Non-resident outfitter license (MT) Bill is up for hearing 2/2/2021 (SB 143)

[shoots-straight]

Rod and Eric, I appreciate your comments and the fact you feel the way you do about your business. I'd have a beer with either of you any day.

I still don't think our country should embrace socialism by giving your business advantages for public resources. Where will this end?

 

[Big Shooter]

WIbiggame a.k.a. “Math Wizard” (kidding), there was a little more to it than that. We actually went back further and into the Obama years when guided Non-Resident participation numbers were down due to his outstanding economy (cough, cough). We felt that would reflect a more accurate and fair number for all involved.

 

[WIbiggame]

WIbiggame a.k.a. “Math Wizard” (kidding), there was a little more to it than that. We actually went back further and into the Obama years when guided Non-Resident participation numbers were down due to his outstanding economy (cough, cough). We felt that would reflect a more accurate and fair number for all involved.

Ok so it was 13 numbers to add up than divide by 13 still not hard math. And I was going off what was said about the average at the meeting by Mr Minard of 3 years.

Also I don't fancy myself a "math wizard" just someone who can add, subtract, multiply, divide and understand cause and effect. But it appears that I might in fact be a math wizard, bc yourself Eric and Bwalker can't seem to figure out that there is no mathematical way that this won't hurt NR DIY draw odds.

I will say tho I admire you putting your real name up and respect you having respectful dialog you and Eric have my respect for that.

 

[Sioux33]

As a resident, public land, DIY guy, one of my concerns is when we start commercializing wildlife and reserving tags for the wealthy, what happens? Outfitters know they can take on more clients because they've got their tags reserved just for them. What do they do then? Go knocking on doors, tying up more leases, driving the lease values up. All of a sudden, they're outbidding Block Mgmt properties 3x over and before you know it, BM is worthless. At that point, all of us residents who were promised more space on overly crowded public end up having less land available to us, while the outfitters laugh all the way to the bank.

And did I see that right that there's a $15k cap on access agreements funded by this bill, wonder why that is???

As a resident, that's my fear, this will kill block management and what we have now will be nothing but a thing of the past.

 

[idahohuntr]

I think there are two forces that should bring folks to the table to compromise. First - it appears there is nothing to stop this bill getting approved in some form. Second - its hard to imagine another initiative not passing with an even greater margin if(more like when) a repeal of this bill is put to a vote of the people. Similar to the current bill putting a 15k cap on access agreements, a well thought out initiative could include some things to absolutely hammer guides and outfitters.

So rather than this whipsaw of tag allocation and beating each other up, is there any possibility for a reasonable compromise?

Outfitters suggesting they are entitled to 60% of the tags is absurd. 45% is absurd. But I do see some rationale in providing a small set of tags to ensure outfitters can manage some level of predictability. 5 or 10% of the tags seems reasonable, and of course they then have access to any tag holder who happens to draw from the random 90-95% pool. Drop the 15k (or any) access agreement cap as that obviously will screw every DIY hunter, R and NR. Keep an extra premium for the guaranteed tags (not 200...more like 1k) and dedicate all that money to hunter access.

Another idea...tie BM enrollment/public access to the outfitter allocation. Decreases in public access = statutory decrease in tag allocation to outfitters.

I'm sure there are folks from all sides much more familiar with MT politics that have far better insights...I just hate to see an us v. them if there is some reasonable compromise. And in case I haven't been crystal clear...outfitters taking half the pie and suggesting that is generous of them is a non-starter. Its the exact attitude that would have me licking my chops to stick it to them at the next initiative. MOGA ought to think long and hard about compromise, because they might have a favorable Gov and legislature today...the long-term trends in Western states are not at all favorable to them.

 

[huntin24/7]

So I keep hearing that 40-50%+ of non residents use outfitters anyways. If that’s the case, why would they need the 60% or the new “whittled down” 40-45% guaranteed tags for outfitters when they already get that much business anyways? What business ever has a guarantee on how much business or how many customers they’ll gave each year? I’ll pass on your polished turd.

 

[Gerald Martin]

I disagree completely with the rationale that outfitters deserve a certain number of tags to provide economic certainty.
Where’s my government protection to ensure I have enough construction work to make my business successful?
Who made outfitters or anyone else so special they deserve to be picked as winners at the expense of others?

