Tariffs and Potential Inflation

[VikingsGuy]

Not me, I'm living for the day Oprah graces me with an attaboy...

Screw the attaboy, just give me the damn car

 

[VikingsGuy]

Someone PM'ed me the analogy of playing chess with pigeons. You have confirmed. I'm out. Maybe we can revisit in 60 days.

View attachment 350174

This is the pic I have in my head when folks suggest Trump is playing 3D chess

 

[VikingsGuy]

Not sure that will ever happen at least not soon--need one side to totally crash--and if it's the right side the media that routinely lie in support of them need to be shunned as well.

Both sides have captive and misleading media - no needs to pick sides on this clear problem - both have to go.

 

[Forkyfinder]

This thread, in a gif

 

[noharleyyet]

This is the pic I have in my head when folks suggest Trump is playing 3D chess

Not much of an allusion when checkers is apparently sufficient...remind me again just whom that "pidgin" currently represents.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Not much of an allusion when checkers is apparently sufficient...remind me again just whom that "pidgin" currently represents.

Self evident



(This is me using my noharleyyet trained genAI bot to respond )

 

[VikingsGuy]

View attachment 350177
This thread, in a gif

Best post in the last 10 pages

 

[BigHornRam]

Could you provide we unwashed with the composite of an insider please...

Soon to become an insider. This model comes with a grease pan to keep the mess to a minimum.

Google Image Result for https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1846245214949679104/F4ZwJJ_1_400x400.jpg

 

[VikingsGuy]

Could you provide we unwashed with the composite of an insider please...

 

[BigHornRam]

View attachment 350179

That's an extinct species in Washington.

 

[fmnjr]

All of this is IMO.
Most economic forecast come from economic models. As the saying goes, all models are wrong, some are useful. Every model says these tariffs increase prices to the US consumer. Only way to look at it is either the seller eats some of the increase in cost (resulting in lower profits) or it is passed on to the buyer. For those things with high substitutability, maybe the consumer can just move to the other cheaper good.

I am not sure the question you asked is the only way to think about it. The question is will Americans notice the inflation? A good example to study is US tariffs/duties on Canadian soft lumber. It has a long history, beginning in 1982, and a lot of administrations have tried to adjust it in some way. Then ask if any US consumer would cite the tariff as an driver in the increase in housing prices. So yeah, the price of a good might go up, but the consumer might not see it directly or be unable to isolate and instead will blame something else.

Broad, large tariffs are going to be noticed = inflation. Smaller, more narrowly directed tariffs might not be. Right now the stock market is betting that all that pre-election talk was just talk for the sake of future bargaining. However, the bond market will be the key thing to watch becasue a lot of those pre-election promises are inflationary.

The noted economist, Milton Friedman, makes a solid case that the greatest inflation in our economy comes from one source, government spending.

Economist Milton Friedman famously stated, "Inflation is made in Washington," attributing the root cause to excessive government spending and money creation. His insight remains relevant today as debates intensify over fiscal policies fueling inflationary pressures.Oct 13, 2024

 

[Sytes]

Do we get to have mindless followers on HT? ‘Cuz I could use a few. A sh*t-ton of leaves in the yard could use raking by a couple of motivated minions.

There's plenty, as is evident.

 

[VikingsGuy]

There's plenty, as is evident.

Lighten up Francis

 

[brymoore]

The noted economist, Milton Friedman, makes a solid case that the greatest inflation in our economy comes from one source, government spending.

Economist Milton Friedman famously stated, "Inflation is made in Washington," attributing the root cause to excessive government spending and money creation. His insight remains relevant today as debates intensify over fiscal policies fueling inflationary pressures.Oct 13, 2024

Friedman believed in free markets with no tariffs.

This crowd won’t agree with Friedman.

 

[VikingsGuy]

This crowd won’t understand Friedman.

I will assume they do/could, but plenty of folks are on the losing side of Friedman's markets and fair for them to object. Let's stop saying others are too stupid.

 

[fmnjr]

Friedman believed in free markets with no tariffs.

This crowd won’t understand Friedman.

There's always hope for the lost.

 

[406dn]

The noted economist, Milton Friedman, makes a solid case that the greatest inflation in our economy comes from one source, government spending.

Economist Milton Friedman famously stated, "Inflation is made in Washington," attributing the root cause to excessive government spending and money creation. His insight remains relevant today as debates intensify over fiscal policies fueling inflationary pressures.Oct 13, 2024

In the decade before covid, Uncle Sam ran very large deficits and carried a ton of accumulated debt. Inflation was very tame for the period.

Friedman, like nearly every economist, was right sometimes and wrong at other times.

imo, the recent inflationary period was a mixture of broken supply chains, government stimulus money, and pent up demand coming out of covid. How you want to split up the blame, that's subject to each person's perspective, likely.

 

[Sytes]

Lighten up Francis

 

[Sytes]

Some interesting takeaways from CNN regarding Biden's enhanced previous Trump tariffs:

"Today’s finalized tariff increases will target the harmful policies and practices of the People’s Republic of China that continue to impact American workers and businesses,” US Trade Representative Katherine Tai said in a press release."

Many Democrats and Republicans agree that Beijing has long used unfair trading practices to make Chinese-made goods more competitive.

Since 2018, Chinese electric vehicle imports have increased from $7.2 million to $388.8 million – but were only 2% of all US electric vehicle imports, according to the US International Trade Commission.

Still, US automakers fear Chinese-made electric vehicles, which are sold for as little as $10,000, could end up flooding the US market.

“China now produces 70 percent of the world’s electric cars – jeopardizing productive investments elsewhere,” USTR wrote in its recent report.

Steel and aluminum trade groups and unions also welcomed the news after Biden first said in April he was considering a tariff hike on steel during a speech at the United Steelworkers headquarters in Pittsburgh. But some analysts say the move could have little impact on the US steel industry because China accounts for a very small percentage of US steel imports.

****

Of course - different story regarding Trump's tariffs though to each his/her own. It is CNN after all.

 

[VikingsGuy]

The problem is that it is 40 yrs too late. You have to raise tariffs while you still have a full scale viable industry/supply chain. Otherwise it is just an inflation inducing, recession flirting, tit for tat.