Point Creep realistic topping out number

[thusby]

I’m just hunting waterfowl until all the dummies realize they will never draw and buy a kayak… I got about 5 years left.

 

[Zim]

If I fail to draw long shots in AZ deer/sheep and WY deer/lope that will be ten consecutive years in 9 states without drawing in ANY random lotteries. I have drawn over those years, but exclusively in preference based systems. My 300 bonus points did me no good at all anywhere, despite several draws with 15% - 40% odds. How social media has changed the game. I often think back to my early years in the 90’s when I drew in random systems annually. 96 NM Valle Vidal elk first try. 97 Utah Book Cliffs elk first try. 98 NV 061 deer first try, 99 WY region G deer first try. Two WY lope tags first try. NM 45 Pecos elk first FIVE consecutive years. All with no points, Lol. And the list goes on. I even turned several 10% odds great tags back in. These are all pipe dreams now. Dried up for ten straight years despite 300+ points. That’s the power of the internet & liberal outfitter welfare.

C’mon Colorado elk. I’m in desperation mode. Trying to burn the first point I ever bought, back in 1996.

 

[Bluffgruff]

If I fail to draw long shots in AZ deer/sheep and WY deer/lope that will be ten consecutive years in 9 states without drawing in ANY random lotteries. I have drawn over those years, but exclusively in preference based systems. My 300 bonus points did me no good at all anywhere, despite several draws with 15% - 40% odds. How social media has changed the game. I often think back to my early years in the 90’s when I drew in random systems annually. 97 NM Valle Vidal elk first try. Utah Book Cliffs elk first try. WY region G deer first try. Two WY lope tags first try. NM 45 Pecos elk first FIVE consecutive years. All with no points, Lol. And the list goes on. I even turned several 10% odds great tags back in. These are all pipe dreams now. Dried up for ten straight years despite 300+ points. That’s the power of the internet & liberal outfitter welfare.

C’mon Colorado elk. I’m in desperation mode. Trying to burn the first point I ever bought, back in 1996.

Although I'm still participating and will until points are no longer a thing, it's time to burn everyone's points in a huge fire so that we're all on equal footing, since no one deserves a tag more than another person.

 

[Zim]

Although I'm still participating and will until points are no longer a thing, it's time to burn everyone's points in a huge fire so that we're all on equal footing, since no one deserves a tag more than another person.

You mean like landowners & outfitters too? I’d be all in for that. Have you written the legislatures?


I’d be fine with that if I got all my appl & lic money back plus interest. They have not done me any good anyway. And for the delusional ground floor newbies that think that would be the answer to their prayers for premium tags, they would be in for a big awakening. The same USUCS will appear in their emails either way. The good ole days are in the rear view mirror permanently, thanks to the masses. But am glad I got to experience 15 years of them, and a few more thanks to the preference systems remaining. Albeit cheapened lol. I’ll salvage something out of those.

 

[Bluffgruff]

You mean like landowners & outfitters too? I’d be all in for that. Have you written the legislatures?


I’d be fine with that if I got all my appl & lic money back plus interest. They have not done me any good anyway. And for the delusional ground floor newbies that think that would be the answer to their prayers for premium tags, they would be in for a big awakening. The same USUCS will appear in their emails either way. The good ole days are in the rear view mirror permanently, thanks to the masses. But am glad I got to experience 15 years of them, and a few more thanks to the preference systems remaining. Albeit cheapened lol. I’ll salvage something out of those.

I have made my position known to several state agencies.

Points were never advertised as an investment with no chance of being devalued, so I think we have to rip that bandaid off. Many people, myself included, will have to be okay with the personal monetary loss of completely discretionary dollars to allow fair participation for all comers.

 

[Big Fin]

These are interesting discussions to follow. Some quick facts show why this is the outcome any every time a state adopts a preference point program, or even a portion of their draw becomes a preference point draw (AZ 20%, UT 50%, CO 100%, WY 75%).

This year, just over 29K of the 150K non-residents with WY elk points even bothered to apply. So, given what we've seen in the last five years and with only 20% or the point holders actually applying for elk in WY this year, I doubt we will see any reduction in point creep whenever the other 80% decide to actually apply for a tag.

Colorado showed us how these trends go with preference point systems. Wyoming is just fifteen years behind CO, yet CO gives a lot more NR tags, thus rolling through the point layers way faster than WY will. So, Wyoming point creep after 30 years will likely be worse than CO was at 30 years.

UT only issues 280 tags and we have 120 years worth of applicants in the system, and only half of the NRs even apply for a tag while the other half buys a point every year. Same with Wyoming issuing 7,250 NR elk tags, yet they have 150K NRs in the elk system and only 20% apply for a tag and 80% buy another point.

Basic math answers the question of whether or not point creep has an end in sight. Maybe more applicants shift to point buying during economic slowdowns, but most will keep buying more points.

Folks have been buying points in these systems for 15-30 years. Some, but still not a large percentage, are now starting to burn their points. This was an expectation for those watching the pile of point buyers grow every year since the systems started. I, and I suspect most others who apply in multiple states, burn points as often as possible, knowing that math dictated this trend would happen.