This is the kind of hypocrisy that makes a mockery of the word “conservative” when it’s used by the Montana Republican Party of today.

 

[Wildabeest]

I know very few people on here (other than the 3 MOGA defenders) actually believes the bullshit that NR DIY odds will not change. It’s just common sense that you can’t guarantee a bunch of tags to 45% of applicants without negatively impacting the odds of the other 55%.

So I’ve attempted below to mathematically expose the major flaw in their “MOGA math”. In essence, they are mixing and matching “success” on one side with “applications” on the other. They are trying to make you believe that if they are guaranteed the same number of tags as previously have gone to guided hunters, then DIY hunter odds would not change. Here’s why that is fake news!.

According to FWP website for 2018-2020, the combined draw success rate for NR Elk Combo, NR Deer Combo and NR Big Game Combo averaged around 75%. The number of tags awarded averaged just north of 26,500 and the number of applicants averaged just under 36,000. So to keep the math simple, let’s use 36,000 applications @ 75% success rate which equates to 27,000 tags issued. The actual numbers are irrelevant - it’s about the math.

Now let’s take MOGA at their word and assume that 45% of those tags went to guided hunters. That would be 12,150 tags (again, the % is really irrelevant because the flaw is in the math). What they aren’t telling us is that means that 16,200 (12,150 / 0.75) people applied intending to hunt with an outfitter but 4,050 failed to draw a tag. Those people are not going to simply go away! Instead, they will be going over to compete with DIY NR’s in the general draw!

So then you have 19,800 NR DIY applicants (55% of 36,000) plus 4,050 guided overflow going into the general draw. That’s 23,850 applicants competing for 14,850 remaining tags (27,000 total tags - 12,150 set aside). That yields a success rate of 62% for the general draw. Far less than the 75% that everybody would see under the existing method.

And here’s the other dirty little secret that MOGA is not talking about. Assuming 67% of those 4,050 overflow guided applicants draw in the general draw, that would equate to 2,713 more clients that outfitters would service, assuming they still hunt with an outfitter even though their tag doesn’t require it. I think that’s a fair assumption since they likely intended to hunt with a guide when they entered the set-aside draw. That’s all net new business for outfitters, not “stabilization”.

There’s numerous other things that could also be factored in to the math given that the number of applicants seems to be increasing and other dynamic factors. But the math above is pure math using apples to apples comparisons of what would happen if the new rules were applied to the previous years’ data vs. making assumptions about the future. The “slight of hand” that is being put forth in “MOGA math” is diverting your attention away from those 4,050 unsuccessful applicants who intended to hunt with an outfitter. They slid them right up their sleeve and nobody saw it! Except us!

I challenge the MOGA defenders to present any “alternative math” to disprove mine. Your assertion that “NR DIY odds will not change” is completely and totally false. I’ll leave it open as to whether that was intentional or whether you simply don’t understand the basic algebra that we all learn in middle school. If the latter, perhaps you should divert some of the millions you pay your lobbyists to hire a middle school math student.

Greg Henderson
Montana property owner and taxpayer, and non-resident DIY hunter

 

[Wildabeest]

So I keep hearing that 40-50%+ of non residents use outfitters anyways. If that’s the case, why would they need the 60% or the new “whittled down” 40-45% guaranteed tags for outfitters when they already get that much business anyways? What business ever has a guarantee on how much business or how many customers they’ll gave each year? I’ll pass on your polished turd.

The stated “why” is to ensure that they maintain status quo (aka “stabilize”). The real “why” is demonstrated in my math exercise above. 2,500+ net new client hunts per year above and beyond the “status quo”. If you assume $5000 outfitter fee per hunt, that’s $12.5M extra cash in their pocket! And although they claim that money will be going back into MT small businesses, a lot of it is going to go to paying their high priced lobbyists to get them even more perks, and locking down more private land thus shutting out more land and access for the DIY hunter.

 

[sneakypete]

So far this conversation has focused only on the effects of NR’s trying to draw a general tag. The effects don’t stop there. This bill will also have a negative impact on a DIY NR’s ability to draw a special permit for a limited area since a general tag is a prerequisite for being able to draw a permit.
Even though he can buy bonus points he will only have the possibility of drawing on years he draws a general license.
An outfitted hunter is going to have an advantage since he is guaranteed to be entered in the special permit draw every year since his prerequisite tags are guaranteed.

