw. So their names went in the hat another 430 times. Those with one fewer than max had 3,087 chances to draw. Last year those same seven individuals had 2,800 chances to draw. So their names went in the hat another 287 times. So the bonus points of those two groups alone expanded the pool by 717 chances in one year.

If we look at the cohort of Buffer Zone applicants who had two or more points in 2023 (i.e., the top 20 tiers of point holders), there are actually 7 fewer applicants in 2024 even while the overall number of applicants increased by 252. We could have hundreds of people jump in with 0, 1, even 2 points, and it wouldn't make any sort of meaningful difference in the odds.

The increase in chances (+717) among the top two tiers of point holders (only seventeen individuals) in just the last year exceeded the collective growth in chances (+504) among the bottom three tiers over the past two years (during which period of time the number of applicants in those three point tiers increased by 50+%).

Here's another one: In 2024, you'd need 17 bonus points to have odds better than a straight 5 (tags) in 1310 (apps) draw. You also would've needed 17 for the equivalent odds in 2022... even with the number of applicants increasing by 65% between 2022 and 2024. It'll likely bump up to 18 points next year if trends continue and again every few years after that.

My amateur interpretation is that even with a big swell in the number of low point applicants, the situation hasn't changed much for those at the top of the pile. For those at the bottom of the pile, the situation looks horrible....but that's because they're up against 70,000 "chances" in a pool with 1310 applicants, not because the pool of applicants jumped in the past two years.

In 2024, applicants with ten points or fewer made up 1,110 of the 1,310 total (84.7%). They had 21,999 chances out of the 70,300 (31.3%).

Applicants with 18 or more points made up 57 of the 1,310 total (4.3%). They had 22,167 chances out of the 70,300 (31.5%).

The tail will never wag the dog with this stuff. Big point holders are the only thing that matters in the big picture, and they don't seem to be "influenced" as easily.

IN FULL DISCLOSURE I WOULDN'T HAVE GONE TO ALL THIS TROUBLE IF I'D DRAWN MY MOUNTAIN GOAT TAG. I WAS SUPPOSED TO DRAW IT. IT WAS MY YEAR. I SHOULD JUST BE HAPPY AND LOOKING AT MAPS AND PICTURES OF BIG BOONER BILLIES INSTEAD OF EXCEL SPREADSHEETS. CERTAINLY IT WILL HAPPEN NEXT YEAR. HOW COULD IT NOT? UNTHINKABLE.
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1716309128673.png
 
brockel said:
Even our area which isn’t that great of Turkey hunting has been over ran with Turkey hunters this year. Looked like deer season here
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Doing as much for your springtime loneliness as his unselfish advocacy for good causes. Santa will also bring you a cookbook for your friendly guidance to all visiting turkey hunters.
 
mmw194287 said:
I downloaded the relevant spreadsheets to play devil's advocate and look at how bonus points have affected draw odds for the buffer zone over the past two years relative to the "Rinella effect."

The ten max bonus point holders who applied for the buffer zone had a collective 4,840 chances to draw. Last year those ten individuals had 4,410 chances to draw. So their names went in the hat another 430 times. Those with one fewer than max had 3,087 chances to draw. Last year those same seven individuals had 2,800 chances to draw. So their names went in the hat another 287 times. So the bonus points of those two groups alone expanded the pool by 717 chances in one year.

If we look at the cohort of Buffer Zone applicants who had two or more points in 2023 (i.e., the top 20 tiers of point holders), there are actually 7 fewer applicants in 2024 even while the overall number of applicants increased by 252. We could have hundreds of people jump in with 0, 1, even 2 points, and it wouldn't make any sort of meaningful difference in the odds.

The increase in chances (+717) among the top two tiers of point holders (only seventeen individuals) in just the last year exceeded the collective growth in chances (+504) among the bottom three tiers over the past two years (during which period of time the number of applicants in those three point tiers increased by 50+%).

Here's another one: In 2024, you'd need 17 bonus points to have odds better than a straight 5 (tags) in 1310 (apps) draw. You also would've needed 17 for the equivalent odds in 2022... even with the number of applicants increasing by 65% between 2022 and 2024. It'll likely bump up to 18 points next year if trends continue and again every few years after that.

