Ok so we all know point creep is getting worse. One thing I have not seen talked about is that at some age all people quit hunting. And they either burn the points, drop out due to lack of physical conditions or of course die as we all do just a matter of when. What age do these things happen on average? And another thing is what age are the people who have points at the different levels top to bottom? That would be a great thing to know. GoHunt is that data available? Someone who has say 20 points and is age 40 is much different then 20 points and age 65. When I hear there are over 100 years of points to go through in a system well how many will be done hunting at say 20, 30, or 40 points? A lot or even most I would have to say. Even lets' say someone starts buying points at age 12 the lowest in many states. Are they really going to buy points for the next 30 years and go on their first elk hunt at age 42? I doubt it at least for most people. Yes there are some with unlimited resources but things change and what was the long term plan could get thrown out the window in the next recession or other life changing events. And we are getting less young people hunting then in the past so if that continues along with older people dropping out the point creep could correct itself somewhat. Might take another 10-20 years? Thoughts on where or when do we basically top out at in points?
Point Creep realistic topping out number
- Thread starter ChrisB
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WildWill
Well-known member
Wishful thinking point creep is here to stay. In my opinion the point systems collapsing would be more likely than creep stopping. I here about lack of hunter recruitment and there's almost certainly some truth in it but look at western hunting and participation hasn't just gone up it's sky rocketed in the last couple decades.
WapitiBob
Well-known member
I don't worry about it. I look at what I can draw and go hunt.
wyoelkfan15
Well-known member
I honestly dont think it will matter in the long term. I think for the high demand units and tags point creep will only continue to grow. I dont think the mechanism is in place for people to age out of the equation. Honestly, the only way I see for point creep to stop is for us to change public perception of what people actually value. Back in the day, when point systems were established, no one thought through the long term effects. The tragedy of the commons is not going to go away, the average age of the sheep/moose/high demand unit hunter will continue to grow, unless we can change public sentiment.
WapitiBob
Well-known member
OR Sheep app from a few years ago. Guys will apply till they die.
RobertD
Well-known member
Eventually a bunch of units could get maxed out around 40-50 points or whatever the "ceiling" would be, but I agree with Will here:
And I would add the closer we get to the ceiling, the closer we get to collapse, which will really be continued modification of existing systems until a state finally bites the bullet and converts to straight random.
But a lot of things can happen; everything will look remarkably different in ten or fifteen years and I think the most certain thing is the uncertainty.
And I would add the closer we get to the ceiling, the closer we get to collapse, which will really be continued modification of existing systems until a state finally bites the bullet and converts to straight random.
But a lot of things can happen; everything will look remarkably different in ten or fifteen years and I think the most certain thing is the uncertainty.
Preference point systems will all blow-up and change before i hit 80... it doesnt matter, only state i aim high in is wyoming and as resident i know sooner or later i will draw tags i want. Out of state nothing is guaranteed when i get enough points i use them on mid level at best tags, i like to hunt!
ImBillT
Well-known member
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The systems will collapse(or be heavily modified) before the creep hits the limit. Life expectancy is somewhere near 78. You can start applying on some point states by age 10. Is the limit 68pts or do enough people live past 78 to clog the system beyond 68pts? There aren’t enough tags to go around even on the poop units. Once people stop hoarding points in the units with 200yrs worth of applicants and start spreading into the low point units every unit will take a ton of points. I’ve heard plenty of stories of guys drawing a tag at an age where they could hardly get out of the truck. I doubt it ever occurred to them that their son or grandson could have drawn that tag and actually enjoyed it.
Montana eliminated points a long time ago, and then brought them back. AZ changed the system not to favor high point holders as much. It’s been done in the past, and it will be done again. The points you buy today are not likely what they will be twenty years from now. The tag you want today probably won’t be the same hunt twenty years from now either.
Montana eliminated points a long time ago, and then brought them back. AZ changed the system not to favor high point holders as much. It’s been done in the past, and it will be done again. The points you buy today are not likely what they will be twenty years from now. The tag you want today probably won’t be the same hunt twenty years from now either.
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QuazyQuinton
Well-known member
If you have that dataset, it would be interesting to see the age group breakdown. How many applicants in their 60's, 70's, 80's, etc.