EXACTLY!

 

[timmy]

In all honesty you shouldn’t be able to hunt a 5 week rut hunt as a nonresident nearly every year. Residents shouldn’t either, I can see this isn’t going to change and the bill isn’t going to fix things, but it is funny to see people wanting things to get better and then freak out when you suggest taking any opportunity away. Montana is in a bad place and it’s not going to improve. Most states it takes a lot of years of applying or a lifetime to get a hunt with favorable season dates. It isn’t right for the wildlife but outfitters, nonresident diy guys, residents, and hunting egos that are trying to make a living off of hunting all continue to fight each other for a resource that can’t handle what we are doing.

 

[Wildabeest]

In all honesty you shouldn’t be able to hunt a 5 week rut hunt as a nonresident nearly every year. Residents shouldn’t either, I can see this isn’t going to change and the bill isn’t going to fix things, but it is funny to see people wanting things to get better and then freak out when you suggest taking any opportunity away. Montana is in a bad place and it’s not going to improve. Most states it takes a lot of years of applying or a lifetime to get a hunt with favorable season dates. It isn’t right for the wildlife but outfitters, nonresident diy guys, residents, and hunting egos that are trying to make a living off of hunting all continue to fight each other for a resource that can’t handle what we are doing.

I would be totally supportive of changing the seasons and issuing less tags (although the real solution would also need to include better control on the geographic distribution of those tags), so long as it was done equally for all NR hunters irrespective of whether they are DIY or outfitted. I think the real issue people have is not with the lower draw odds, but more with the fact that one “class” of NR hunter gets better odds at the expense of another “class” getting worse odds. And the political shenanigans behind the whole thing.

 

[sneakypete]

I know very few people on here (other than the 3 MOGA defenders) actually believes the bullshit that NR DIY odds will not change. It’s just common sense that you can’t guarantee a bunch of tags to 45% of applicants without negatively impacting the odds of the other 55%.

So I’ve attempted below to mathematically expose the major flaw in their “MOGA math”. In essence, they are mixing and matching “success” on one side with “applications” on the other. They are trying to make you believe that if they are guaranteed the same number of tags as previously have gone to guided hunters, then DIY hunter odds would not change. Here’s why that is fake news!.

According to FWP website for 2018-2020, the combined draw success rate for NR Elk Combo, NR Deer Combo and NR Big Game Combo averaged around 75%. The number of tags awarded averaged just north of 26,500 and the number of applicants averaged just under 36,000. So to keep the math simple, let’s use 36,000 applications @ 75% success rate which equates to 27,000 tags issued. The actual numbers are irrelevant - it’s about the math.

Now let’s take MOGA at their word and assume that 45% of those tags went to guided hunters. That would be 12,150 tags (again, the % is really irrelevant because the flaw is in the math). What they aren’t telling us is that means that 16,200 (12,150 / 0.75) people applied intending to hunt with an outfitter but 4,050 failed to draw a tag. Those people are not going to simply go away! Instead, they will be going over to compete with DIY NR’s in the general draw!

So then you have 19,800 NR DIY applicants (55% of 36,000) plus 4,050 guided overflow going into the general draw. That’s 23,850 applicants competing for 14,850 remaining tags (27,000 total tags - 12,150 set aside). That yields a success rate of 62% for the general draw. Far less than the 75% that everybody would see under the existing method.

And here’s the other dirty little secret that MOGA is not talking about. Assuming 67% of those 4,050 overflow guided applicants draw in the general draw, that would equate to 2,713 more clients that outfitters would service, assuming they still hunt with an outfitter even though their tag doesn’t require it. I think that’s a fair assumption since they likely intended to hunt with a guide when they entered the set-aside draw. That’s all net new business for outfitters, not “stabilization”.

There’s numerous other things that could also be factored in to the math given that the number of applicants seems to be increasing and other dynamic factors. But the math above is pure math using apples to apples comparisons of what would happen if the new rules were applied to the previous years’ data vs. making assumptions about the future. The “slight of hand” that is being put forth in “MOGA math” is diverting your attention away from those 4,050 unsuccessful applicants who intended to hunt with an outfitter. They slid them right up their sleeve and nobody saw it! Except us!