My amateur interpretation is that even with a big swell in the number of low point applicants, the situation hasn't changed much for those at the top of the pile. For those at the bottom of the pile, the situation looks horrible....but that's because they're up against 70,000 "chances" in a pool with 1310 applicants, not because the pool of applicants jumped in the past two years.

In 2024, applicants with ten points or fewer made up 1,110 of the 1,310 total (84.7%). They had 21,999 chances out of the 70,300 (31.3%).

Applicants with 18 or more points made up 57 of the 1,310 total (4.3%). They had 22,167 chances out of the 70,300 (31.5%).

The tail will never wag the dog with this stuff. Big point holders are the only thing that matters in the big picture, and they don't seem to be "influenced" as easily.

IN FULL DISCLOSURE I WOULDN'T HAVE GONE TO ALL THIS TROUBLE IF I'D DRAWN MY MOUNTAIN GOAT TAG. I WAS SUPPOSED TO DRAW IT. IT WAS MY YEAR. I SHOULD JUST BE HAPPY AND LOOKING AT MAPS AND PICTURES OF BIG BOONER BILLIES INSTEAD OF EXCEL SPREADSHEETS. CERTAINLY IT WILL HAPPEN NEXT YEAR. HOW COULD IT NOT? UNTHINKABLE.
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@wllm , @AvidIndoorsman must have changed his handle again.....
 
brockel said:
Even our area which isn’t that great of Turkey hunting has been over ran with Turkey hunters this year. Looked like deer season here
Click to expand...
Now that I've cooled down.🤣
My issue isn't with NR hunters, or guys hunting based on information they gather.
They area is no secret, and has tolerated locals, other residents, and NR who take a stab at a location under radar. But for Rinella to do an episode which spells it out to the internet is not something I will forgive. It's not like there is a lottery to hunt turkeys, consequently the place is getting overrun. Given the decline in turkey populations in parts of the Southeast and Midwest it's only natural that hunters seek out other options. Then you have word of mouth.
It's a damn shame and totally preventable....but greed and ego come first. Anything goes for an episode.
As a side note, my buddy who hunts Long Pines every year texted me a few weeks ago to communicate he has never seen such rampant disregard of travel restrictions by non residents as this year.
Friggin free for all.
This State is quickly declining.
 
Hem said:
Now that I've cooled down.🤣
My issue isn't with NR hunters, or guys hunting based on information they gather.
They area is no secret, and has tolerated locals, other residents, and NR who take a stab at a location under radar. But for Rinella to do an episode which spells it out to the internet is not something I will forgive. It's not like there is a lottery to hunt turkeys, consequently the place is getting overrun. Given the decline in turkey populations in parts of the Southeast and Midwest it's only natural that hunters seek out other options. Then you have word of mouth.
It's a damn shame and totally preventable....but greed and ego come first. Anything goes for an episode.
As a side note, my buddy who hunts Long Pines every year texted me a few weeks ago to communicate he has never seen such rampant disregard of travel restrictions by non residents as this year.
Friggin free for all.
This State is quickly declining.
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If you're traveling more than 6 hrs to hunt a bird you can buy a much tastier version of for $0.79 a lb, I have to question your intelligence
 
Bigjay73 said:
If you're traveling more than 6 hrs to hunt a bird you can buy a much tastier version of for $0.79 a lb, I have to question your intelligence
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bro, it's about the pictures. the beautiful low rising sun glinting through the spread fan of a dead jake. then everyone knows you're not only a badass backcountry turkey hunter, but also artsy and soulful.
 
Bigjay73 said:
If you're traveling more than 6 hrs to hunt a bird you can buy a much tastier version of for $0.79 a lb, I have to question your intelligence
Click to expand...
Do you apply that logic to everything you do? Or is your comment just a snide effort to evoke a response?😉
No matter to me.
But if you can convince all the NR to smarten up and stay clear of Montana I'll invite you over for turkey dinner.
 
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