Tariffs and Potential Inflation

[88man]

In the decade before covid, Uncle Sam ran very large deficits and carried a ton of accumulated debt. Inflation was very tame for the period.

Friedman, like nearly every economist, was right sometimes and wrong at other times.

imo, the recent inflationary period was a mixture of broken supply chains, government stimulus money, and pent up demand coming out of covid. How you want to split up the blame, that's subject to each person's perspective, likely.

You forgot to mention energy costs increased 20 to 50 % . Once energy went up with the attack on fossil fuels in this country all costs increased across the board.

 

[406dn]

You forgot to mention energy costs increased 20 to 50 % . Once energy went up with the attack on fossil fuels in this country all costs increased across the board.

Two things.

If you remember crude prices were below zero as covid took hold. There was literally no spare room in storage for the crude, as the demand crashed for gas and diesel. That led to oil producers reducing production as much as was feasible. I'll include that in the broken supply chain problems the world faced.

Presently we are producing more crude and natural gas than at any time in our history. It is one of the things most responsible for the US's more robust recovery from covid than most any other country. The price for diesel today in the small town I live in was 3.28/gallon this morning. That price is more or less what it was pre covid. One could argue it is less, since the dollar is worth less than pre covid.

 

[Bonasababy]

No one wants to wait until Thanksgiving to find out who won the election. Probably exaggerating, but long drawn out vote counting plants the seeds of distrust in our elections.

That distrust ship has long ago sailed. People can't be persuaded by facts on it anymore.

 

[Bonasababy]

When you have a runoff, the candidates throw more money out to get elected. Happens often in Georgia.

How Georgia’s Senate Runoff Will Work (Published 2022)

The race between Senator Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, will be decided on Dec. 6.

search.app

Still not understanding you, but maybe we aren't talking apples to apples. There is NO second election in the instant runoff system. The election has been held already--once--all that's left is the counting of votes until a winner is declared. So maybe you are talking about something else?

As others have pointed out this process DOES take longer to produce a winner. From what I understand that might add a day or two though, not weeks--but perhaps those in the few states that have it can enlighten me on that.

Edit--slow on the draw--I see you used the Warnock election a few years back (I think) as an example. That's different, again the instant in instant run off stands for one election--votes keep getting counted until a winner is declared. There is no second election--unless by some miracle a winner is never declared. Seems unlikely!

 

[mevertsen]

Two things.

If you remember crude prices were below zero as covid took hold. There was literally no spare room in storage for the crude, as the demand crashed for gas and diesel. That led to oil producers reducing production as much as was feasible. I'll include that in the broken supply chain problems the world faced.

Presently we are producing more crude and natural gas than at any time in our history. It is one of the things most responsible for the US's more robust recovery from covid than most any other country. The price for diesel today in the small town I live in was 3.28/gallon this morning. That price is more or less what it was pre covid. One could argue it is less, since the dollar is worth less than pre covid.

Fuel prices have been dropping steadily here in Northeastern Nevada over the last couple weeks as well.

Agree certainly cheaper than pre- covid on a dollar value basis.

Diesel at $3.15. Regular at $3.01 to $3.11.

 

[Bonasababy]

I got swamp rat friends across the spectrum. It’s nice to avoid anyone’s bubble.

Me too--but those on one side are "quislings" or "RINO's" these days. They consider themselves still hopeful spectrum members but the party has ostracized them.

Helps to know some who have been there for all the changes in norms in recent decades.

 

[Bonasababy]

Fuel prices have been dropping steadily here in Northeastern Nevada over the last couple weeks as well.

Agree certainly cheaper than pre- covid on a dollar value basis.

Diesel at $3.15. Regular at $3.01 to $3.11.

Regular down into the 2.50's at Costco by me recently.

 

[Sytes]

Person #1: "So who did you vote for?"
Person #2: " Not your business".

Person #2 on public forums...