I challenge the MOGA defenders to present any “alternative math” to disprove mine. Your assertion that “NR DIY odds will not change” is completely and totally false. I’ll leave it open as to whether that was intentional or whether you simply don’t understand the basic algebra that we all learn in middle school. If the latter, perhaps you should divert some of the millions you pay your lobbyists to hire a middle school math student.

Greg Henderson
Montana property owner and taxpayer, and non-resident DIY hunter

Greg,
Well written and said! Thank from another Montana non resident landowner and taxpayer- and DIY hunter!

 

[sneakypete]

God all this makes me depressed. Never thought starting to apply for points 6 years ago would turn into this complete shitshow.

The direction it's headed makes me sad for my kids.

As a non resident property owner that didn’t draw twice in the past three years the shitshow is annoying to say the least!

 

[Ben Lamb]

I know very few people on here (other than the 3 MOGA defenders) actually believes the bullshit that NR DIY odds will not change. It’s just common sense that you can’t guarantee a bunch of tags to 45% of applicants without negatively impacting the odds of the other 55%.

So I’ve attempted below to mathematically expose the major flaw in their “MOGA math”. In essence, they are mixing and matching “success” on one side with “applications” on the other. They are trying to make you believe that if they are guaranteed the same number of tags as previously have gone to guided hunters, then DIY hunter odds would not change. Here’s why that is fake news!.

According to FWP website for 2018-2020, the combined draw success rate for NR Elk Combo, NR Deer Combo and NR Big Game Combo averaged around 75%. The number of tags awarded averaged just north of 26,500 and the number of applicants averaged just under 36,000. So to keep the math simple, let’s use 36,000 applications @ 75% success rate which equates to 27,000 tags issued. The actual numbers are irrelevant - it’s about the math.

Now let’s take MOGA at their word and assume that 45% of those tags went to guided hunters. That would be 12,150 tags (again, the % is really irrelevant because the flaw is in the math). What they aren’t telling us is that means that 16,200 (12,150 / 0.75) people applied intending to hunt with an outfitter but 4,050 failed to draw a tag. Those people are not going to simply go away! Instead, they will be going over to compete with DIY NR’s in the general draw!

So then you have 19,800 NR DIY applicants (55% of 36,000) plus 4,050 guided overflow going into the general draw. That’s 23,850 applicants competing for 14,850 remaining tags (27,000 total tags - 12,150 set aside). That yields a success rate of 62% for the general draw. Far less than the 75% that everybody would see under the existing method.

And here’s the other dirty little secret that MOGA is not talking about. Assuming 67% of those 4,050 overflow guided applicants draw in the general draw, that would equate to 2,713 more clients that outfitters would service, assuming they still hunt with an outfitter even though their tag doesn’t require it. I think that’s a fair assumption since they likely intended to hunt with a guide when they entered the set-aside draw. That’s all net new business for outfitters, not “stabilization”.

There’s numerous other things that could also be factored in to the math given that the number of applicants seems to be increasing and other dynamic factors. But the math above is pure math using apples to apples comparisons of what would happen if the new rules were applied to the previous years’ data vs. making assumptions about the future. The “slight of hand” that is being put forth in “MOGA math” is diverting your attention away from those 4,050 unsuccessful applicants who intended to hunt with an outfitter. They slid them right up their sleeve and nobody saw it! Except us!

I challenge the MOGA defenders to present any “alternative math” to disprove mine. Your assertion that “NR DIY odds will not change” is completely and totally false. I’ll leave it open as to whether that was intentional or whether you simply don’t understand the basic algebra that we all learn in middle school. If the latter, perhaps you should divert some of the millions you pay your lobbyists to hire a middle school math student.

Greg Henderson
Montana property owner and taxpayer, and non-resident DIY hunter

Add to that, section 7, sub 2 which raises the cap on the B11's from 4600 to 6600.

That increases the available pool of NR B11 licenses to about 90% for the outfitter tags. With a pool of 6600, rather than 4600, they end up with access to the 2000 reserved B11's that are under the Landowner Sponsor tag (remember, a lot of outfitters are also large landowners, and it is perfectly legal to accept outfitting and guide fees for these sponsored tags), and that gives them 3960 out of the 4600, meaning that if the full 60% gets eaten up and the landowner reserveds all get eaten up, then there will be a grand total of 640 Non Resident B11 licenses that go into the general draw.