Whatever points I have today, they are worth more this year than they will be worth next year or the next year or the next year. Sitting on points is often like holding a 1% CD during a period of double digit inflation. And, sitting on points exposes you to the unforeseeable (and guaranteed) changes states will make, often causing even higher inflation to your accumulated points.

I hope most folks just keep buying points and they don't apply. Makes it easier for those who want to hunt.

Summary - Point creep will not top out in my lifetime and not likely in the lifetime of anyone who is on Hunt Talk.

 

[BrentD]

...

Summary - Point creep will not top out in my lifetime and not likely in the lifetime of anyone who is on Hunt Talk.

I agree entirely - but big game hunting as we know it, WILL top out and decline as a result. Who is going to get into a game where you only (maybe) get a shot at a decent hunt from your death bed? What is short sighted here, is the agencies vision of the long game. Of course, they can't play the long game because that's not an evolutionarily stable strategy, but nonetheless, the long-term outlook for hunting and funding Game and Fish departments is going to implode one day.

 

[Zim]

I have made my position known to several state agencies.

How’d that work out for ya? Because attacking the minuscule & ever diminishing NR point holding segment of the equation ain’t gonna make any difference. Look at my results last ten years. You’ll still just get a pile of USUCS in your email box anyway. The 90’s are over. Replaced with social media, easy info & masses of applicants.

It was kinda fun when I began venturing out West on my own. With no hunt publications pointing me where to go. No GPS, just a paper map & compass. Still found big critters. Great tag every year. Enjoyed the challenge. All replaced with zero bonus tags in a decade. That’s the future.

 

[Deleted member 16014]

Who is going to get into a game where you only (maybe) get a shot at a decent hunt from your death bed?

What is a decent hunt in your opinion?

 

[Zim]

Points were never advertised as an investment with no chance of being devalued. Many people will have to be okay with the personal monetary loss of completely discretionary dollars to allow fair participation for all comers.

Lol, Yes we are completely OK with socialism. After all, this is 2022 America.

 

[Bluffgruff]

Lol, Yes we are completely OK with socialism. After all, this is 2022 America.

It's convenient to label a plan or idea that negatively affects you as an anathema in order to drum up support to squash an opposing view. What we are talking about is a pyramid scheme, not socialism. Pyramid schemes always collapse. Being close enough to the top of the pyramid that you just might be able to sell (cash in your points for numerous species in several states for hard to draw tags) before the collapse makes you less appealing as a recruiter for the pyramid scheme.
Nothing personal, there are numerous people out there in your shoes, but the sooner we get rid of the current point schemes, the less painful it will be.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

What is a decent hunt in your opinion?

I mean given the numbers @bigfin just posted, if WY tomorrow said no NR in limited units (so all NR could only apply for a general tag) it would probably take over 10 years to plow through NR WY applicants just going for general tags, (hard to know what effect the random draw would have).

CO would likely be as bad if not worse if we went from like 40% allocation currently to 10%... Montana is getting crazy.

I'm super pessimistic when it comes to draws, but I kinda figure if trends continue my points currently are going to be buying me "general" tags in 15 years.

I don't think there is an ice cubes chance in hell, I'd ever draw Unit 10 in CO, Red desert in WY, even if I applied all my life.

My current strategy is build points everywhere I can and then spend them when you can... I have a bunch of antelope points in WY right now, just because I haven't got around to planning a trip. I'd burn them tomorrow to hunt 25 if I could make the hunt fit in my schedule and that's were the point level was at.


But I think more to your point, I don't think that a decent hunt should denote a trophy unit with 10 tags.

 

[Huntnut60]

Although I'm still participating and will until points are no longer a thing, it's time to burn everyone's points in a huge fire so that we're all on equal footing, since no one deserves a tag more than another person.

Just playing by the rules that were made, and have been changed, years ago. I don’t deserve a tag more than another person, just a better chance.

 

[Zim]

It's convenient to label a plan or idea that negatively affects you as an anathema in order to drum up support to squash an opposing view. What we are talking about is a pyramid scheme, not socialism. Pyramid schemes always collapse. Being close enough to the top of the pyramid that you just might be able to sell (cash in your points for numerous species in several states for hard to draw tags) before the collapse makes you less appealing as a recruiter for the pyramid scheme.
Nothing personal, there are numerous people out there in your shoes, but the sooner we get rid of the current point schemes, the less painful it will be.

Yes and while they’re at it they need to do this to that social security pyramid scheme thing as well. Ya I was just about to call that an “anathema” too, before you used my word.

You do know you wouldn’t draw anything anyway due to the number of applicants in 2022? And the numbers are expanding exponentially. These WY stats borrowed from Rokslide……..

It’s the same or worse everywhere.

 

[Bluffgruff]

Yes and while they’re at it they need to do this to that social security pyramid scheme thing as well. Ya I was just about to call that an “anathema” too, before you used my word.

You do know you wouldn’t draw anything anyway due to the number of applicants in 2022? And the numbers are expanding exponentially. These WY stats borrowed from Rokslide……..

It’s the same or worse everywhere.