 

[BigHornRam]

Still not understanding you, but maybe we aren't talking apples to apples. There is NO second election in the instant runoff system. The election has been held already--once--all that's left is the counting of votes until a winner is declared. So maybe you are talking about something else?

As others have pointed out this process DOES take longer to produce a winner. From what I understand that might add a day or two though, not weeks--but perhaps those in the few states that have it can enlighten me on that.

Edit--slow on the draw--I see you used the Warnock election a few years back (I think) as an example. That's different, again the instant in instant run off stands for one election--votes keep getting counted until a winner is declared. There is no second election--unless by some miracle a winner is never declared. Seems unlikely!

The discussion started with me mentioning Montana CI 126 and CI 127 went down in flames this election cycle. Apparently you do not know much about these initiatives. Here is a snippet to help inform you.

"Taken together, Constitutional Initiatives 126 and 127 would amend the Montana Constitution to alter the face of even-year elections from start to finish. CI-126 would jettison the state’s separate party June primaries in favor of a single multi-party primary ballot that would advance up to four candidates to November general elections, while CI-127 would require a majority vote of more than 50% to give a candidate a general election victory. The state Legislature would be responsible for adopting rules on how to handle a no-majority situation."

You still haven't answered who financed these initiatives.

 

[Beignet]

You still haven't answered who financed these initiatives.

You can go to a website called Open Secrets and look up the donors to a group Montanas for Election Reform. That was the organization behind these initiatives. The two groups who donated over $1m are called Article IV and the Unite America PAC. Both of which describe themselves as non or bipartisan. Both these groups, as well as Montanans for Election Reform have affiliate politicians from all political stripes.

Took me all of five minutes to track down this this info. It’s a real stinker of a canard to speculate that these initiatives are anything more than efforts steer the ship back toward the righteous center and keep quacks out of office (see what I did there).

 

[INMT]

You can go to a website called Open Secrets and look up the donors to a group Montanas for Election Reform. That was the organization behind these initiatives. The two groups who donated over $1m are called Article IV and the Unite America PAC. Both of which describe themselves as non or bipartisan. Both these groups, as well as Montanans for Election Reform have affiliate politicians from all political stripes.

Took me all of five minutes to track down this this info. It’s a real stinker of a canard to speculate that these initiatives are anything more than efforts steer the ship back toward the righteous center and keep quacks out of office (see what I did there).

Thanks for posting. I know one of the folks behind Montanans for Election Reform well. He is a lifelong Republican, just not the MAGA movement (I’m sure bighorn will call him a rino. Such bullchit.) Non partisan elections don’t even matter in MT, look at the recent judicial elections, everyone with half a brain knew how they tilted. I would’ve liked to see them pass, I’m not scared for one party to lose power like some are. I’m also not a “Conservative refugee” IMO the phuckin worst of the worst. Completely changing the electorate of Montana with a chit eating grin and absolutely no clue about the politics of the state.

 

[Beignet]

Thanks for posting. I know one of the folks behind Montanans for Election Reform well. He is a lifelong Republican, just not the MAGA movement (I’m sure bighorn will call him a rino. Such bullchit.) Non partisan elections don’t even matter in MT, look at the recent judicial elections, everyone with half a brain knew how they tilted. I would’ve liked to see them pass, I’m not scared for one party to lose power like some are. I’m also not a “Conservative refugee” IMO the phuckin worst of the worst. Completely changing the electorate of Montana with a chit eating grin and absolutely no clue about the politics of the state.

From what I understood these initiatives were primarily driven by old guard Montana Republicans. I don’t believe the goal was to even shift the balance from one party to another. I’m of the opinion that these initiatives would have tempered candidates toward the center, given voters higher quality candidates, and a little more agency in the vote than having to choose whoever has the letter they like next to their name.

And yeah, it’s always funny that there’s this myth that hoards of latte & yoga pants people in Missoula and Bozeman have some deeply organized plot to impart an exhaustive change to the politics of the state. I don’t think it’s those folks what done it.