 

[winmag]

Since the hearing is public record, I thought people might like to know the 46 folks who, forlorn and hat in hand, voiced their support for this bill at the first hearing. By order of appearance:

Jason Ellsworth - Senate District 43
Scott Kerns - House District 23
Chuck Rein - Montana Outfitters and Guides Association
Mac Minard - Montana Outfitters and Guides Association
Dusty Crary - 7 Lazy P Outfitters
Donna McDonald - Upper Canyon Outfitters
Eric Albus - Milk River Outfitters
Garrett Hanson - K Bar L Ranch
Richard Powell - Cody Carr's Hunting Adventures
Cris Gentry - Madison Foods & Madison Smokehouse, Ennis, MT
John Way - Montana Way Outfitters, The Tackle Shop, Ennis, MT, Montana Board of Outfitters
Raylee Honeycutt - Montana Stockgrowers Association
Roy Jacobs - [citizen whom I presume just hates non-residents]
Sandy Sallee - Black Mountain Outfitters
Amy Mills - Mills Wilderness Adventures
Charles Denowh - United Property Owners of Montana
Craig Neal - Broken Hart Adventures
Joseph Haas - A Lazy H Outfitters
Paul Ellis - Sunday Creek Outfitters
Rich Birdsell - Northern Rockies Outfitters
Scott Sallee - Black Mountain Outfitters
Cody Carr - Cody Carr's Hunting Adventures
James Whitescarver - Montana Rivers and Ridges Outfitter
Phillip Bowers - Lone Wolf Guide Service
Brett Landwehr - Landwehr Outfitters
Lanae Guyer - Dome Mountain Ranch
Dylan Johnson - 7 Lazy P Outfitters
Skip Halmes - Lepley Creek Outfitters
Kenny Low - K Lazy 3 Outfitters
Wes Sargent - Cayuse Hills Outfitters
Cameron Mayo - Absaroka-Beartooth Outfitters
Brian Mills - Mills Wilderness Adventures
Charlie Rein - Rein Anchor Ranch
Lydia Sargent - Cayuse Hills Outfitters
Lisa Leyo - Leyo Outfitting
Turk Mills - Mills Wilderness Adventures
Joel Leyo - Leyo Outfitting
Travis Barker - Ford Creek Ranch
Scott Vollmer - Scott Vollmer Outfitting LLC
Rod Paschke - Sizzlin’ S Outfitters
Michael Beattie - Big Racks of Montana [don’t google search for this on your work computer…]
Bruce “Butch” Galespie - Senate District 9
Wagner D Harmon - Montana River Ranch
Colter Heckman - Montana Safaris
Tim Linehan - Linehan Outfitters
Todd France - Blast N Cast Outfitters

I'd like to give a gold star to the following outfitters for having more than one person from the same outfitter show up to voice their support for the bill, but not back-to-back in the line of course, lest the committee members recognize the common last name or ranch brand on their shirt :

7 Lazy P Outfitters
Cody Carr's Hunting Adventures
Black Mountain Outfitters
Mills Wilderness Adventures
Cayuse Hills Outfitters
Leyo Outfitting

 

[get-n-birdy]

Wildebeest is spot on and good math doesn't lie, verses creative, perceived math. But perception is 9/10ths of reality.

It's a brilliant maneuver and one that's done looking at trends and future's. Now is the time to hedge the bet on demand while it's still somewhat "relatively" low and not fully recognized yet. Getting locked in at a percentage rate now burns in a brand of what can/will be a significant portion of tags in the future when the demand far exceeds supply. As demand grows and other factors contribute to low quality, the service only becomes more and more valuable. Having half the pie, give or take, it doesn't take a genius to see that writing on that wall. We all know human nature isn't prone to want less, the greedy only want more, even after we get everything we want. It's just human nature. A greased pig sliding down a steep slope prep'd with pig ch!t on a foundation of banana peels doesn't slow down, it only accelerates. It's just the nature of physics and knowing which gears to grease and how much ch!t is required to grease them and when. It's being done to benefit one group, don't sugar coat the math and tell people to pickup the left side of the turd because that's the clean end. Shoot straight and cowboy up with true intent. The fertilizer is being set into play for planting future seeds that's for sure.

