Tariffs and Potential Inflation

[SAJ-99]

Do you have the source on this info? "And we never produced more oil and natural gas than we have under Biden."

United States produces more crude oil than any country, ever - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

 

[Bonasababy]

Do you have the source on this info? "And we never produced more oil and natural gas than we have under Biden."

Biden’s oil boom

How US oil production hit a record under Biden despite climate policies

www.reuters.com

 

[noharleyyet]

 

[BigHornRam]

I often try to use historical comparisons with folks who just don't understand the reality of taxes and where we are. "How would you like to go back to the tax rates we had under Reagan?"

Reality-they were much HIGHER under Reagan, especially on the truly wealthy!

I don't know where you come up with this stuff.

Reagan tax cuts - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

One thing is for certain, I don't think we the people have improved on our understanding of taxes cuts since 1986.

"At the time, people weren't substantially informed about the tax cuts, as an ABC News Poll in September 1986 showed that 63% of Americans didn't know enough about the Tax Reform Act of 1986 to say if it was good or bad.[3]"

 

[Forkyfinder]

I figure Trumps pick and then his tariff announcement are an example of what we will see in markets--again. WILD fluctuation, high volatility. The pick was loved by the markets which then headed down sharply after his tariff announcement. Just needs to keep his mouth shut but we all know that's an impossible task. Taxes will be interesting--his tax cuts expire and they led to a sharp increase in the national debt--continuing them and increasing any of them--which he is widely expected to do--greatly ramp up the debt. Best way to start easing the debt is to let them expire but that won't happen.

I often try to use historical comparisons with folks who just don't understand the reality of taxes and where we are. "How would you like to go back to the tax rates we had under Reagan?"

Reality-they were much HIGHER under Reagan, especially on the truly wealthy!

U.S. Federal Government Tax Revenue

The federal government generates tax revenue through sources like income and corporate taxes. Learn how much tax revenue the U.S. generates each year.

www.thebalancemoney.com

Show me where the federal government had a decrease in revenues?

 

[SAJ-99]

I figure Trumps pick and then his tariff announcement are an example of what we will see in markets--again. WILD fluctuation, high volatility. The pick was loved by the markets which then headed down sharply after his tariff announcement. Just needs to keep his mouth shut but we all know that's an impossible task. Taxes will be interesting--his tax cuts expire and they led to a sharp increase in the national debt--continuing them and increasing any of them--which he is widely expected to do--greatly ramp up the debt. Best way to start easing the debt is to let them expire but that won't happen.

I often try to use historical comparisons with folks who just don't understand the reality of taxes and where we are. "How would you like to go back to the tax rates we had under Reagan?"

Reality-they were much HIGHER under Reagan, especially on the truly wealthy!

The market isn't taking him seriously. It just isn't. Is it maybe overly optimistic to the point of complacency? maybe. We will know soon. Right now he is just seeking attention.

The new Mexico president just got the Trump Jedi Mind Trick. He threatened day-1 tariffs and demands them to do things that they are already doing. When she calls and say "we are already doing as much as we can", he declares that she agreed to the demands. She was like "WTF just happened?".

You have to admit that Trump is a master at controlling the messaging (and democrats absolutely suck at it). I am sure absolutely zero could change and he could convince a lot of people the economy is great and it is all because of him. The truth doesn't matter in messaging. Just keep saying it and never admit you are wrong. Another example, the threat to BRICS countries if they use a reserve currency other than the USD. 1) talks on moving away from the USD have been going on for 50 years, 2) there is an alternative to the USD (SDRs) but no one uses it 3) starting every negotiation by punching your "friend" in the face and demanding he remain your friend is probably not a good long-term strategy.

The problem for those in the administration doing the work is Reality. The Treasury has to refi/sell almost $7T in bonds in 2025. Those BRICS countries are potential buyers. Bessent will soon realize there is only so much he can do. They have to talk the market into buying this debt to keep rates from going up and constraining growth. But the plan is to continue to "grow your way out" of the debt problem.

Right now the playbook looks the same as last time -tax cuts, deregulation, pro-growth. Reality says it may be impossible to grow the US economy at a rate above 2-3% real. So maybe it all comes down to messaging.