Thats very interesting. All these people have lived longer then the average person. They must be doing something right. But to go on a physically hard hunt is another thing.
Its a interesting thing. How many will keep buying for the hope of getting that best tag. On the other side is the guys who can see they will never get that tag and will just burn the points. I hunted with a mid 60's man who burned more then 12 points on a hunt that took 0 to 1 point. He could see he would never get that great tag before he either was dead or was just not able to go on the hunt as it would just be to hard. I do think the point system collapses in the next decade or so. What becomes of it who knows but big changes will happen regardless.
BuzzH
Well-known member
Ehhh...not as big a deal as you think.
Old hunters tend to start realizing their wallets solve problems...and they can't take their money with them.
Outfitters, packers, horses and long range rifles allow a person to hunt well beyond 70...
TheGrayRider
Well-known member
If the points system crashes then the North American hunting model will move more quickly towards the European model. Only the empowered, connected, and wealthy will be able to hunt big game. Sheep hunts will easily run over $100,000 base cost. Premium elk hunts easily costing well over $75,000 base. The average man will be relegated to hunting squirrels, doves, and rabbits much like the current opportunities in many European countries. (Disclaimer: I personally spoke to a couple Italian young men in Italy about 4 years ago who told me they can only hunt small game.)
Another possible argument with eventual point collapse is the North American model could move to a model like Kenya. Big game hunting has been outlawed there since 1977 by their government. Wildlife and tourism have suffered exponentially since then.
I hope I am wrong on both of the above counts and I also hope that I am well past “permanently checking out of the hotel” if point collapse does happen???
Another possible argument with eventual point collapse is the North American model could move to a model like Kenya. Big game hunting has been outlawed there since 1977 by their government. Wildlife and tourism have suffered exponentially since then.
I hope I am wrong on both of the above counts and I also hope that I am well past “permanently checking out of the hotel” if point collapse does happen???
WapitiBob
Well-known member
There were more applicants 80 years old and older (116), than there were sheep tags (85) .
huntin24/7
Well-known member
It would be nice to see either no bonus point system or a bonus point system where you only get one extra chance for every year you don’t draw. I know it would suck for some guys with decades of preference points, but it feels like the problem is just going to get worse with the status quo.
On the other side is people like my father in law. Cancer at age 68. He is done hunting even if he lives another 5 years. Yes there are people with deep pockets that are old and can buy the things you stated. My father in law was one of those that is now out of that group. Reality is people are very sick in this country. The average age of death is going down not up. And the last years for many is not in a state of health that they could go on most kinds of hunts. I do plan on being the minority that can hunt beyond 70 but I know that most will not be able to. What we need to look at is on average. My Great-grandmother drove a car into her 90's. But not normal most people don't even live that long.
SummitsCalling
Member
Several realities will happen. The first is people will die holding points waiting for a glory tag that is no longer that. The second which we've seen already is those high point holders will petition the states to allow tag transfers, so those points will be used in a variety of ways. The third which we've already seen is the massive point creep, which is only getting worst. Those with higher points are moving down to reality and over spending. And the fourth, which includes individuals going to more than one state has spread and now a good amount of individuals have points in multiple states driving up the floor to get a tag.
Tough to answer really. The best solution for the next generation is eliminate all bonus/pref points and go to a full lottery. Many states are too dependant on the money coming in now from bad fiscal spending, I don't forsee that changing.
Tough to answer really. The best solution for the next generation is eliminate all bonus/pref points and go to a full lottery. Many states are too dependant on the money coming in now from bad fiscal spending, I don't forsee that changing.
RobertD
Well-known member
Point systems collapsing doesn't guarantee a Texas/Euro model. That would take big shifts in game populations and/or land ownership. Point systems could convert to something like a random or more randomized draw, for example, without changing the NAM.
The NAM drives the system, not the other way round.
WildWill
Well-known member
Gotta agree the point systems collapsing don't necessarily spell the doom of the North American model. Switching to random would definitely level the playing field. Also if state's would limit non residents to applying for only one species annually like, Idaho does for the big 3, that would help a ton.
WildWill
Well-known member
Your FIL will be in my prayers. But look at @WapitiBob last post. More 80 year olds applied then there were actual tags and there's a pile of guys behind them and even more behind those. Attrition might slow the tide but it won't stop it.