Don't hate outfitters and refuse to say they are enemies of diy'ers, but when a guide posts a video on the u'tuber with such disdain for nr diy guys, using references that are singling them/ us/we out as problems and people who don't pay for anything, I take serious issue with that. A nr who buys a license at a highly inflated rate, then comes and funnels cash into communities is still a paying participant supporting game agencies and local businesses. That's a far cry from using a public resource for free. If the math skills and reasoning logic in that video are a representation of Montana guides, the outfitters might want to ask the state for more money for their education system instead of locked in tag percentages. One thing that really stood out to me was one comment made from a guy who is probably a good, hardworking guy, was when he said..."it's hard". My youngest kid went on his 1st elk in co this past fall with plates and screws in his leg after having 8 years with 6 surgeries on his leg when he was younger. You want hard, that kids life's been hard yet he never complains and knows there are many in his situation who have it much, much worse off. He enjoyed being able to walk up mountains and still having that ability. So much of this stuff is perspective. I get where the outfitters are coming from to a point, but highly doubt the motives are pure with such a slanted, seemingly deceptive narrative. Call a spade a spade. Am so sick of living in this lala land of everyone gets a handout. There's just no end to it. Diy nr's get the scraps at a premium price, and are usually thrilled with the opportunity, how are we the bad guys in all this?

My dad just turned 87, he's seen this stuff coming for years and been very vocal about it, so it's no surprise. See why more and more guys get out of hunting and are fishing more.

 

[BWALKER77]

Ok so it was 13 numbers to add up than divide by 13 still not hard math. And I was going off what was said about the average at the meeting by Mr Minard of 3 years.

Also I don't fancy myself a "math wizard" just someone who can add, subtract, multiply, divide and understand cause and effect. But it appears that I might in fact be a math wizard, bc yourself Eric and Bwalker can't seem to figure out that there is no mathematical way that this won't hurt NR DIY draw odds.

I will say tho I admire you putting your real name up and respect you having respectful dialog you and Eric have my respect for that.

Your wrong on one point. I hope it does hurt DYI NR.

 

[Eric Albus]

gerald, that is a thought that has not entered into any conversation on our side one time, ever, even once...... my guess is that if anyone could do that math(way over my head) the advantage is so miniscule I can't even find a word to explain it. LE draw tags? Odds of drawing are pathetic.... "up to 10%" in a LE situation ? If you could guarantee me drawing "up to 10%" of the NR sheep take in 622 I would not have to worry about taking a sheep hunter very often.
I have had clients draw a breaks elk tag for rifle( I have had exactly 2 clients in about 20 years draw an Elk Permit in Area 622 that applied for it, out of 20-30 that used to annually apply) I have taken a few more, including a couple residents who drew the tag then called me. Generally I recommend to an successful permit applicant to go hunt on their own for a few days, then if they are in a panic call and we will work out a deal where they don't go broke and they don't break me.

If a bill was run to kill all of us(Outfitters) the opposition would have you all in Up in arms....saying don't vote for this, they are gaining an advantage.

winmag, thank you for spelling my name correctly...however I am feeling stalked. I can assure you that next time I will encourage those who came together to sign in chronological order so as not to create conspiracy theories.

Greg, the flaw is in that 45% of the NR take is a number on a dart board. The most ever taken with the OSL(only hard info available) was around 23-2400 deer and 5800-5900 elk/deer combo. We are hoping to get the BoO to give us a count on what current numbers are as we do not have this, last number for researching this they gave MOGA blew us out of the water. The general consensus amongst us is that there has been no growth, at least not on the Eastern side of the state, as acreage leased has not increased and those numbers(around 6.2-6.4 M) are current.

BWalker there are a lot of Resident hunters who feel the way you do. I hazard to say the majority.

This whole thing boils down still to the lack of quality on accessible lands. If public land had quality nobody would care one iota what a landowner/outfitter/DIY was doing. Instead we sit and are pitted one against the other.

This will be the last I post on this thread. I can only stand seeing a dead horse beaten so many times.

 

[huntin24/7]

Your wrong on one point. I hope it does hurt DYI NR.

Curious why you would hope it hurts DIY non res hunters? Sounds pretty selfish.