NM draw is open.

[jarmour1]

I'm applying thos year! Don't worry I'm not applying for any of the glory tags just putting in for some of the higher draw odd units. Going on my first out west elk hunt this year if I don't draw NM I'm going over the counter in CO with the orange army lol.

 

[ImBillT]

I'm applying thos year! Don't worry I'm not applying for any of the glory tags just putting in for some of the higher draw odd units. Going on my first out west elk hunt this year if I don't draw NM I'm going over the counter in CO with the orange army lol.

Be careful with the highest odds units in NM. NM has some really fantastic elk hunts, but they are all low draw odds. When I started hunting NM a lot of lower tier rifle elk tags were 30%-50% draw odds, and a couple were 100%. I was okay with hunting the lower tier because I could hunt it a few times and learn the unit. That is not the case today. The highest odds rifle tag in the state for a non-resident is now at 18% draw odds. Worse than 1/5 years. It also has very low harvest success(14%).

In contrast, CO has 76 rifle hunts with bull or either-sex tags you can draw with 0 pts with a higher probability than 18%. 46 of those hunts have better than 14% harvest success. 27 of those hunts are considered by goHunt to have equal or better trophy potential to the easiest to draw rifle hunt in NM. That’s right, with 0pts, you have 27 limited entry rifle elk options in CO that are better than NM’s easiest to draw rifle hunt, and you’re more likely to draw it as well. We haven’t even gotten into cow tags(you’re not allowed a cow tag in NM) or OTC yet. You can easily pick a unit with 100% odds cow tags during an OTC bull hunt. Get a cow tag and go hunt and decided if you want to try an OTC bull hunt in that unit. Why waste a season hunting a unit in NM that is potentially even worse, knowing you won’t even be able to come back for five years?

I’m not saying don’t apply in NM. I’m saying to be careful with the absolute bottom tier. It’s almost $80 in non-refundables now. When I started it was $0 non-refundable. You’ll also loose that $80, 5-10 times between elk tags now, and that’s for bottom to mid-tier, so add $400-$800 to your tag price.

There are excellent hunts in NM, but the state has very low supply. There are far fewer elk there than in CO, WY, ID, MT, and even fewer than AZ. When I started hunting NM demand was much lower. CO was more expensive to apply and locked me out of the top end. Now days, CO is a similar price to apply and still has 100% odds tags. The main reason to apply in NM is that CO has locked you out of the top end, and NM gives you a 1%-5%(1/100-1/20) chance at their top end. For NM’s lower tier hunts, CO has them beat by a long shot. Don’t be so sure that OTC CO is a worse hunt than NM’s lower tier. There will be more hunters, but there will also be more elk.

 

[Chingon]

Agreed, CO is the ticket!

 

[dandredeshon]

Got the e-mail from G&F, time to look at 2023.

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[dandredeshon]

You're a key inspiration for me. Haha, it's all a long shot but it's a chance for new adventures

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[Hilljackoutlaw]

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[Hilljackoutlaw]

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[WildWill]

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What happened foot in mouth?

 

[Chama Grande]

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fourteen first 'posts' in less than an hour? this is either a well known HT alt-account about to come in with a banger of a troll post or someone looking for honey holes.

Let's see where this goes

 

[ccc23454]

fourteen first 'posts' in less than an hour? this is either a well known HT alt-account about to come in with a banger of a troll post or someone looking for honey holes.

Let's see where this goes

I am going with he trys to sell something, been a lot of that lately

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

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Randomized Draw Constant #3- adding erroneous characters to ye entry improves draw for they who won’t.

 

[TheGreek]

Got the e-mail from G&F, time to look at 2023.

6B here I come! @Nick87 we can carpool!

 

[cfree]

There are excellent hunts in NM, but the state has very low supply. There are far fewer elk there than in CO, WY, ID, MT, and even fewer than AZ. When I started hunting NM demand was much lower. CO was more expensive to apply and locked me out of the top end. Now days, CO is a similar price to apply and still has 100% odds tags. The main reason to apply in NM is that CO has locked you out of the top end, and NM gives you a 1%-5%(1/100-1/20) chance at their top end. For NM’s lower tier hunts, CO has them beat by a long shot. Don’t be so sure that OTC CO is a worse hunt than NM’s lower tier. There will be more hunters, but there will also be more elk.

Very good points about NM draw odds and units over the years. However, NM has double the elk population of AZ. NM was really fun and much easier to draw 10+ years ago. Now its lottery odds.

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

6B here I come! @Nick87 we can carpool!

You guys take that!

 

[Nick87]

6B here I come! @Nick87 we can carpool!

I'd like to be heading a fair but further south.

 

[ImBillT]

Agreed, CO is the ticket!

Not what I said. Lol.

A poor summary of what I said would be “CO has things you can do with 100% probability that is better than the bottom 10%-25% of what NM has to offer(in terms of rifle elk hunts) and the bottom 25% of NM rifle elk hunts is roughly 5%-18% draw odds.” The equation is totally different for residents, and slightly different for people who have hunted those bottom tier units multiple times before, but would be new to CO. Additionally, I would not discourage someone looking for a top tier elk hunt from applying in NM. The top tier of NM is competitive with the top tier of any state, AND THE BEAUTY OF NM IS THAT EVERYONE HAS THE SAME CHANCE(well, it does depend on what pool they’re in). In CO, if you’re not within a few points of max, forget the top tier, you’ll never get there. In short(which I’m not very good at) NM is no longer a place to apply for opportunity hunts. It’s questionable whether it’s even a place to apply for mid tier hunts. My opinion is that if you’re a non-resident looking to apply for elk in NM, you need to be aiming high with the understanding that you will be rolling an $80 die 20-60 times and may never win. If you’re not up for that, don’t bother. If you’re up for that, then more power to you, and if you get lucky you’ll be glad you did.

Now if you can’t keep your finger off the trigger when you see a 140”-160” mule deer(me), then you can spread the value out a little bit. I’ve been fairly successful at shooting mule deer under 160” in easy to draw units. Last year I didn’t even draw my historically 100% tag, and it was the first time I’ve had to donate my $80ish. Of course with app fees for more than one species it was a fair bit over $100.

 

[Nick87]

I am going with he trys to sell something, been a lot of that lately

I'd bet money on it.

 

[ImBillT]

Very good points about NM draw odds and units over the years. However, NM has double the elk population of AZ. NM was really fun and much easier to draw 10+ years ago. Now its lottery odds.

Hmmm. I stand corrected!

I haven’t checked the actual numbers, but my draw odds for AZ tend to span a wider range with the easier to draw end being higher, so I assumed there were more tags. Turns out NM issues about 1.5X as many tags as AZ, so they probably have more elk, even if they harvest more aggressively.

CO still has a lot more elk than anywhere else in the country. If you’re looking for opportunity, that’s where you should be.

“Any tag in X state is a good tag” is flawed logic, especially in NM.

“Any tag is a good tag” is different logic altogether, and not necessarily wrong, but I’d take a lot of hunts in CO over the bottom end of NM. I’d take the top 30% of NM over anything I can draw in CO.

 

[WildWill]

Anyone know when the bear and turkey results will be out?

 

[bulldawg10]

It will be interesting how much the draw odds decrease again this year. Not from lack of tags but from continued increased interest in elk and other big game hunting for essential the same number of tags.

I got lucky and drew a 1% tag last year...maybe lightning will strike two years in a row.