So far this year, all my tags/hunts are pure random draw or OTC. 4 hunts at this moment.

It would be nice if all the people who really wanted to hunt this year were on equal footing instead of being at the mercy of those people who have had it good for 30 years.

 

[Alpine01]

I mean given the numbers @bigfin just posted, if WY tomorrow said no NR in limited units (so all NR could only apply for a general tag) it would probably take over 10 years to plow through NR WY applicants just going for general tags, (hard to know what effect the random draw would have).

CO would likely be as bad if not worse if we went from like 40% allocation currently to 10%... Montana is getting crazy.

I'm super pessimistic when it comes to draws, but I kinda figure if trends continue my points currently are going to be buying me "general" tags in 15 years.

I don't think there is an ice cubes chance in hell, I'd ever draw Unit 10 in CO, Red desert in WY, even if I applied all my life.

My current strategy is build points everywhere I can and then spend them when you can... I have a bunch of antelope points in WY right now, just because I haven't got around to planning a trip. I'd burn them tomorrow to hunt 25 if I could make the hunt fit in my schedule and that's were the point level was at.


But I think more to your point, I don't think that a decent hunt should denote a trophy unit with 10 tags.

I can see your point. As a CO resident faced with a 10/90 split in MT my gut reaction is to declare quid pro quo and advocate for CO to take the same position relative to NR's. Overall I think that is bad and is the first step to eventual outlawing of all hunting. When NR $'s dry up and the true cost is levied on residents, then hunting for residents is going to get expensive. That will force out a lot of hunters and hunting then becomes a rich mans game. Hard to sell that to the masses and the reaction is to do away with hunting all together. As a new hunter, WY is effectively a no NR tag state already. It just isn't official policy yet.

 

[Deleted member 16014]

As a new hunter, WY is effectively a no NR tag state already. It just isn't official policy yet.

I don’t like the direction it’s going either, but this is simply not true. Ask @BuzzH ’s nephews.

You can hunt good cow elk tags most if not every year, in any habitat type you like. You can buy a bear tag today in MT/WY/ID and have great hunt for the next week+. A youth NR lope doe tag in WY is nearly free.
Yes you may have to wait several years to hunt bucks and bulls. Or maybe not, you might draw in the random.

When it’s all said and done, there will be more said than done.

 

[RobertD]

I can see your point. As a CO resident faced with a 10/90 split in MT my gut reaction is to declare quid pro quo and advocate for CO to take the same position relative to NR's. Overall I think that is bad and is the first step to eventual outlawing of all hunting. When NR $'s dry up and the true cost is levied on residents, then hunting for residents is going to get expensive. That will force out a lot of hunters and hunting then becomes a rich mans game. Hard to sell that to the masses and the reaction is to do away with hunting all together. As a new hunter, WY is effectively a no NR tag state already. It just isn't official policy yet.

I could feel my odds for next year improving as I read this post

 

[Alpine01]

I don’t like the direction it’s going either, but this is simply not true. Ask @BuzzH ’s nephews.

You can hunt good cow elk tags most if not every year, in any habitat type you like. You can buy a bear tag today in MT/WY/ID and have great hunt for the next week+. A youth NR lope doe tag in WY is nearly free.
Yes you may have to wait several years to hunt bucks and bulls. Or maybe not, you might draw in the random.

When it’s all said and done, there will be more said than done.

"You can buy a bear tag today in MT/WY/ID and have great hunt for the next week+." - Strawman argument, the discussion was about elk, and in particular, bull elk.

"A youth NR lope doe tag in WY is nearly free." - Strawman argument; I am not a youth and we are discussing bull elk.

I can hunt cow elk in CO probably every year if that is what I wanted to do for far, far less price of admission than WY. But that isn't the topic at hand, the discussion is about bull elk.

If you have better data than what Randy provided earlier in the thread, please share it, but a <0.5% chance of drawing (random) and 15+yrs of point creep in front of me is more 0% in my book than "decent odds".

And yes, there will someone that fills that 0.5%. Just like there is going to be that one person that wins the lottery. Good for that individual or that lucky few. Neither is a sound strategy for success, for hunting or retirement.

 

[Deleted member 16014]

"You can buy a bear tag today in MT/WY/ID and have great hunt for the next week+." - Strawman argument, the discussion was about elk, and in particular, bull elk.

"A youth NR lope doe tag in WY is nearly free." - Strawman argument; I am not a youth and we are discussing bull elk.

I can hunt cow elk in CO probably every year if that is what I wanted to do for far, far less price of admission than WY. But that isn't the topic at hand, the discussion is about bull elk.

If you have better data than what Randy provided earlier in the thread, please share it, but a <0.5% chance of drawing (random) and 15+yrs of point creep in front of me is more 0% in my book than "decent odds".

And yes, there will someone that fills that 0.5%. Just like there is going to be that one person that wins the lottery. Good for that individual or that lucky few. Neither is a sound strategy for success, for hunting or retirement.

Alright you win the internet.
I missed where you said you were referring specifically to bull elk, my apologies. On second reading I’m still not seeing it. Yeah, prospects are not great. But saying WY is a “no NR state” is hyperbolic and misleading.