 

[Sytes]

The market isn't taking him seriously.

Some people drank bleach...

********

Reality, Trump pushes heavy and his strategy worked last go around with USMCA. If you want $7 and currently at $5 - push for $10.

 

[Nick87]

. I am sure absolutely zero could change and he could convince a lot of people the economy is great and it is all because of him

It would be interesting to see that, it didn't work out for Biden so well.

 

[Forkyfinder]

You have to admit that Trump is a master at controlling the messaging (and democrats absolutely suck at it).

@SAJ-99 you serious?

Most news/media repeat dem talking points in mass.

 

[jryoung]

One thing is for certain, I don't think we the people have improved on our understanding of taxes cuts since 1986.

"At the time, people weren't substantially informed about the tax cuts, as an ABC News Poll in September 1986 showed that 63% of Americans didn't know enough about the Tax Reform Act of 1986 to say if it was good or bad.[3]"

This is a great read if you ever want to get a glimpse of how major policy takes place as it relates to the 1986 Tax Act.

https://www.amazon.com/Showdown-Gucci-Gulch-Lawmakers-Lobbyists/dp/0394758110

 

[BigHornRam]

@SAJ-99 you serious?

Most news/media repeat dem talking points in mass.

Yeah. But those talking points absolutely sucked!

 

[SAJ-99]

U.S. Federal Government Tax Revenue

The federal government generates tax revenue through sources like income and corporate taxes. Learn how much tax revenue the U.S. generates each year.

www.thebalancemoney.com

Show me where the federal government had a decrease in revenues?

You can looks this stuff up.
Total Treasury revenue
2016 $4.27T
2017 $4.24T
2018 $4.16T

It would be interesting to see that, it didn't work out for Biden so well.

Like I said, Democrats are horrible at it.

@SAJ-99 you serious?

Most news/media repeat dem talking points in mass.

Yep. Completely serious. It won't be accepted by anyone parroting "liberal media bias", but comparing how Trump I admin controlled messaging and Biden admin controlled messaging it is clear there is no comparison. Trump is a master of the media, and the media (any and all) loves him because he brings views. Any claim of bias is made against those that point out his BS. Even Fox took hits from him. The reality is that Americans get most of their information from places that aren't even media.

 

[noharleyyet]

You can looks this stuff up.
Total Treasury revenue
2016 $4.27T
2017 $4.24T
2018 $4.16T

Like I said, Democrats are horrible at it.

Yep. Completely serious. It won't be accepted by anyone parroting "liberal media bias", but comparing how Trump I admin controlled messaging and Biden admin controlled messaging it is clear there is no comparison. Trump is a master of the media, and the media (any and all) loves him because he brings views. Any claim of bias is made against those that point out his BS. Even Fox took hits from him. The reality is that Americans get most of their information from places that aren't even media.

Point taken but pointing out biased media BS is also a fact.

 

[SAJ-99]

Point taken but pointing out biased media BS is also a fact.

Maybe. Perception is reality for most people.

 

[BigHornRam]

Maybe. Perception is reality for most people.

Like total treasury revenue was up 7% in 2019? Guess it depends on who is reporting the whole story.

 

[Nick87]

Like I said, Democrats are horrible at it.

A for effort.

 

[SAJ-99]

Like total treasury revenue was up 7% in 2019? Guess it depends on who is reporting the whole story.

No argument from me on that. But that wasn’t the question. The amount of money goes up every year. It’s called inflation. He just wanted proof that tax revenues collected went down.Hopefully he is satisfied. Obviously you are not, but that isn’t a surprise. Again.

 

[Sytes]

China. Sheep led by the media of your poison. How dare U.S. counter China's higher tariffs on U.S. goods!

 

[BigHornRam]

No argument from me on that. But that wasn’t the question. The amount of money goes up every year. It’s called inflation. He just wanted proof that tax revenues collected went down.Hopefully he is satisfied. Obviously you are not, but that isn’t a surprise. Again.

Based on this source, the years you reported down, were actually up slightly. They did go down in 2020 and 2023.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/200405/receipts-of-the-us-government-since-fiscal-year-2000/

 

[Sytes]

Add in China's dominance on our green energy present and future...